Thomas Carr Western Interstate Energy Board ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting August 1, 2013 Grid Tracker: A web-based tool to analyze historic transmission flows over paths in the Western Interconnection

Agenda 1.Purpose and background of Grid Tracker 2.About Grid Tracker 1.Database information 2.Types of analysis 3.User assistance mechanisms 3.Interesting Findings 2

Purpose and Background of Grid Tracker 3

Purpose: Develop an internet-based tool that allows users to understand historical use of the transmission grid and identify opportunities to improve grid efficiency. 4

Functions and Uses of Grid Tracker Search and analyze trends in power flow, Available Transfer Capacity (ATC), and schedules for transmission paths in the Western Interconnection, and display results in a graphical format Incorporate data on hydro flow and renewable energy zones to analyze correlations between resources and grid utilization Identify where there is under-utilized transmission capacity Inform decisions on locating new generation without new lines Explore whether the current open access transmission system leads to an efficient use of the grid 5

Background on the Project April 4, 2012 – SPSC approved project funding ($50K) at San Diego meeting Dec. 5, 2012 – RFP issued Feb – SPSC’s Evaluation Committee selected Atkins North America, Inc. as contractor to build the tool from pool of 7 bidders Dean Perry hired for technical support to WIEB Feb. to March – 8 meetings with Atkins, WIEB staff, Dean Perry, and WECC staff to build Grid Tracker prototype April 4 – Pre-meeting webinar for Grid Tracker April 10 – Demonstration at SPSC/CREPC meeting in Boise; SPSC approved of $25K for public outreach and education June 14 – Final product delivered; Grid Tracker fully deployed August – September – Public outreach and education 6

About Grid Tracker 7

Database Information Within Grid Tracker WECC Transmission Paths: All available historical Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Path power flow, Operating Transfer Capacity (OTC), schedule and ATC data from Intend to update over time with new data years for WECC Path power flow and OTC data Hydro Power: Historical Columbia River hydro discharge data at The Dalles, Oregon Representative of hydro generation potential in the Northwest 8 Renewable Energy: Power generation data from a variety of proxy renewable energy plants (wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal) Based on WECC’s Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) 2022 Common Case Proxy plants are located within the Western Governors’ Association and U.S. DOE’s Western Renewable Energy Zone Initiative Hubs

9 Interesting Findings shows recent analyses, give interpretations of results, and show you how to build the analysis. Basic Analysis allows you to select from a suite of standard analyses. Web-based You can open and run the Grid Tracker in all of the major web browsers. Advanced Analysis Allows you to create complex custom analyses. Map-based: The map presents the various power datasets and allows you to select which data you’d like to analyze

10 1.Click on any Path, Hydro discharge point, or WREZ Hub on the map. 2.Select a time series from the pop-up. 3.Click chart to view the data. 4.Download the data for analysis in excel. Point and Click Data Access

The Data Analysis Tree Allows for building custom analyses in the Advanced Analysis Tab. Incorporates data from the various databases as input nodes in a link-node network. Adds nodes from the tool box to conduct analysis on the data 11

Types of Analysis Basic Time Series Analysis Statistics (Mean, Min, Max, 90 th /95 th /99 th Percentile, St. Dev) Hourly Statistics – statistic for each hour of the day Aggregating Time Series (hourly, daily, seasonal, hydro year) Grid Capacity Analysis Calculation of maximum FIRM and NonFIRM ATC Calculation of Unused/Unscheduled Capacity Combining multiple Paths in series or in parallel Statistical Analysis Probability curves Correlation Simulation Simulates proxy plant power generation with adequate transmission capacity Allows the user to adjust the output of the proxy power plant 12

User assistance mechanisms Pop-ups to explain terms and particular functions Warnings if an analysis cannot be done because there are gaps in the data Step-by-step instructions on how the interesting findings case study results were created Allows the user to upload additional data for analysis 13

Interesting Findings 14

Northwest hydro in comparison to Montana power flow Using multiple years of data, there is a Pearson correlation coefficient between the two daily time series, indicating a strong inverse correlation. 15 Columbia River discharge vs. Path 8 (Montana to Northwest) power flow

16 Moving power from Arizona to California The clear bottleneck in transmitting power to California is Path 49 (east of the Colorado River), which has significantly less unused transmission capacity than Path 46 (west of the Colorado River). Unused transmission capacity is either the calculated unused/unscheduled capacity or the calculated maximum of FIRM and NonFIRM ATC.

17 Path 49 (east of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity Path 46 (west of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity Moving power from Arizona to California

18 Moving power from Arizona to California 95% of the time, the level of unused transmission capacity stays fairly constant at approximately megawatts (MW) the entire day. The only exception is the last hour in the day, 11 pm – midnight, when the value drops to approximately 120 MW.

19 Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95 th percentile Moving power from Arizona to California

Sizing a solar energy project 83% of the time in the analysis year (2008), there is adequate transmission capacity for 360 MW from a415 MW proxy plant in Western Arizona to serve the California market via Paths 46 and 49 ; the remaining 17% of the time, there may or may not be adequate transmission capacity. 20

21 83% of the time in the analysis year, there is adequate transmission capacity for 360 MW from the proxy plant. Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity probability curve AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant power generation probability curve Sizing a solar energy project

The statistics for the proxy plant generation in comparison to the statistics for the Path 46/49 unused transmission capacity indicate transmission capacity sufficiency. 22

23 Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95 th percentile AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, minimum hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, average hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, maximum hourly AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, 95 th percentile Sizing a solar energy project

The power generation and transmission simulator, which simulates the correlation between power generation and transmission on an hourly basis, shows that at the proxy plant’s current size (415 MW), there is adequate transmission capacity for 97% of the plant’s generation in the analysis year. If the plant’s capacity is increased to 6,500 MW, there is adequate transmission capacity for 15% of the plant’s generation in the analysis year. 24

25 As the plant capacity increases, adequate transmission capacity decreases. If the plant’s capacity is increased to 6,500 MW, there is adequate transmission capacity for 15% of the plant’s generation in the analysis year. At the proxy plant’s current size (415 MW), there is adequate transmission capacity for 97% of the plant’s generation in the analysis year. % Plant generation transmitted vs. plant capacity Sizing a solar energy project

Contact Information Grid Tracker website: Please send questions/comments to: Tom Carr, WIEB (303) x3 Suzanne Leta Liou, Atkins (503)