1. Decisions for the Decade How to make smart long-term decisions?
All Participate!
(...expect confusion...)
designed by Pablo Suarez & Janot Mendler de Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)
for the World Bank (Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development) 1

2. ? A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info
IPCC Latest Report
Allegedly Actionable Info
Audience: Passive Role ?
A Model of the Usual Experience

3. LET’S
PLAY!

4. BASIC GAME RULES 1. Simplification of reality
No challenging the rules!
Decisions are individual
But team consultations welcome
We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years
Game is a system that models complex dynamics of the real world. Players’ decisions give inputs to the system. Input + external factors (like rains) determine the consequences.
Each person has a provincial board and each table has a national board
These board games embody the idea that as we strive to increase prosperity we must make some tough investment decisions
Game rules… 4

5. WINNERS & LOSERS Losers: Most red stones (humanitarian crises)
Winning Player: No crisis, and Most beans for prosperity
Winning Team: Fewest crises (if tied: Most beans for prosperity)
Cheap & easy technology
Malawi: go to villages w/ message. All you need is [equip]

6. Your goal: create a region ~ and a country
Land = arable, Production = steady
Water management – taken care of
Market brings in money
Your goal: create a region ~ and a country
resilient to climate change…

7. challenged by disasters : Devastating droughts …
But your vision is
challenged by disasters :
Devastating droughts …
You can ask the participants to share their experience sharing: where – how frequent?
Effect of drought used for program Rwanda / Kenya. Photo/FILE  (Bob Koigi)

8. You can ask the participants to share their experience sharing: where – how frequent?
Extreme floods…
Flooding occasioned by heavy rains in East Africa (Kenya Red Cross)

9. DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
FLOOD PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
As governors, you have a budget of 10 beans.
Green beans are provincial budgets
White beans are national budgets
Your goal is prosperity. To achieve it you must decide how much you want to invest in development or protection.
Discussion: What is meant by prosperity?
Discussion: What investments might help lead to prosperity?
But in order for our investments in development to be productive, to earn prosperity points, we have to protect against disasters as well – droughts and floods.
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean 9

10. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…
Lets take one of our investments out of productive development and put it into drought protection.
This means we can earn at most 9 prosperity points, because 1 is now invested in drought protection 10

11. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…
When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
In the game, when a drought occurs we “consume” or “use up” a bean invested for drought protection..
Just move it to the used bean area on your board. 11

12. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…
When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
So if just one drought were to occur, since we had invested in enough drought protection to keep our development investments safe, we earn 9 prosperity points.
If just 1 drought occurs in the decade…
…you gain 9 Prosperity Points! 12

13. FLOOD PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment
If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
But, what if we had a second drought?
Not enough protection!
What if there were a second drought? We only invested one bean in drought protection!
This means we have a humanitarian crisis. When there is a food shortage, water shortage, the economy is in trouble. It’s a bad outcome when we have a humanitarian crisis, represented by getting one of these little red stones.
Moreover, our investments in development have to be redirected to managing the crisis, so we earn NO prosperity points.
This is the game. How much to invest each 10 years in productive development, drought protection, and flood protection – to earn Prosperity Points!
…triggers humanitarian crisis
…NO prosperity points! 13

14. 2. INVESTMENT DECISIONS FOR THE DECADE
Village A
Village B
How about a Pop Quiz?
Who can tell me how many years out of 10 is community A protected against drought? (ask until someone gives correct answer: 2)
What is the maximum number of Prosperity Points this community can gain for the decade? (ask until correct answer) Right, 6: because 4 out of the budget of 10 are invested in protection.
Who can tell me for community B…? (get quick answers: )
OK: now you’re all experts! Is everybody ready to play?
Take a moment to think and make your own community investments for the decade – remember your decisions are individual but you can confer with your region on a strategy to manage your risk and try to win the game!
You have 3 minutes to discuss and decide. 14

