Forecasting the labor market needs of workforce skills Budapest 26 February 2014

National employment policy Priorities: In 2014 one of the main priorities of the employment policy is to activate and improve the employability of the unemployed, especially those from disadvantaged groups by involving them in training for the acquisition of demand on the labour market knowledge, skills and competencies.  Improving the business environment, support for maintaining employment;  Development of inter-institutional relations and social partnership.

Vocational education and training in Bulgaria Vocational education in Bulgaria has a long history and tradition. Strengths of vocational education:  Existing legal basis;  A network of institutions. The Problem:  “There is no job for the people and there are no proper people for the job.”;  According to employers there is a shortage of skilled workers in the areas of “IT”, “Technology”, “Production and Processing” “Architecture and Construction”. Conclusions: The shortage of workers with the necessary skills along with the aging population is a major obstacle to economic growth and attracting of investments in Bulgaria.

National Strategy for Lifelong Learning Solutions: 1.Preparation of a strategic framework for public policy for education and training. The government adopted a National strategy for lifelong learning for the period 2014 – 2020, aimed at achieving the European goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. Planned activities in vocational education of National strategy for lifelong learning:  Development of career guidance services;  Encouraging education and training in the priority areas of the economy;  Professional apprenticeship, incl. by organizing internships in enterprises during and after completion of training;  Matching vocational education with aquiring of key competencies;

System for prediction of workforce demand Solutions: 2. Develop a system for prediction of workforce demand with certain characteristics This system should provide information about the future needs of labor market knowledge, skills and competencies in order to formulate polices in the field of vocational education and training. This information is especially needed with the launch of the Youth Guarantee in early

Practical approach for forecasting future skills labor market needs Till 2008 following approach was applied : - Annual surveys were conducted to study the needs of employers for workers with certain qualifications – the collection of information was provided by labor brokers in the LLO with visits to employers; - Summarizing and processing of information in the Employment Agency and preparation of a list of professions needed for business; - Discussing the results of the survey of local, regional and national level with the social partners; - Preparation of a proposal to the Minister of Labor and Social Policy for approving list of professions which need training qualification in the relevant year from the State budget.

Practical approach for forecasting future skills labor market needs - LLO draft candidates – unemployed people to be included in training courses in specific field which there is a demand on labour market; - LLO requested a course in Employment Agency; - Selection of the training organization is conducted; - LLO organized and controlled the learning process.

Matching of employers needs with specific qualified workforce - The employer announced the vacancy with training request; - Training organization was selected; - There are target persons for training for the specific job in line with their personal profile and individual characteristics; - A contract is signed between LLO, the unemployed and employer; - Training is conducted; - Employer provides 6 months of employment for the trained person.

Vocational education after 2008 According to the rules of the Employment Agency vocational training is conducted in two areas: 1. With the means from the State budget – LLO guides the unemployed to :  Training in a State enterprise “Bulgarian –German vocational training Centers”;  Training for a particular job;  Training at the Center for Human Resource Development and regional initiatives, pdt of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy;  Training projects of social partners. 2. Training by schemes of HRD OP with means from the ESF – training of unemployed by stated workplaces from employers with subsequent employment and training of employees on professional qualifications and key competences.

2014 Approach  Project BG 051PO “Development of a system for forecasting workforce with certain characteristics” is been released;  The project is implemented by MLSP and funded by “Human Resources Development” OP co-financed by the ESF, EU;  Employment Agency is a partner in the project.

General purpose of the Project Preparing and updating reliable and comprehensive forecasts on the development of the labour market, necessary to conduct effective and targeted policies in the area of education, training, social inclusion and the active policy in the labour market.

Specific purposes of the Project  Assistance for better correspodence between supply and demand of skills in the labour market of Bulgaria;  Reducing the imbalances in the labour market by overcoming the shortage of qualified staff in certain economic activities and professions;  Improving the process of planning in the area of vocational training for a long-term and mid-term period;  Improving the opportunities for vocational orientation and career development.

Main activities under the Project  Construction of “National Unit of Forecasting the Development of the Labour Market in Bulgaria” in Ministry of Labour and Social Policy. It will receive and generalize information about the labour market from different institutions in the country – currently under construction;  Preparation and examination of a model for forecasting the development of the labour market in a mid-term and long-term aspect.  Conduction of training for interpreting the results of the prepared forecasts and formulation of policies based on that – by the end of February.

Main activities under the Project  Making of two researches by the National Employment Agency to identify the short-term needs of the employers for workers with certain characteristics – in 2014 and The research for 2014 will start in March. This will create a capacity for the NEA to implement this activity even after the completion of the project.  Printing the prepared reports based on the results of the polls and the macro-economical forecasts received.

Main activities under the Project  A pilot study made by an external polling agency in order to test and improve the developed and approved methodology;  Implementation of trainings for experts from the NEA – 100 experts from the labour offices around the country were trained to interview the employers;

Main activities in exploring the recruitment needs of the employers  The method of standardized interview will be used in the NEA’s research;  A professional statistician prepares a representative sample of the country;  The NEA will process and generalize the data from the research and will forward them to the National Unit of Forecasting.

Elements of the questionnaire The questionnaire is divided into three sections of questions: Section 1. General information about the enterprise: –Type of enterprise; –Area of economic activity; –Number of employees in the enterprise; –Annual turnover of the enterprise for the last year; –Geographical region of the country, where the enterprise operates.

Elements of the questionnaire Section 2. Employment: –Number of persons placed in employment by level of education; –Number of vacancies by profession, specialty and level of education in the enterprise; –Planning of new jobs by profession, specialty and level of education for the next year. –Preferences to the persons placed in employment (with professional experience in specific occupation, without any experience in order to be trained in the company); –Preferable channels for recruiting employees in the enterprise.

Elements of the questionnaire Section 3. Training and qualifications: –Are there any trainings provided to the employees of the enterprise; –Intentions of providing future trainings; –What vocational knowledge and skills and key competencies should the workers and employees acquire as a result of the training.

Data from the administrative statistics of the NEA In 2013 in trainings for vocational qualification and key competencies were included: -about persons. Of them: -about unemployed persons (a total of under the NAPE and under “HRD” OP); employed persons.

Thank you for your attention! …