1. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator The Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Developed by Conflict to Peace International Consulting Ltd (CPIC)

2. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator What is the Pattern of Conflict Indicator? The Pattern of Conflict Indicator is a unique client tool developed by CPIC’s team of practitioners. It is based on our on-the-ground experience of conflict in over 30 countries. Coupled with our research, these experiences demonstrate that whilst every conflict is different a consistent pattern runs through them all. That pattern illustrates how conflicts follows a series of phases each of which is influenced by the same factors.

3. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator How can the Pattern of Conflict help those living in Conflict? The CPIC Pattern of Conflict Indicator enables our clients to: Gain an understanding of different phases of conflict. Anticipate conflict change and opportunities. Mitigate the negative and accelerate the positive in any phase. Demonstrate effective leadership.

4. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Why Does the Pattern of Conflict Indicator Matter? The Pattern of Conflict Indicator can help those affected by violence to: Become Community and National Leaders for Peace. Develop Strategies and Actions that can form the Foundation for Peace. Promote a greater understanding of the dynamics that fuel conflict within their Community and Society.

5. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator CPIC Six Phases of Conflict Phase 1 Pre-Conflict – long-standing injustices create the dynamic for conflict. Phase 2 Conflict – violence becomes the dominant action. Phase 3 Conflict Transition – conflict fatigue allows new ideas to emerge. Phase 4 Ceasefire and Pre-Negotiation – citizens and combatants become aware of an opportunity for peace. Phase 5 Formal Negotiations and Agreement – key players seek to create a formal peace agreement. Phase 6 Post-Agreement – parties begin the implementation of the peace agreement.

6. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator CPIC - Seven Factors That Influence Each Phase of Conflict The Pattern of Conflict Indicator identifies seven factors that influence each phase of conflict. Trends and dynamics relating to: Politics Culture Security and Justice Evolving Issues of Conflict Conflict Goals—competing and complementary Economy Dominate Actors

7. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Linking the Phases and the Factors The influence of each factor evolves and runs through every phase. The key is to anticipate the influence each factor will have on each phase of the Pattern of Conflict. Here are some examples.

8. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Pattern of Conflict Indicator-Example #1 Phase 1—Pre-ConflictFactor Influence—the Economy economic marginalization of some segments of society high unemployment levels especially among youth low income levels economic corruption prevalent strong reliance on public funding and services impacts of faltering economy on prices and services economic uncertainty and instability diminishing private and public investment limited State capacity to address grievances or provide security

9. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Pattern of Conflict Indicator-Example #2 Phase 3--Conflict Transition Influence Factor--Cultural new voices and ideas merge conflict fatigue drives the desire for peace leaders across society direct greater energy towards the search for a positive change. potential opponents of agreement take stock and remain quiet. across society, war weariness shifts the intransigent war culture. underlying cultures that fuel conflict are challenged or rejected. calls for peace grow. previously traditional institutions become supporters of change.

10. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Pattern of Conflict Indicator - Example #3 Phase 5 Formal Negotiations and Agreement Influence Factor—Issues of Conflict active stakeholder constituent consultations. scope of negotiations and tabled positions defined. external and internal issue posturing. managing expectations among negotiators, constituents and citizens. communication strategy by the various participants to potentially different target audiences. competing issue message boxes by the different participants. potential ratification process; internally within all parties to Agreement and\or constitutional referendum. potential election timetable.

11. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Pattern of Conflict Indicator - Example #4 Phase 6 Post Agreement Influence Factor-Politics new structures of governance take shape. Power-sharing or “unity” government. agreement Implementation; this can be drawn out and difficult as weaknesses and levels of resistance emerge. the true measure of each party to implement agreement is revealed. political culture in flux as traditional enemies can find themselves on the same side or traditional allies on opposing sides. further complex and highly political negotiations flow from framework agreement. political culture is reflected across society as families and friends split over ‘Agreement’. some para\military leaders make the difficult transition to political leaders. political “winners” and “losers” defined by role in conflict and Agreement.

12. CPIC 2016 / Pattern Of Conflict Indicator Want to Learn More? If you would like to learn more about the Pattern of Conflict and how it can help citizens alter the violence and instability affecting their lives? Send an enquiry to CPIC at conflict2peaceic@gmail.comconflict2peaceic@gmail.com or twitter @C2Pic