1. Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns

2. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHO GOVERNS? WHO GOVERNS? 1.How do American elections determine the kind of people who govern us? 2.What matters most in deciding who wins presidential and congressional elections? TO WHAT ENDS? TO WHAT ENDS? 1.Do elections make a real difference in what laws get passed?

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4. Campaigns Today Campaign tasks performed by Campaign tasks performed by Media consultants Direct mail firms Polling firms Political technology firms Copyright © 2013 Cengage

5. Source: Federal Election Commission, 2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance Summary.

6. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Adapted from Federal Election Commission summary reports, January 2009 and May 2009. Dollar figures rounded. Inflation adjustment keyed to consumer price index 1976–2008, 3.74 (i.e., assumes that what cost $1.00 in 1976 cost $3.74 in 2008).

7. Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns, Spending on Media, 2008 Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded.

8. Campaigns Today Here And Abroad Here And Abroad In the U.S., elections have two crucial phases: getting nominated and getting elected. They both require an individual effort on the part of the candidate.In the U.S., elections have two crucial phases: getting nominated and getting elected. They both require an individual effort on the part of the candidate. In most of Europe, the political party decides who will be allowed to run and puts the candidate’s name on the ballot.In most of Europe, the political party decides who will be allowed to run and puts the candidate’s name on the ballot. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

9. Campaigns Today Better or Worse? Better or Worse? Extensive PollingExtensive Polling “High-Tech Canvassing”“High-Tech Canvassing” Campaign Spending and Fund RaisingCampaign Spending and Fund Raising Copyright © 2013 Cengage

10. Incumbents Incumbent- the person already holding an elective office Incumbent- the person already holding an elective office (90% reelected to the house) (90% reelected to the house) Coattails - the alleged tendency of candidates to win more votes in an election because of the presence at the top of the ticket of a better-known candidate, such as a president Coattails - the alleged tendency of candidates to win more votes in an election because of the presence at the top of the ticket of a better-known candidate, such as a president Do people still do it today? Do people still do it today? Copyright © 2013 Cengage

11. Presidential Versus Congressional Campaigns Presidential Race More Competitive More Competitive Winner usually gets less than 55% of the vote Larger Voter Turnout Larger Voter Turnout Must Rely On The Mass Media To Reach Voters Must Rely On The Mass Media To Reach Voters Incumbent Presidents Are Often Held Responsible For Whatever Has Gone Wrong Incumbent Presidents Are Often Held Responsible For Whatever Has Gone Wrong Congressional Race Less Competitive Less Competitive Winner usually gets over 60 % of the vote Smaller Voter Turnout Smaller Voter Turnout Closer Contact With The District’s Voters Closer Contact With The District’s Voters Even Incumbent Congressmen Can “Run Against Washington” Even Incumbent Congressmen Can “Run Against Washington” Copyright © 2013 Cengage

12. Presidential Campaigns Running for President Getting “Mentioned”Getting “Mentioned” Money - PAC $2,000Money - PAC $2,000 Organization - position papers (you have taken a “sound” position)Organization - position papers (you have taken a “sound” position) Strategy and Themes - How will you run your campaign. Slogan, timing, target, pos/neg.)Strategy and Themes - How will you run your campaign. Slogan, timing, target, pos/neg.) Copyright © 2013 Cengage Lisa Murkowski, a write- in candidate, won a Senate seat in Alaska, the first person to do this in any state since 1954. She defeated the Republican candidate. g36/g36/ZUMA Press/Newscom

13. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Political campaigns are hard work, even when you get to fly on the vice president’s airplane Tomas Muscionico/Contact Press Images Barack Obama campaigned on the slogan “Change We Can Believe In.” Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

14. Getting Elected to Congress Reapportionment- The reallocation of the number of representatives each state has in the House of Representatives Reapportionment- The reallocation of the number of representatives each state has in the House of Representatives Why its important: (to the states) Why its important: (to the states) increases or decreases the number of seats a state has in the House/Congress (not the Senate) More representatives = more influence increases or decreases a state’s number of electoral votes Redistricting - The drawing/redrawing of House/congressional (not Senate) district lines. (census every 10 years) Copyright © 2013 Cengage

15. Getting Elected To Congress The Problems Of Malapportionment and Gerrymandering The Problems Of Malapportionment and Gerrymandering Malapportionment - Drawing the boundaries of legislative districts so that they are unequal in population Malapportionment - Drawing the boundaries of legislative districts so that they are unequal in population Gerrymandering - Drawing the boundaries of legislative districts in bizarre or unusual shapes to favor one party Gerrymandering - Drawing the boundaries of legislative districts in bizarre or unusual shapes to favor one party Goals of politicians when they gerrymander during redistricting: To enhance political party strength/to minimize the strength of the opposition party To protect incumbents/to discourage challengers To increase minority representation/to decrease minority representation To punish foes/to reward friends

