1. Llad Phillips1 The Family and Delinquency

2. Llad Phillips2 Themes in the Course Drugs: Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol and tobacco Prisons getting more money than education Unemployment rate for youth is rising; what will happen to the crime rate for youth? Principle of unintended consequences   Abandon deterrence for detention: get the gulag   GI Bill for WWII warriors: destroy the black family

3. Llad Phillips3 News

4. Llad Phillips4 5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek Graph Source: Lancet Pot

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7. 7 Recovery/Rehabilitation Adult population Sober Toxic 13 % of Adult Population In Need of Treatment, Drug & Alcohol Addiction, NJ 2003

8. Llad Phillips8 Toxic Transition Model Sober Toxic Sober Toxic Sober   Recovery rate    Recidivism rate

9. Llad Phillips9 Transition Model-2 P toxic (t=1) P Sober (t=1)   P toxic (t=2) P Sober (t=2  P toxic = 0.80 P sober = 0.20 of 13% of addicted adults, so 10.4% of all adults are in a toxic state, while 89.6% of all adults are sober

10. Llad Phillips10 Transition Model-3

11. Llad Phillips11 News

12. Llad Phillips12 Pew Center on the States

13. Llad Phillips13 Crime rates Beginning to Rise

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15. Llad Phillips15 16-19 Year olds

16. Llad Phillips16 Lauren Spector

17. Llad Phillips17 The Family and Delinquency What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency? How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?

18. Llad Phillips18 The Importance of Causality A theme in this course

19. Reference: Lecture Six

20. Reference: Lecture Four

21. Llad Phillips21 Expenditures per Capita Offenses Per Capita Crime Control Technology South Dakota North Dakota 0.025 Index crimes per capita $100 Total cost = expenditures per capita Total cost = damages to victims 0.050 Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05 so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota $200 $0 0 High loss rate state

22. Llad Phillips22 CJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. Income

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24. Llad Phillips24 Family Education System Community Social Institutions Shaping Youth

25. Llad Phillips25 “The Rotten Kid Theorem” Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics” Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics”  Figure 1

26. Llad Phillips26 Daughter’s Income Father’s Income

27. Llad Phillips27 Daughter’s Income, Y D Father’s Income, Y F Daughter’s Selfish Preferences: U D = U D (Y D ) Good Better Best

28. Llad Phillips28 Daughter’s Income Father’s Income Family Joint Income Opportunities When Both the Child and Parent Agree

29. Llad Phillips29 R Short-sighted selfish daughter prefers point R Daughter’s Income Father’s Income

30. Llad Phillips30 Daughter’s Income Father’s Income Family Income = Daughter’s Income + Father’s Income

31. Father’s Income R J Daughter’s Income Family Income Is Maximum At Point J

32. Llad Phillips32 How Does the Parent Induce the Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest? Did King Lear Have It Right?

33. Llad Phillips33 Daughter’s Income Father’s Income Father’s Altruistic Preferences: U F = U F (Y D, Y F )

34. Llad Phillips34 Why Does The Parent Care For The Child? Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival of the genes Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival of the genes

35. Father’s Income R J Daughter’s Income A If the father is sufficiently altruistic, then the daughter’s enlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing point J that leads to point A

36. Father’s Income R J Daughter’s Income B If the father is insufficiently altruistic, then the daughter will prefer point R to point B and, as a result, family income and fortunes will be lower

37. Llad Phillips37 So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and caring flourish? In what kind of environment does love and caring flourish?  both biological parents are present  educated, enlightened self-interest  a family with enough time and resources to care for one another

38. Llad Phillips38 Trends Affecting Families Changes in Family Structure

39. Source: US Statistical Abstract

40. Llad Phillips40 Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC Marriage Rates

41. Llad Phillips41 Number of Divorces and Children Affected Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

42. Llad Phillips42 Age Specific Divorce Rates, men and Women Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

43. Llad Phillips43 Divorce Rates by Duration of Marriage Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

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49. Source: US Statistical Abstract

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54. Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

55. Llad Phillips55 Post World War II Phenomenon “In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black families living in Harlem were intact, and the teenage mother raising her children alone was virtually unknown...” “In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black families living in Harlem were intact, and the teenage mother raising her children alone was virtually unknown...” Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

