2. Fundamentals of Political Science Dr. Sujian Guo Professor of Political Science San Francisco State Unversity Email: sguo@sfsu.edu http://bss.sfsu.edu/sguo

3. “Only the rational choice model is capable of satisfying the requirements for a scientific political science” – W. Riker

4. What motivates human behavior? Rational choice theory is based on the choice of motivational variables as explanatory (independent) variables for the explanation of human behavior, social conflict or cooperation in a given society. Those motivations include –self-interest –public interest –economic, political, and moral motivations

5. What is the hardcore of rational choice?  The hardcore of rational choice would be based on the conception of human beings as homo economicus – economic man pursues self-interest (sole motive) to obtain the highest possible well-being for himself at the least possible costs given available information about opportunities and constraints on his ability to achieve his goals. This is referred to as “rationality.”

6. What is the hardcore of rational choice? Rational behavior is to “choose the best among all possible” of different means and alternative ends by weighing the relative importance or utility assigned to each particular mean or end. “Irrational behavior” is just the opposite – “choose the worst among all possible” – inefficient, counterproductive, self-defeating, symbolic, etc. – Individual choice example – Policy choice example

7. Background This approach emerged in the study of politics in the 1950s and 1960s. It was first contributed by economists. Some key works by prize winners: –Kenneth Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values. –Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy. –Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action. –Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict –William H. Riker, The Theory of Political Coalitions.

8. Main Characteristics of Rational Choice Theory The approach is ‘methodologically individualist’: takes actors as units (usually individuals, but can also be groups, parties or states). Most important elements or characteristics of rational choice theories: –Preferences: Assumed desires and wants of individuals. Actors will prefer some outcomes over others (e.g., maximize power, votes, etc.)

9. Main Characteristics of Rational Choice Theory Strategies: Actions or means available to actors. Rationality: Refers to consistency of preferences for ranking alternatives, and choice of best possible strategy. Constraints: Constitute the ‘rules of the game’, and will influence actions and outcomes.

10. Main Characteristics of Rational Choice Theory Uncertainty and strategic interaction: Outcomes may not be known for sure. Individuals can only choose actions, not directly outcomes. Strategic interaction is an important kind of uncertainty, and is at the core of most interesting rational choice applications in the study of politics. Equilibrium: exists when there are no individual incentives to change one’s behavior (i.e., nuclear mutual destruction – no possibility to achieve a more preferred outcome, given the actions of the other actors involved). It is used to predict and explain outcomes of strategic interaction.

11. Prisoners’ Dilemma and collective action “If you stay silent you will each be sentenced to 1 year in prison; however, if you confess and testify against your partner, you will be free, while your partner will get a 10-year sentence; on the other hand, if both of you confess, you will both be sentenced to 5 years.” This situation can be represented in a table:

12. PRISONER 2 Not confessConfess (cooperate) (defect) Not confess PRISONER 1 (cooperate)1, 110, 0 Confess (defect)0, 105, 5 **Pay-offs: first number indicates years in prison for Prisoner1; second number years in prison for Prisoner 2.

13. Rational choice approaches combine a “scientific” emphasis on rigorous analytical models with a strong theoretical focus on human values. On one hand, human preferences, interests, and objectives are used as the basic explanatory and predictive variables of human behavior while on the other hand more rigorous “scientific” techniques borrowed from the natural sciences, ranging from statistical techniques to mathematical modeling, are employed for scientific explanation. Strengths

14. Weaknesses However, the problem is what is taken as "rational" - preferences are defined to be rational if they are complete and transitive. That is, that the decision maker is able to compare all of the alternatives, and that these comparisons are consistent. This is often not true in real world. If uncertainty is involved, then more assumptions have to be made in addition to rational preferences.

15. Weaknesses Rationality can also mean that the decision maker always chooses the most preferred option, which is often not true in the real world. To simplify calculation and make prediction, some rather unrealistic assumptions are made about the world. These can include: –An individual has precise information about exactly what will occur under any choice made. –An individual has time and ability to weigh every choice against every other choice. –An individual is fully aware of all possible choices.