16. Winning The Primary Winning The Primary Sophomore surge- a an increase in votes congressional candidates usually get when the first run for reelectionSophomore surge- a an increase in votes congressional candidates usually get when the first run for reelection Staying In Office Staying In Office Most do what’s best for the locals, not for the nationMost do what’s best for the locals, not for the nation Florida has benefitted the most from reapportionment Florida has benefitted the most from reapportionment Copyright © 2013 Cengage Getting Elected To Congress

17. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

18. Two Kinds Of Campaign Issues  Position Issues The rival candidates have opposing views and the issue divides the voters. The rival candidates have opposing views and the issue divides the voters.  Valence Issues The voters are not divided on an important issue and examine whether a candidate fully supports their view. The voters are not divided on an important issue and examine whether a candidate fully supports their view.  What are examples of both? Copyright © 2013 Cengage

19. Television and Debates Television Television Paid Advertisements/CommercialsPaid Advertisements/Commercials (spots) (spots) Making the Nightly NewscastsMaking the Nightly Newscasts (visuals) (visuals) Debates Debates What effects do they have on elections?What effects do they have on elections? What risks are involved in televised debates?What risks are involved in televised debates?

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21. Politically Speaking: Clothespin Vote The vote cast by a person who does not like either candidate and so votes for the less objectionable of the two, putting a clothespin over his or her nose to keep out the unpleasant stench. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

22. In the 1888 presidential campaign, supporters of Benjamin Harrison rolled a huge ball covered with campaign slogans across the country. The gimmick, first used in 1840, gave rise to the phrase “keep the ball rolling.” Copyright © 2013 Cengage Alaska Governor Sarah Palin debates Senator Joe Biden during the 2008 campaign. Library of Congress Rick Wiking, Pool, File/AP Photo

23. Money The Sources of Campaign Money The Sources of Campaign Money Campaign Finance Rules Campaign Finance Rules A Second Campaign Finance Law A Second Campaign Finance Law New Sources of Money New Sources of Money Money and Winning Money and Winning **Most money comes from individuals** **Most money comes from individuals** **Both Public and Private funding** **Both Public and Private funding**

24. Eliminating Soft money Prohibiting or regulating campaign contributions to political parties and/or contributions for party building activities. Prohibiting or regulating campaign contributions to political parties and/or contributions for party building activities. Soft Money became a problem after the 1971/74 Federal Election Campaign Act began to limit campaign contributions directly to the candidates in the form of Hard Money. Soft Money became a problem after the 1971/74 Federal Election Campaign Act began to limit campaign contributions directly to the candidates in the form of Hard Money. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

25. For: For: Soft money was used to circumvent limits on hard money Lessens concern about the undue influence of “fat cats”/buying of influence, especially that of Big Business and their PAC’s Provides more disclosure and transparency Decreases overall cost of campaigns Made into law as part of the BCRA (Bi-partisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002) (a.k.a. the McCain-Feingold Bill) Against: Against: Violates First Amendment – freedom of expression Violates Buckley v. Valeo Party money is one step removed from contributor and candidate Weakens political parties and their ability to raise needed money for campaigns and other expenditures Might lessen grassroots participation McConnell v. Federal Election Commission - Copyright © 2013 Cengage

26. Limiting independent expenditures Limiting money spent by individuals and groups not directly affiliated with the candidate or the party Limiting money spent by individuals and groups not directly affiliated with the candidate or the party Example Example stopping groups like “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” from placing attack ads on against John Kerry during the 2004 presidential election campaign.stopping groups like “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” from placing attack ads on against John Kerry during the 2004 presidential election campaign. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

27. For: For: Can be used to circumvent limits on hard money Levels the playing field Will reduce negative issue ads and “mud-slinging” Candidates want to control their own campaigns Lessens concerns about undue influence of “fat cats”/buying of influence Made into law as part of the BCRA (Bi-partisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002) (a.k.a. the McCain-Feingold Bill). Specifically, electioneering advertisements by independent groups is banned in the last 60 days before a general election and 30 days before a primary election. Against: Against: Violates First Amendment – freedom of expression Violates First Amendment – freedom of expression Violates Buckley v. Valeo Violates Buckley v. Valeo Might lessen grassroots participation Might lessen grassroots participation Copyright © 2013 Cengage

28. Raising limits on individual contributions Increasing the dollar amount individuals may give to a campaign, parties, or PAC’s. The 1971 & 1974 Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) set the hard money contribution levels at $1000 per individual for each candidate The BCRA raised the contribution limits in 2002 to $2000 per individual for each candidate each election; $5000 to PAC’s; $10,000 to state and local parties; $25,000 to national committees. Copyright © 2013 Cengage

