Wind Production intermittency Cross border compensation: what to expect in Western Europe? Analysis of Winter 2010/2011 Hubert Flocard and Jean-Pierre Pervès December 11th, 20111www.sauvonsleclimat.org Sources: for France (site ecO2mix)  for Ireland for Spainhttp://  for Germany + Austria  for Denmark  and for Great Britain

Wind energy integration: the challenges Wind energy is intermittent and non dispatchable by nature Predictability of wind plant output remains low for short-term grid operations as well as on a monthly or seasonal basis. But instantaneous generation and consumption of electricity must remain in balance to maintain grid stability Wind electrity raises costs for regulation, incremental operating reserve, storage solutions and systems interconnection Systems with large wind capacity components need much more spinning reserve (plants operating at less than full load). There are substantial challenges to incorporating large amounts of wind power into a grid system: it is essential to evaluate the importance of wind intermittency on the global European grid, using precise and real power distributions December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org2

European Wind Productions (see fig. N°1) Winter 2010/2011: the facts  Cumulated installed power is 65,000 MW (31 st Dec. 2010) (Germany + Austria 28,200, Spain 20,700, France 5,700, Denmark 3,800, Ireland 1,430, UK 5,200 : details fig 7 a, b and c in annex)  These countries represent a good sampling of potential wind random variations over western Europe  Fig. 1 below shows a big variability of the supplied power despite the geographical area covered  Average power: 22.8 % of total power P  Min. power: 2,000 MW Sept 3 rd (3.34% of P)  Max. power : 38,700 MW (64.7% of P)

Fig. 1 - Winter 2010/2011: variations of wind production December 11th, 20114www.sauvonsleclimat.org Wind Production in 7 countries of West Europe from September 2010 to March 2011 Intermittency effects remain big Puissance installée: MW This figure presents the cumulative power generated in these 7 countries. Since Germany and Spain alone represent 75% of total power it does not give a sufficiently clear long term view of European wind production variations Total power: 65,000 MW

What to expect in 2030?  Extrapolation, based on each country’s ambition for wind power, should give a more accurate evaluation of global intermittence (reinforced renewables)  Each national production profile (fig. 1 and fig. 7 a, b, c) is rescaled accordingly to the estimated increase of power (table above) in fig. 2 below MW est. France Germany/Austria Spain Denmark Ireland Great Britain Total December 11th, 20115www.sauvonsleclimat.org

Fig 2: “Winter 2030” – Wind power compensation potential (7 countries : extrapolation from 2010/2011 winter data) December 11th, 20116www.sauvonsleclimat.org Hourly P = GW or 187,500 MW Average supplied Power : 21 % ( 39,4 GW) Min supplied Power : 4.1 % on Sept 3rd (7.7 GW) Max supplied Power : 60.3 % on Nov 11 th (113 GW) MW

Information gained from fig.2 The situation described in fig. 2 can be considered as representative of 2030 reality and used to evaluate wind power availability Intermittency is still great There are 30 time intervals when wind production in Western Europe is under 15% of operating capacity Guarantied power is under 10% of total power Huge grid interconnection between these 7 countries will not solve the problem resulting from insufficient wind production during large climatic intervals Costly over sizing of grid could be required during high wind episodes High wind conditions (Nov. 11) result in brutal changes of power Three periods merit more specific attention: fig. 3 and 4 ( Nov. in France and Europe), fig. 5 Jan. and fig. 6 peak of production December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org7

December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org8 Fig.3 - What happened in France in November 2010: From Nov 15th the country was under an anticyclone with cold and little wind °C + 40% during 10h 16 % 16 % implies that “in 2030”, the French 53GW of installed wind power should supply 8,5 GW when, for such cold weather conditions, the national consumption is 90GW or over. Solar production is likely to be low at that time. 10 %

December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org9 Fig.4 – 2030: what might exist as “compensation “ from other countries during a climatic event similar to Nov./Dec period Low production, therefore no compensation (2030 production extrapolated from Nov./Dec. 2010) During 13 days: average power 32 GW / 187,5 GW -> 17.1 % P During 2 days: average power 18.3 GW / 187,5 GW -> 9.8 % P Needed power (estimation) : 200 to 250 GW 2 days 9.8% 13 days 17.1 % Power GW 10,5 days 15.3 %

Fig.5 - Is fig. 4 configuration exceptional? NO Same configuration in January as in November (2030 extrapolated from 2011 wind data: Jan. 14 to Feb. 3) December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org10 187,500 MW 5 days: 14,6 % 2 days: 11 %

Fig. 6 - High wind conditions: Nov. 10th to 14 th 2030 December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org11 Hours 120 GW Wind power increase should have reached  a maximum of 8 GW / hour at midday  6 GW / hour at 11 pm  an average of 4.5 GW / hour during 10 hours  At peak hour (Nov. 11, 21h) wind power: 113 GW – 60% P Germany 73%, Fr 67%, Spain 47%, Dk 86%, Ireland 65%, UK 30%) Saturation of wind power almost everywhere Estimated total power needed: between 180 and 200 GW Total power 187,5 GW

Conclusions There is a visible geographical compensation effect (slides 1, 5, 6, 7) However, it eliminates neither the randomness of the production nor the amplitude of its variations. Intermittency is still there and is huge. A mammoth high voltage European grid as suggested by European Climate Foundation, needing colossal investments, won’t change it. Some major climate events are observed leading to supplied power which is low for long periods (one to two weeks or more), or alternatively sometimes very high with fast evolutions of power (for a few days). Weak wind production episodes are frequent during very warm and very cold periods (anticyclones), preventing wind power from feeding the grid adequately. The question of the backup power which could compensate intermittency is critical as no other renewable sources can match these situations. Gas and coal power plants will be needed, with low charge factors. What about suggesting hydrogen production by electrolysis? It would need greater power to allow for reasonably long hydrogen production episodes. Denmark’s production curve (slide 7b) shows that northern European offshore production will increase the efficiency (around + 5 to 7 %), but also notably the kinetics of power changes December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org12

December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org13 Annex : Fig. 7 a - Wind production by country

December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org14 Annex : Fig. 7 b - Wind production by country

December 11th, 2011www.sauvonsleclimat.org15 Annex : Fig. 7 c - Wind production by country