Planning the Networked Grid Transmission Planning J.E.(Jeff) Billinton Manager, Regional Transmission - North Building the Networked Electricity Grid – Post Conference Workshop March 17, 2016 California ISO Public

California ISO by the numbers The California ISO manages the flow of electricity for about 80 percent of California and a small portion of Nevada, which encompasses all of the investor-owned utility territories and some municipal utility service areas.  65,000 MW of power plant capacity ( net dependable capacity )  50,270 MW record peak demand (July 24, 2006)  27,000 market transactions per day  26,000 circuit-miles of transmission lines  30 million people served Page 2

The ISO’s annual transmission planning process (TPP) is coordinated with key state processes. Create demand forecast & assess resource needs CEC & CPUC With input from ISO, IOUs & other stakeholders Creates transmission plan ISO With input from CEC, CPUC, IOUs & other stakeholders Creates procurement plan CPUC feed into With input from CEC, ISO, IOUs & other stakeholders 4 IOUs Final plan authorizes procurement Results of feed into next biennial cycle feed into

Transmission Planning Process March 2017 April 2016 January 2016 State and federal policy CEC - Demand forecasts CPUC - Resource forecasts and common assumptions with procurement processes Other issues or concerns Phase 1 – Develop detailed study plan Phase 2 - Sequential technical studies Reliability analysis Renewable (policy- driven) analysis Economic analysis Publish comprehensive transmission plan with recommended projects ISO Board for approval of transmission plan Phase 3 Procurement

Reliability Standards NERC –Mandatory reliability standards WECC ISO Planning Standards – Page 5

Transmission Planning Assumptions –Demand Forecast –Generation existing and forecast –Transmission Topology –Seasonal –Critical system conditions Peak, partial peak, off-peak, light load –Resource dispatch Page 6

Load Forecast Assumptions Energy and Demand Forecast California Energy Demand Updated Final Forecast adopted by California Energy Commission (CEC) on January 27, 2016 will be used : Using the Mid Case LSE and Balancing Authority Forecast spreadsheet of January 27, 2016 –Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency (AAEE) Consistent with CEC 2015 IEPR Mid AAEE will be used for system-wide studies Low-Mid AAEE will be used for local studies –CEC forecast information is available on the CEC website at: ecast Page 7

Statewide PV Peak Impacts California Energy Demand Forecast 2015 Revised Mid Case corresponds to around 12,000 MW capacity in 2026 in mid case Page 8 Source: California Energy Commission 03/TN207043_ T080246_California_Energy_Demand_ _Revised_Electricity_Forecast.pptxhttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/15-IEPR- 03/TN207043_ T080246_California_Energy_Demand_ _Revised_Electricity_Forecast.pptx

Load Forecast Assumptions Self-Generation PV component of the self-generation in the CEC demand forecast will be modeled as discrete element in the TPP base cases. –Amount of the self-generation PV to be modeled will be based on 2015 IEPR data. –Location to model self-generation PV will be identified based on location of existing behind-the-meter PV and information from PTO on future growth. –Output of the self-generation PV will be selected based on the time of day of the study using the end-use load and PV shapes for the day selected. –Composite load model CMPLDWG will be used to model the self-generation PV. Page 9

Increased DER on Transmission Analysis Reversal of power flow at Transmission and Distribution Interface Voltage profile and control Voltage and transient system analysis Changes in flow patterns on transmission system Changes to critical system conditions typically assessed Need to model DER in base case models –Previously load at T&D Interface was net Page 10

California ISO - Transmission Planning Webpage J.E.(Jeff) Billinton Manager, Regional Transmission - North