International Politics Power & Democracy Questions Power Questions –What Is Power? What Is Direct Power? What Is Indirect Power? How Do Hard & Soft Power Differ? –How Have Scholars Measured Power? –What Is The Paradox Of Unrealized Power? Democratic Peace Questions –How Has Democracy Been Measured By Scholars? –What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Democracy And Autocracy? –What Is The Democratic Peace? What Is The Rationale Behind The Democratic Peace?

International Politics Power & Measurement Power –Getting An Actor To… Change Behavior Continue Behavior –…In Cases Where That Actor Would Not Perform Such Actions –Power Types Hard: Quantifiable Resources (Army Size, Economic Assets) Soft: Intangible Resources (Culture, Ideology, Ideas) The Tale Of Iraq & Libya: War In Iraq Demonstrates What Happens To Countries (And Dictators) Who Try Support Terrorism And Develop Weapons Of Mass Destruction (WMDs) Libyan Dictator Moammar Gaddafi Abandons His Country’s WMD Ambitions & Overt Support For Terrorism This Tale Demonstrates US Direct Power Over Iraq and Indirect Power Over Libya

International Politics Power & Measurement Theory: Hegemonic Stability: “The Dominant Power Sets The Rules” –Independent Variable (X): Amount Of Power A Country Has –Dependent Variable (Y): Ability To Tell Other Countries What To Do –Relationship: Positive –Rationale: Strong Countries Wield Direct & Indirect Power Over Other Countries Research Design: How Do We Measure Power? Definition: University of Michigan Measure (Correlates of War: C.O.W.) –Military Personnel Expenditures –Economic Energy Consumption Industrial Production –Demographic Total Population Urbanized Population Power Comparison –Tactical Preponderance (3:1)

International Politics Power & Measurement “Hegemonic Stability” Theory –Myth: “American Century” ( ) –Was The 20 th Century “America’s Century?” –If So, Is The Correlates Of War Measure Inadequate Does It Include Too Little? Does It Include Too Much? –If Not, How Might The USSR (Soviet Union) Have Dictated Terms In The World? Hegemonic Stability Theory Results Top Powers Strongest CountryTime Frame USA USSR s USA USSR USA Does The Concept Of Tactical Preponderance Play A Role In This Mystery?

International Politics Power & Measurement Paradox of Unrealized Power –Larger Powers Usually Win –What Explains Upset Victories? Weaker Side Got Help From Powerful Friends Loss Of Strength Gradient Impact Of Resolve Difficulty Of Multitasking Vietnam Afghanistan Vietnam Afghanistan UK USSR Hungary France USA Japan USA March Madness: War Tournament Film Clip: James Bond Why Does General Orlov Plan To Attack? Why Does General Gogol Disagree? What Power Factor Was Ignored By The Plan? Does The COW Power Measure Include This Factor? Should It Be Included? Bond Nemesis: General Orlov

International Politics Democratic Peace Importance Of Regime Type –Types Of Government Constitutional Democracy: “People Govern” Autocracy –Authoritarian: Personal Leader Or Privileged Group Dominates Political Process –Totalitarian: Government Dominates Entire Society (Dominate All Domestic Political Groups (Unions, Students, Youth, Elderly) Anocracy: Characteristics of Democracy & Autocracy –Freedom For The Few (South Africa) –Democracy On Paper, Not In Practice (Mexico) Question: What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Democracy? What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Autocracy?

International Politics Democratic Peace Importance Of Regime Type –Measures of Democracy Polity Data: Dispersion Of Power (Based On Constitution) –Executive Selection, Separation of Powers, Local Autonomy Freedom House: Govt. Respects –Civil Liberties –Political Rights Tatu Vanhanen: Polyarchy –Election Participation –Election Competitiveness (Opposition Votes) –Increasing Spread Of Democracy In The World Latin America & East Europe Will The Middle East Join In?

International Politics Democratic Peace Democratic Peace –“No Two Democracies Have Ever Gone To War With Each Other” –Democracies Less Likely To Fight Each Other In Interventions (Conflicts Short Of War) –Why Are Democratic Relations Peaceful? D = DemocracyA = Autocracy John A. Tures “Defending Freedom, Submission to Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2002 People Bear War Costs (Casualties, Higher Taxes) Leaders Do Not Bear War Costs People Are Less Likely To “Vote” For Conflict –Film Clip: “James Bond: Never Say Never Again” How Is The Game Related To The Democratic Peace? Measure of Democracy = Electoral Competition (Strength of Opposition Vote) & Electoral Participation (% Voting) I used a different measure of democracy than the “Analytical Thinking” slides from the first day of class!