Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas: Implications for Colleges and Universities Texas Association of State Senior College and University Business Officers February 9, 2015 Austin, Texas

Y ear* Population Numeric Change Annual Percent Change 19507,711, ,579,6771,868, ,196,7301,617, ,229,1913,032, ,986,5102,757, ,851,8203,865, ,145,5614,293, ,060, , ,448,193387, ,956,958451, * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas,

Texas Population Growth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Net Migration 12.1% – 50% 50.1% – 60% 60.1% – 70% 70.1% – 99% Percent of Population Change from Net Migration Dallas Houston Austin San Antonio Ft. Worth Midland

One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 U.S. Rank GeographyPopulation EstimateChange, 2012 to NumberPercent 5 Kendall County, Texas35,96837,7661, Fort Bend County, Texas625,853652,36526, Hays County, Texas169,013176,0267, Andrews County, Texas16,13716, Dimmit County, Texas10,48110, Comal County, Texas114,590118,4803, Ector County, Texas144,609149,3784, Ward County, Texas10,88711, Williamson County, Texas456,359471,01414, Montgomery County, Texas484,790499,13714, Denton County, Texas708,050728,79920, Gaines County, Texas18,39318, Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction

One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, U.S. Rank GeographyPopulation EstimateChange, 2012 to NumberPercent 1Harris County, Texas4,253,9634,336,853 82, Bexar County, Texas1,785,7871,817,610 31, Tarrant County, Texas1,881,4451,911,541 30, Fort Bend County, Texas625,853652,365 26, Dallas County, Texas2,453,9072,480,331 26, Travis County, Texas1,096,2461,120,954 24, Denton County, Texas708,050728,799 20, Collin County, Texas834,674854,778 20, Williamson County, Texas456,359471,014 14, Montgomery County, Texas484,790499,13714,3473.0

County Population Change, Texas, Total Population by County

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 99 counties lost population over the three year period

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage.

Persons per Sq. Mile in the Austin-San Antonio Corridor 0 – – – – 4,000 4,001 – 56, Population Density by Census Tract,

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth,

29% 11% 7% 4% Texas California New York North Carolina Washington 4% Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State All Others

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and 2010 Census count

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

17 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

18 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

19 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Projected Population Growth in Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Texas Population Change by Age Group, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections, Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample,

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 24 These should be going DOWNThese should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 25 These should be going DOWNThese should be going UP Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Demographics and Destiny 26

Contact Office: (512) or (210) Internet: Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H. 27