29. For: For: Candidates can spend less time fundraising Decreases influences of PAC’s Decreases restrictions on First Amendment Rights Decreases reliance on less regulated forms of campaign funds (Before BCRA, this meant soft money. Today, this means from 527 committees, independent expenditure groups. Against: Against: Allows the rich to buy/have more influence Too much money on the process already Drives up the cost of campaigns Copyright © 2013 Cengage

30. Candidates first made phonographic recordings of their speeches in 1908. Warren G. Harding is shown here recording a speech during the 1920 campaign. Copyright © 2013 Cengage John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon debate during the 1960 presidential campaign. Bettmann/CORBIS Paul Schutzer/ Time Life Pictures/ Getty Images

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32. What decides the Election Party Party Issues, (especially the economy) Issues, (especially the economy) Prospective voting - voting for a candidate because you favor his or her ideas for handling issuesProspective voting - voting for a candidate because you favor his or her ideas for handling issues Retrospective voting - voting for a candidate because you like his or her past actions in officeRetrospective voting - voting for a candidate because you like his or her past actions in office Campaign (Partisan loyalty, watch them handle pressure, judge the character and values) Campaign (Partisan loyalty, watch them handle pressure, judge the character and values) Finding a winning coalition Finding a winning coalition Loyalty (80% to the two parties)Loyalty (80% to the two parties)

33. Figure 10.2 Growth of PACs 1979–2010 Copyright © 2013 Cengage Source: Federal Election Commission.

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35. Figure 10.3 The Economy and Vote for President, 1948–2008 Copyright © 2013 Cengage Notes: (1) Each dot represents a presidential election, showing the popular vote received by the incumbent president’s party. (2) 1992 data do not include votes for independent candidate H. Ross Perot. (3) 2004 value on RDI is projection from data available in December 2004. Source: From American Public Opinion, 5th ed., by Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin. Copyright © 1995 by Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers, Inc. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc. 2008 update from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

36. Copyright © 2013 Cengage Union members were once heavily Democratic, but since Ronald Reagan began winning white union votes in 1980, these votes have been up for grabs. At a public meeting, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher challenged Barack Obama on his tax plan and quickly became known as “Joe the Plumber.” AP Images Al Goldis/ AP Photo

37. Copyright © 2013 Cengage a 1968 election had three major candidates (Humphrey, Nixon, and Wallace). b Jewish vote estimated from various sources; since the number of Jewish persons interviewed often is less than 100, the error in this figure, as well as that for nonwhites, may be large. c 1980 election had three major candidates (Carter, Reagan, and Anderson). d 1992 election had three major candidates (Clinton, Bush, and Perot). e For 1980–1992, refers to age 60 and over. f For 1988, white Protestants only. g For 1996, refers to age 45 and over. Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188. For 2000: Exit polls supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008: CNN exit polls.

38. Figure 10.4 Partisan Division of the Presidential Vote, 1856–2008 Copyright © 2013 Cengage Sources: Information for 1856–1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 3rd ed., 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73.

39. M E M O R A N D U M To: Arjun Bruno, National Party Chairman From: Arlene Marcus, State Party Chairwoman Subject: Supporting a National Primary In the past few election cycles, our state’s role in the party nomination for president virtually has disappeared with a May primary date. Several states have leapfrogged ahead of us, and party leaders have indicated that they do not want any more states to move up their primary date. The national party needs to find a way to ensure that all states, large and small, have a real voice in nominating a presidential candidate. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

40. Arguments for: 1. A single national primary permits equal participation by all states and presents a fair compromise with the increased number of delegates that larger states send to the national conventions, much like the compromises during the original constitutional debates. 2. The nominating process needs to be less costly, particularly when presidential candidates realistically need to raise $100 million a year before the general election to be competitive for the nomination. Holding all primaries and caucuses on a single day will reduce overall election expenses significantly. 3. If the American electorate knows presidential nominations will be decided by each party on one day, then they will be more likely to vote, a significant factor for elections in which historically, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voters typically participate. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

41. Arguments against: 1. Each state decides in conjunction with the national party when its primary or caucus will take place, and the federal system of government designed by the Framers did not guarantee that all states would be treated equally at all times. 2. A national primary would favor candidates with high name recognition and funding to further that recognition and would severely disadvantage lesser known candidates within the party. 3. Even though the general election takes place on one day, voter turnout in the United States still is lower than in other advanced industrialized democracies, which suggests that other factors influence who participates. Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?

42. Your decision: Support a National Primary? Oppose a National Primary? Copyright © 2013 Cengage WHAT WOULD YOU DO?