Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat

Agenda (1) Opening – stating the purpose and format for the session The relevance and utility for official statisticians of the Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates Overview of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates A system of rapid estimates: different products for different purposes Rapid estimates for a set of indicators: a dashboard for short-term economic developments

Agenda (2) Minimum quality requirements for rapid estimates: timeliness, reliability, accuracy, coverage Technical issues: (i) the use of hard and soft data; (ii) statistical and econometric techniques; (iii) revision policy and rapid estimates Creating the culture of rapid estimates Alternative to rapid estimates Towards a common international approach to rapid estimates Recommendations on Rapid Estimates to the UN Statistical Commission

1. The relevance and utility for official statisticians of the Glossary and of the Handbook on Rapid Estimates Purpose of rapid estimates –Early picture of the economic development Need to clarify the different typologies of rapid estimates –Glossary Need to have guidelines for the compilation of rapid estimates –Handbook

Why a glossary on rapid estimates? Confusion in what is a rapid estimate Different terms used in relation to an early estimate of key macroeconomic indicators: nowcasts, flash estimates, early-advanced-preliminary estimates Different contents and purposes associated to the different typologies of rapid estimate Different methodology

Glossary - contents Definition Purpose Methodological considerations (which techniques can be used) Information contents Purposes Actors (who should compile what)

Why a handbook on rapid estimates? No existing international guidance Need to adress standards of compilation and reporting of rapid estimates Collecting best practices, harmonising them in the production framework and derive principles Reference compilation guide for newcomers in the business International harmonisation For compilers and users

Handbook – Annotated Outline (1) 1. Introduction –Definition of rapid estimates, link to the glossary, purposes of the handbook, general framework and context 2. Rapid estimates –Definition of the different typologies of rapid estimates, their purposes and their characteristics 3. Methodological aspects and information contents –Compilation techniques associated to the different typologies of rapid estimates –Information input to be used in the compilation of the different rapid estimates

Handbook – Annotated Outline (2) 4. Target indicators for rapid estimates –Identification of the key short-term indicators suitable for rapid estimates 5. Rapid estimates in the statistical production process –Sequence of rapid estimates products and their role in the production process 6. Dashboard –Combination of rapid estimates for indicators for monitoring the evolution of the economy 7. Communication and culture –How to disseminate rapid estimates

Thank you for your attention!