By London Borough of Havering Public Health Service Version 1.2 (March 2016) This is Havering 2016 A Demographic and Socio-economic profile A Demographic and Socio-economic profile Some Key Facts and Figures

Background This is Havering… o …is a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) product that provides a snapshot of the demographic and socio-economic profile of Havering o …is intended to be the “one version of the truth” in relation to the demographic and socio-economic profile of Havering o …is the first of products agreed (for 2015/16 work programme) by the JSNA steering group Produced by Public Health Intelligence

JSNA 2015/16 Programme o This is Havering: a demographic and socio-economic profile o Overview of Health and Social Care Needs o Obesity (including a Strategy) o Interactive Ward Health Profiles Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Approach o A snapshot – concise and limited document size o Readable and less technical o Good visualisation of data, where appropriate o Updatable with new data, with less difficulty (quarterly updates currently agreed) 1 o Useful to commissioners and other stakeholders See the main document (“This is Havering: a demographic and socioeconomic profile”) at Note: This PowerPoint version does not contain all the information in the main document Produced by Public Health Intelligence 1 The next update is due in June 2016

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE Contents - Geographical location - Havering as a place - Deprivation - Size and structure - Population change - Ward level change - Births and migration - Projected change - Life expectancy - Ethnicity - Disabilities - Income - Child poverty - Employment and unemployment - Household size - Mosaic groups - Housing tenure - Housing conditions - Homelessness - Short term migrants - Traveller population - Social isolation Produced by Public Health Intelligence

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE - Household size - Mosaic groups - Housing tenure - Housing conditions - Homelessness - Short term migrants - Traveller population - Social isolation - Income - Child poverty - Employment and unemployment Produced by Public Health Intelligence - Geographical location - Havering as a place - Deprivation - Size and structure - Population change - Ward level change - Births and migration - Projected change - Life expectancy - Ethnicity - Disabilities

Geographic – Summary o The London Borough of Havering is the 3 rd largest borough in London (43 miles 2 ) and has 18 electoral wards. o It is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the area dedicated to open green space, particularly to the east of the borough. o Principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment. o The southern part of Havering is within the London Riverside section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area and will be an area of increasing development and population change. o A relatively affluent borough but pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Geographic – Location Havering is located on the northeast boundary of Greater London 18 Electoral Wards 3 rd largest borough in Greater London (43 miles 2 ) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Geographic - Green Spaces Havering is mainly characterised by suburban development, with almost half of the borough dedicated to open green space. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Local Land and Property Gazetteer Data Source: National Land and Property Gazetteer

Dataset: Mid-year Population Estimates 2014 and UK Standard Area of Measurements Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) The principal town (Romford) is densely populated and is an area of major metropolitan retail and night time entertainment. The southern part of Havering is a part of a section of the Thames Gateway redevelopment area. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Geographic – Population Density

Deprivation quintile score of Havering LSOAs* relative to Havering Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Indices of Multiple Deprivation, 2015 Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Geography – Deprivation Deprivation quintile score of Havering LSOAs* relative to England *LSOA – Lower Super Output Area There are pockets of deprivation to the north (Gooshays and Heaton wards) and south (South Hornchurch) of the borough. DeprivedMost DeprivedMore DeprivedLess DeprivedLeast Deprived

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE - Household size - Mosaic groups - Housing tenure - Housing conditions - Homelessness - Short term migrants - Traveller population - Social isolation - Income - Child poverty - Employment and unemployment Produced by Public Health Intelligence - Geographical location - Havering as a place - Deprivation - Size and structure - Population change - Ward level change - Births and migration - Projected change - Life expectancy - Ethnicity - Disabilities

