Draft EU Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management 8th Meeting of Working Group F on Floods October 2010 Commission ECHO.C4

Structure of draft 1.Introduction 2.Scope and objectives of EU Guidelines 3.Definition of terms 4.Process (actors, data, public) 5.Risk Assessment Methods Conceptual framework (risk, vulnerability, impacts, matrix) Risk identification, Risk analysis, Risk evaluation Uncertainty (sensitivity analysis, precautionary principle) Cross-border dimension 6.Methods of Risk Mapping 7.Annexes with good-practice examples per hazard

Scope and objectives of draft guidelines For national (inter-regional) risk assessments of natural and man-made disasters Focus on process and methods for overview Building on MS and (inter-)regional good practice Use of available EU R&D results Only risk assessment and mapping, not: –risk management –capability planning of best prevention measures –monitoring and review; communication of findings

Definition of terms ISO 31000, 31010, ISO Guide 73 Risk assessment = risk identification + risk analysis + risk evaluation Risk = combining consequences and likelihood of a hazard UN/ISDR Hazard, Vulnerability, Resilience, Exposure Multi-risk assessment Interdependency or only coincidence of hazards Impact = human + economic + environmental + political/social

Impact measurements Human impacts = number dead + severely injured + permanently displaced Economic & environmental impact = costs [€] cure/healthcare, emergency measures, restoration of buildings/ infrastructure/ property, cultural heritage etc., cost of environment restoration and other environmental costs (or environmental damage), disruption of economic activity, insurance payouts, indirect economic/social costs, other direct/indirect costs as relevant Political/social impact = qualitative scale 1-5 E.g.: public order, safety, psychological etc.

Risk Assessment Process Involvement of many actors –Reach a common understanding –Coordination between government departm. –Make assumptions explicit Data needs Public consultation and communication –Wide public consultation to build trust –More awareness, engagement, preparedness

Risk matrix (example) affected people economic & environment political/social

How to capture complex reality ? Risk scenarios –Risk propagation based on assumptions –“reasonable worst case”, threshold, standard –Bayesian methods and decision trees Multi-risk assessment –Interdependent risks –Knock-on effects, cascading effects –Challenge is co-ordination and interfacing of different specialised authorities/ agencies

National Risk Identification Use common approach for risk scenarios: –Hazards with likelihood 1 or more in 100 years –and number of affected people 50 or more –and economic & environmental costs > € 100 million –OR where impacts > 0.6% Gross National Income likelihood of < 1/100 to be considered –OR where likelihood > 1/10 = 3 scenarios per hazard First: risks in the immediate future Outcome = listing + brief description

National risk analysis Natural and man-made hazards Progressively more use of quantitative empirical evidence If carried out for the first time consider at least the 20 most important scenarios Single-risk scenarios and strive to consider also some multi-risk scenarios It is important for overview of risks in EU to disclose methods of calculation

Methods of risk mapping Maps available only at smaller scales Good example: flood mapping (river basins) Stepwise approach 1.Spatial distribution (Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability) 2.Risks

Other chapters Uncertainty –sensitivity analysis –precautionary principle Cross-border dimension of risk assessment Annexes with best-practice examples per type of hazard

Way forward Finalise draft –Include detailed MS experience –Reflect contributions of researchers –Create a good interface with other Commission policies Provide assistance to Member States Update if necessary Make overview in 2012 of EU risks