1. Alliance Formation: The Role of Power and Threat

2. Overview Three frameworks are presented (Glenn Snyder, Stephen Walt and Randall Schweller). These include four separate theories of alliance formation: -- Coalition theory -- Game theory and bargaining -- Balance of threat theory -- Balance of interests theory

3. Explaining Alliance Formation: the Rational Model (Glenn Snyder) A broad framework of analysis that prescribes general rules of alliance behavior. These include: -- benefits should be higher than costs -- does NOT automatically assume minimizing benefits and maximizing costs -- guiding principle is the marginal utility of adding new allies -- other important factors determine the cost-benefit analysis, such as (a) strategic interests and; (b) possible existence of conflicts among allies

4. Core Functions of Alliance Formation Identification of friends and enemies (reduces uncertainty) Increase of alliance capabilities (i.e. aggregation of power resources) Creation of various interests: -- strategic interests (preventing the shift in the control of resources) -- reputational interests (maintaining the ally’s incentives to fulfill its side of the alliance contract)

5. Coalition Theory Assumption: the payoffs for the individual allies vary with their shares of coalition resources Each party seeks to join “the minimum winning coalition” (Gamson and Riker) Strength differences determine various alliance values In comparison to other patterns of alignment, formal alliances modify: (a) the original expectations and intentions (b) settlement of specific issues in dispute

6. Game Theory and Bargaining Assumptions: three or more players; utility maximization; communication among actors is allowed Bargaining power in alliance formation is a function of two broad determinants: -- parties’ inherent valuation of the prospective alliance -- comparative availability and attractiveness of the alternatives -- time and preferences of the bargainers and their attitudes toward risk Good alternatives are sources of bargaining leverage Bargaining power may be skewed by various norms (e.g. norms of equality in the negotiation of the alliance)

7. Balancing and Bandwagoning I (Stephen Walt) Balancing – allying with others against the prevailing threat Bandwagoning – alignment with the sources of danger Balancing and bandwagoning are defined in terms of capabilities: -- balancing assumes alignment with the weaker side -- bandwagoning assume alignment with the stronger one Balancing is far more common that bandwagoning

8. Balancing and Bandwagoning II Pease visit Blackboard or contact me at ivanovid@ucmail.uc.edu for details and further information. ivanovid@ucmail.uc.edu Thank you for your understanding.