ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Extreme Climatic and atmospheric changes - prediction for the Baltic Sea region future University of Silesia, Faculty of Earth Sciences Department of Climatology Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, Ewa Łupikasza

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 What do climate change and climatic extremes mean? Observed climate change? Projection of future Climate Change Europe and The Baltic Sea area? Content Reasons of climate change in Europe and the Baltic Sea region?

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 What does climate extreme mean? Extremes generally refer to rare events within the statistical reference distribution of particular weather elements at a particular place (Houghton et al., 2001) and thus to the tails of the probability density function (PDF) Another definition of extremes is used in impact analysis. Here, extremes usually refer to the hazardous weather conditions that result in strong adverse effects on ecosystems or sectors of society.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 A statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period of time, typically decades or longer (Houghton et al., 2001). What does climate change mean? Furthermore, climate change is characterized also by changes in extremes. Schematic showing the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Observed climate change - Global According to the instrumental record, the global mean temperature increase over the period 1861–2000 was 0.61°C, with 90% confidence interval 0.45–0.77°C (Houghton et al., 2001). Smoothed annual anomalies of combined land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (°C), 1861 to 2000, relative to 1961 to 1990, Globe.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Observed climate change - Global the past 100 years as a whole Annual surface temperature trends For the period since 1976, the rate of change is roughly 3 times that for

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Observed climate change - Global Seasonal surface temperature trends for the period 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade), WINTER (DJF)SPRING (MAM) SUMMER (JJA)AUTUMN (SON)

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Is the recent warming unusual? Millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red) from AD 1000 to 1999, adapted from Mann et al. (1999). Smoother version of NH series (black), linear trend from AD 1000 to 1850 (purple-dashed) and two standard error limits (grey shaded) are shown.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Overall, global land precipitation has increased by about 2% since the beginning of the 20th century (Jones and Hulme, 1996; Hulme et al., 1998) The increase is statistically significant but has been neither spatially nor temporally uniform (Karl and Knight, 1998; Doherty et al., 1999). Observed climate change - Global

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Overall, global land precipitation has increased by about 2% since the beginning of the 20th century (Jones and Hulme, 1996; Hulme et al., 1998) The increase is statistically significant but has been neither spatially nor temporally uniform (Karl and Knight, 1998; Doherty et al., 1999). Observed climate change - Global Annual precipitation trends

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February Mean temperature - winterCold-spell days, winter Warm-spell days, winter The pronounced warming between 1976 and 1999 is primarily associated with an increase in warm extremes rather than with a decrease in cold extremes.1999 ). Observed climate change - Europe

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 Precipitation - winterNo. of wet days, winter Mean prec. amount per wet days, winter Observed climate change - Europe