15. Roll 10 Years of rainfall:
3. OBSERVATIONS
Roll 10 Years of rainfall:

16. 4. CONSEQUENCES CRISIS! 6 Prosperity Points 0 Prosperity Points!
Village A
Village B
6 Prosperity Points
0 Prosperity Points!
Now it’s the end of the decade, and we must record the consequences of our decisions on our Community Plans:
First let’s see how it works with these example communities: they have had 2 droughts and Community A is OK: they used their drought protection investment. Now let’s see what happens to Community B – (click through and explain animated steps in slide) they’re ok with 1 drought, because there is a bean to use, but look what happens when the 2nd drought comes!
The rains are coming: when I finish the countdown deciding Time is UP! STOP! Your investments have been made – no more moving beans allowed!
Now we will roll the die 10 times to find out the rainfall in each of the 10 years.
Go ahead: roll your dice! Did anyone get a 6? Please raise your hands if you roll a 6 in your region.
Oof! What does that mean? YES – extreme floods!
Those of you have invested in flood protection, you’re OK, you have prepared well: you can lower your hands and use your protection bean – move it to the box for Used Beans. Everyone else, keep your hands up!
OK, did anyone roll a 1? Please raise your hands if you rolled a 1 in your region.
Those of you have invested in drought protection, you’re OK, you prepared well: you may lower your hands & use your protection bean – move it to the box for Used Beans. Everyone else, keep your hands up!
IF you have not invested in protection… those of you with your hands up have a problem: you have a humanitarian crisis on your hands!
My co-facilitators will come and give you 1 red stone, which you will note down on your Community Plan, and keep the stone in the Crisis box on your sheet until the end of the game.
OK: let’s roll 9 more times and see what happens!
Every time a flood or drought is rolled, if you have a bean invested in protection, you must use it.
Once you use up all your protection investment…your community is not protected, so if disaster strikes, you’ll get a red stone!
Please note on the Decade 1 row of your sheet the number of points you gained – or– the number of crises you suffered during these 10 years!
Are you happy with the outcomes of your decisions?
Reflect for a moment, because we’re about to start to plan for the 2nd decade!
Beans
Used
CRISIS!
Beans
Used 16

17. Let’s Play!

18. Extreme Events are increasing!
Have you heard?
Extreme Events are increasing!
Do you remember that our ‘scientific info’ is based on the past - on historical probabilities?
What have you noticed here in this country during the last decade? Have floods and droughts become more or less frequent? More or less intense? Are the wet and dry seasons changing?
We will now replace your dice with a <special> die.
This gives you new scientific information that represents a bit better the reality of the intensification of the hydrological cycle which is a key characteristic of global climate change, producing more volatility in precipitation.
So for the next decade, the 7 and 8 are extreme floods…the 1 & 2 are extreme drought.
NOTE: this can be adjusted to better reflect conditions on the ground in the country or region where the game is being used – you need to consult a climate expert, preferably someone with the Climate Ctr, to do this. For example if flood is the bigger problem, make 6,7,8 flood, keep 2,3,4,5 normal rains and 1 drought)
Now choose your investments for the 2nd decade – you have 2 minutes to confer & decide!
Here come the rains! STOP! Let’s see how your investment decisions do this decade: we will roll the new die 10 times, and record your results just as before!
Facilitators, are you ready with your red stones in case of humanitarian crisis?
Let’s roll!
= Drought 1 2
= Extreme Flood 7 8

19. The Climate is Changing…

20. NEW MODEL for climate change...
The cone can land 3 ways:
Start of Decade 4
Estimate probabilities in a line
Normal

21. IPCC Latest Report

22. ? A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable Info
Audience: Passive Role ?

23. A Model of the Gameplay Experience
Decisions
Info
Consequences

24. WHY GAMES for Deep Uncertainty:
HUH?
AHA!

25. Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’

26. with IPCC Lead Authors

28. T H A N K Y O U ! ! !