Population – Summary (I) o The estimated population of Havering is 245,974 o It has the oldest population in London (median age is approximately 40 years) o Havering experienced a net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 to 2002 but the population has increased year on year from 2002, with a 9.3% increase from 2002 to 2014 o There is increase in general fertility rate: 54 births (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) in 2003 to 66 in 2014 – an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged o Havering experienced largest net inflow of children across all London boroughs (4,606 children) in a 6-year period ( ) o Largest increases in population will occur in children (0-17 years) and older people age groups (65 years and above) up to 2030 Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population – Summary (II) o Life expectancy at birth is 80.2 years for males and 83.9 years for females. o Life expectancy at 65 years is 19.0 years for males and 21.7 years for females o On 2011 census day, 83% of residents were recorded as White British - higher than both London and England o About 90% of the borough population were born in the United Kingdom o An increase in the Black African population is projected from 3.8% in 2015 to 5.2% of the Havering population in 2030 o 18% of working age people in Havering disclosed that they have a disability or long term illness Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population – Age Structure Population of Havering is 245,974 Havering has the oldest population in London with a median age of 40 years old Age structure is similar to England but older than London. Dataset: Mid-year Population Estimates 2014 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population - Trend Net population loss of 6.3% from 1983 (240,200) to 2002 (225,100) but the population of Havering has increased year on year from 2002, with a 9.3% increase from 2002 to 2014 Dataset: Mid-year population estimates (nearest hundreds) Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population - Change (Components) Population inflow Live Births Immigration Population outflow Deaths Emigration Population Dataset: Mid-year population estimates 2014 Analysis Tool Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population – Changes (2014) Children aged 0-4 years are the largest contributors to population change, largely due to births. Dataset: Mid-year population estimates 2014 Analysis Tool Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence A net decrease in adults aged 50+ largely due to deaths.

Population – Change (Births) Increase in general fertility rate (per 1,000 women aged 15-44) from 54 births in 2003 to 66 in an additional 12 births per 1,000 women aged Dataset: Live Births, General Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates, Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Population – Change (Inflow) Between 2009 and 2014, 4,606 children settled in Havering from another London borough - the largest net inflow of children across all London boroughs during the six year period Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Internal Migration Flows, Data Source: Greater London Authority (GLA)

The life expectancy at birth for people living in Havering is 80.2 years for males and 83.9 years for females Life expectancy in Havering has been mostly higher than the England average and has been on the increase over the last decade Dataset: Life expectancy at birth, to Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Life Expectancy at Birth

Gap in life expectancy at birth between most and least deprived deciles within Havering is 7.9 years for males and 5.5 years for females Dataset: Public Health Outcomes Framework (PHOF - 0.1ii. Life expectancy at birth) Data Source: Public Health England (PHE) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Life Expectancy at Birth (Inequalities)

The life expectancy at 65 years for people living in Havering is 19.0 years for males and 21.7 years for females Mostly higher than the England average for females in last decade. And has been on the increase over the last decade (for both males and females). Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Life expectancy at 65, to Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Population – Life Expectancy at 65

The population is projected to increase from 247,692 (in 2015) by 6%, 11% and 13% to 261,390 (in 2020), 275,572 (in 2025) and 279,912 (in 2030) respectively. Dataset: 2014 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Projections Data Source: Greater London Authority (GLA) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Projections The largest increases will occur in children (0- 17 years) and older people (65 years and above) up to 2030.

The populations in Romford Town, South Hornchurch and Brooklands wards are expected to increase the most over the next fifteen years. Dataset: 2014 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Projections Data Source: Greater London Authority (GLA) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Ward Projections

Havering is one of the most ethnically homogenous places in London, with 83% of its residents recorded as White British higher than both London and England Dataset: Census, 2011 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Ethnicity

Population – Ethnicity by Ward Brooklands, Emerson Park, Romford Town and South Hornchurch are the wards with the highest proportion of non-white categories. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Census, 2011 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Dataset: 2014 Round Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)-Based Ethnic Group Projections; Data Source: Greater London Authority (GLA) The white population (including the minority white population) is projected to decrease from 85% (in 2015) to 79% (in 2030) of the population Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Ethnicity Projections It is projected that the Black African population will increase from 3.8% in 2015 to 5.2% of the Havering population in 2030.

Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Census, 2011 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Population – Country of Birth Country of birth of non-UK born residents Count (rate per 10,000 of Havering population) 90% of Havering residents were born in the UK

Havering is estimated to have one of the highest rates of serious physical disabilities among London boroughs. Dataset: Health Survey for England, 2001 Data Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Population – Disability

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE - Household size - Mosaic groups - Housing tenure - Housing conditions - Homelessness - Short term migrants - Traveller population - Social isolation - Income - Child poverty - Employment and unemployment - Geographical location - Havering as a place - Deprivation - Size and structure - Population change - Ward level change - Births and migration - Projected change - Life expectancy - Ethnicity - Disabilities

Household – Summary (I) o There are 97,200 households in Havering o Households are mainly composed of pensioners and married couples with dependent children o All adults in 52% of households (40,722) are working and no adults are working in 16% of households (12,256) o In 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult households with children under 16 in Havering. This is an increase from 2001 when there were 4,005 lone parent households. o 70% of the population in Havering are home owners – one of the highest proportions across London boroughs o Housing is mainly Victorian and Edwardian. Houses are generally large with an average of 2.8 bedrooms per household (higher than both London and England) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Household – Summary (II) o Rate of statutory homeless households is 1.9 per 1,000 households (lower than both London and England). o Rate of households in temporary accommodation is 6.5 per 1,000 households (lower than London but higher than England). o The borough has a rate of short-term international migrants of 77 per 100,000 population, the lowest of all London local authorities. o 83% of the traveller caravans in Havering were on unauthorised sites, as at July o 32% (13,449) of the population aged 65 years and above are living in one-person households. Almost half (48%) of all one person households in Havering are occupied by persons aged 65 years and over, which is the highest proportion in London Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Household – Size and Composition In 2011, there were 7,224 one-adult households with children under 16 – an increase from 4,005 a decade earlier. There has also been an increase in the number of one-adult households with no children. Dataset: For 1981,1991,and Historic Census Tables; For Census 2011 Table KS105EW Data Source: Greater London Authority and adapted from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Household – Mosaic Groups The top five Mosaic groups account for 65% of the households in Havering Dataset: Mosaic Public Sector, 2014 Data Source: Experian Produced by Public Health Intelligence

Household – Top 5 Mosaic Groups Group Characteristics % of Havering households Senior security Elderly Singles and Couples Homeowners Comfortable homes Additional pensions above state Don’t like new technology Low mileage drivers 16.2% Suburban Stability Older Families Some adult children at home Suburban mid-range homes 3 bedrooms Have lived at same address for years Research on Internet 15.8% Aspiring Homemakers Younger households Full-time employment Private Suburbs Affordable Housing costs Starter Salaries Buy and Sell on eBay 13.7% Domestic Success Families with children Upmarket Suburban homes Owned with a mortgage 3 or 4 bedrooms High internet use Own new technology 11.2% Prestige Positions High value detached homes Married Couples Managerial and senior positions Supporting students and older children High assets and investments Online shopping and banking 8.5% Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Mosaic Public Sector, 2014 Data Source: Experian

Household – Tenure 70% of the population in Havering are home owners. This is one of the highest proportions across London boroughs Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Integrated Household Survey, 2013 Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Household – Homelessness Rate of statutory homeless households in Havering is 1.9 per 1,000 – lower than London & England Dataset: Public Health Outcomes Framework Data Source: Public Health England Produced by Public Health Intelligence Also lower than deprivation decile and ranks near the middle across other local authorities in same deprivation decile

Household – Short-term Migration Rate of short-term international migrants is 77 per 100,000 population (lowest in London and significantly lower than England) Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Short-term International Migration Annual Report – Year ending mid-2013 estimates Data Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS)

GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE POPULATION PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC PROFILE - Household size - Mosaic groups - Housing tenure - Housing conditions - Homelessness - Short term migrants - Traveller population - Social isolation - Income - Child poverty - Employment and unemployment - Geographical location - Havering as a place - Deprivation - Size and structure - Population change - Ward level change - Births and migration - Projected change - Life expectancy - Ethnicity - Disabilities