56. Llad Phillips56 July 

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58. Llad Phillips58 Eric Monkkonen

59. Llad Phillips59 Homicide as an index of Crime

60. Llad Phillips60 As Homicide Goes, So Goes Violence

61. Llad Phillips61 Speculation About 50 Year Cycles Government Policy Makes substances In demand illegal Creates a Black Market  Criminal class Arises to supply Illegal substances You fight to protect your valuable turf and Pretty soon blood flows

62. Llad Phillips62 35,000 Mexicans Have died in drug- Related violence Since December 2006 Murder rate per 100,000 Mexico: 18 US: 5 Columbia: 35

63. Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

64. Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

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66. Llad Phillips66 Birth Rates for Unmarried Women By Age of Mother Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

67. Llad Phillips67 Per Cent Low Birth Weight By Age of Mother Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

68. Llad Phillips68 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth survey of 14-23 year olds survey of 14-23 year olds self-report information about contact with the criminal justice system for -1979 self-report information about contact with the criminal justice system for -1979  ever stopped by the police  ever charged with a crime  ever convicted of a crime family income family income family structure when youth was age 14 family structure when youth was age 14

69. 14-23 years of age Report: never stopped Report: ever stopped 28.5% Report: ever charged 17.4% Report: never charged Report: never convicted Report: ever convicted 10.1% National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)

70. Llad Phillips70 NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14 4,927 boys and young men, ages 14-23 Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”

71. Llad Phillips71 NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14 3119 girls and young women, ages 14-19, never married Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”

72. Llad Phillips72 Viewpoints About the Family and Delinquency Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or attachment explains delinquency(1969) Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or attachment explains delinquency(1969) Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological parents missing explains running away, truancy, and auto theft(1983) Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological parents missing explains running away, truancy, and auto theft(1983) Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Turner: Being raised by a mother alone explains delinquency(1977) Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Turner: Being raised by a mother alone explains delinquency(1977) Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

73. Llad Phillips73 Themes for this lecture

74. Llad Phillips74 So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and caring flourish? In what kind of environment does love and caring flourish?  both biological parents are present  educated, enlightened self-interest  a family with enough time and resources to care for one another

75. Llad Phillips75 The Importance of Social Institutions Family: social control; human capital Family: social control; human capital School: social control; human capital School: social control; human capital Religious organizations: moral compliance Religious organizations: moral compliance Community groups and centers Community groups and centers

76. Llad Phillips76 Questions

77. Llad Phillips77 Question: Why are people violent?

78. Llad Phillips78 Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight them) Paul Seabright, The Company of Strangers, A Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Princeton U. After people settled down as farmers they needed social institutions to help them interact with strangers Markets allowed people to deal productively with strangers Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of disputes Adam Smith; The Wealth of Nations(1776) “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight them) Paul Seabright, The Company of Strangers, A Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Princeton U. After people settled down as farmers they needed social institutions to help them interact with strangers Markets allowed people to deal productively with strangers Legal systems and governments allowed settlement of disputes Adam Smith; The Wealth of Nations(1776) “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”

79. Llad Phillips79 THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America

80. Llad Phillips80 What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?

81. Llad Phillips81 Social Control of Citizenry Civil law and authority Civil law and authority  First line of defense: moral compliance and good citizenship  Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of punishment)  Third line of defense: detention Martial law and authority Martial law and authority  Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army

82. Llad Phillips82 Percent Control    Moral Compliance DeterrenceDetention Riot Civil Law Martial Law National Guard Schematic

83. Llad Phillips83 Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA? 0.74 % 0.74 %

84. Llad Phillips84 The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France

85. Llad Phillips85 Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?

86. Llad Phillips86 #24 USA 0.04 per 1000 http://www.nationmaster.com/

87. Llad Phillips87 Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?

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89. Llad Phillips89 What Are We Afraid Of?

90. Llad Phillips90 Percent Control    Moral Compliance DeterrenceDetention Riot Civil Law Martial Law National Guard  0.74% Prison

91. Llad Phillips91 We Are In the Third Line of Defense: Detention Are we close to the edge? Are we close to the edge? Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority? Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?  Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts riot  13 dead  192 injured  Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los Angeles

92. Llad Phillips92 That’s All Folks

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