Economic – Summary o The average gross income per household in Havering (£44,430, as measured in 2012/13) is low in comparison to the London average (£51,770) and slightly higher than the England average of £39,557 o Majority of children in Havering are not poor, but around 8,800 live in income-deprived households. Gooshays and Heaton wards have the highest proportion of children living in poverty o About 77.5% of working age residents in Havering were in employment between October 2014-September Overall employment rate in Havering is higher than London (72.3%) and England (73.6%). o The proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out- of-work benefits* (7.5%) is significantly lower than England (8.9%) Produced by Public Health Intelligence *Main out-of-work benefits includes the groups: job seekers, ESA and incapacity benefits, lone parents and others on income related benefits.

Economic - Income The average gross household income per household in Havering is £44,430 in 2012/13. It is lower than the London average (£51,770) and slightly higher than England (£39,557). Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Public Health Outcomes Framework Data Source: Public Health England

Economic - Child Poverty The majority of children in Havering are not poor, but around 8,800 live in income-deprived households. Gooshays and Heaton wards have the highest proportion of children living in poverty. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Index of Deprivation Affecting Children Index, 2015 Data Source: Department for Communities and Local Government Most Deprived More Deprived Deprived Less Deprived Least Deprived Figure 37: Income deprivation affecting Children, quintiles within Havering LSOA, 2015

Economic Profile – Employment 77.5% of working age residents in Havering were in employment (October September 2015 Annual household survey), which is higher than London and England. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Annual Population Survey, October 2014 – September 2015 Data Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS

Economic Profile – Unemployment The proportion of working age residents in Havering claiming out-of-work benefits ( 7.5% ) is significantly lower than England. Produced by Public Health Intelligence Dataset: Annual Population Survey, August 2015 Data Source: Office for National Statistics via NOMIS

Definitions 1 Child Poverty measures the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of- work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60 per cent median income. Deprivation Decile Population ranked in order of deprivation and split into 10 groups (from most to least deprived) Quintile Population ranked in order of deprivation and split into 5 groups (from most to least deprived) General Fertility Rate defined as the number of live births in a geographic area in a year per 1000 women of childbearing age (defined as age 15 to 44 years) Usual Resident Population anyone who is resident and had stayed or intends to stay for a period of 12 months or more, OR has a permanent address and is outside the UK and intends to be outside the UK for less than 12 months.

Definitions 2 Life Expectancy a frequently used indicator of the overall health of a population: a longer life expectancy is generally a reflection of better health. Reducing the differences in life expectancy is a key part of reducing health inequalities. Life expectancy at birth for an area is an estimate of how long, on average, babies born today may live if she or he experienced that area’s age-specific mortality rates for that time period throughout her or his life. Migration Internal calculated as the difference in total between those moving into and out of the borough from other local authorities in the United Kingdom International Long-term international migrants: those coming to the United Kingdom (UK) for more than a year Short-term international migrants: those coming to the United Kingdom (UK) for less than a year Lower layer Super Output Areas are a geographic hierarchy used by Office for National Statistics (ONS) to improve the reporting of small area statistics. They are built from groups of contiguous Output Areas and have been automatically generated to be as consistent in population size as possible, and typically contain from four to six Output Areas. The minimum population is 1000 and the mean is 1500

Definitions 3 Homelessness (Statutory) 2 For a household to be classified as statutorily homeless, the following must be satisfied: They are homeless, defined as those without any right to access secure accommodation for that night i.e. they are not legal tenants of any property, nor own any property. Or they can also be classed as "potentially homeless" if they are about to lose their dwelling, be evicted, within 28 days. They must have a local connection (lived or worked in the area, family in the area, have a care responsibility or need care from relatives in the area). They are in priority need i.e. have dependent children in them (aged under 16 years) or are an older person household, or vulnerable. The homeless household must not be intentionally homeless i.e. losing their previous accommodation through their own action such as not paying rent or a mortgage. Households in temporary accommodation These data demonstrate the number of homeless households in temporary accommodation awaiting a settled home. 2 (Definition from Department of Communities and Local Government)