1. 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv : Reader Emeritus in Environmental Engineering, Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich Institution of Civil Engineers Leeds: October 14 th 2014 The Energy Trilema: The Challenges of Energy Security and Affordability of our Future Energy Supplies

2. 2 The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies Some of the Key issues What are key issues of Energy Security, particularly in the next few years with older stations closing and UK now dependent on over 50% of its gas from imported sources and also two thirds of its coal? What might the future electricity generation mix look like? How does UK energy mix compare with that of other countries? What contribution might “Fracking” provide for security for electricity generation? To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity? What are the cost implications of the options available? What is the impact of support for renewables on the price of electricity? Are the lights likely to go out over the next few years?

3. Weekly volume weighted average Wholesale Prices Wholesale prices are 2.5 times what they were in 2004 Wholesale Cost of Electricity 3 UK no longer self sufficient in gas UK Government Projection in 2003 for 2020 Oil reaches $130 a barrel Langeled Line to Norway Severe Cold Spells wholesale prices updated to 16 th September 2014

4. 4 Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices. However in recent months retail prices have risen above long term wholesale trends.

5. 5 What are causes of price rises in recent years? In period 2004-13, Electricity Bills for average household have risen from ~ £288 to around ~£577 or ~100% * How much can be attributed to support for Renewables under the Renewable obligation? Support for All Renewables in 2012-13 was £1.99 billion **. However 313,569,728 MWh was supplied representing an increase of 0.69 p/kWh in retail price of electricity At typical domestic unit prices of 13 – 14p per kWh this represents and increase of just 4.9%. Of this the impact of onshore wind on bills in 2012-13 was 0.22p per kWh or ~ 1.7%. For offshore the figures are 0.16p and 1.2% respectively. Wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh by end of 2013. * Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website ** OFGEM Annual Report

6. 6 CO 2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh) 6 France UK Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh * Extracted from IEA Statistics in Jan 2014 – data relate to 2010 World Average 0.550

7. Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries 2010 7 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste

8. Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 8 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApproximate emission factor per kWh Comments Coal~900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station Oil~800-900Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas (Steam)~600gConventional Steam Station Gas (CCGT)~400gMost modern stations may be as low as 380g Nuclear5 – 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: India ~ 24% * DECC Guidance for reporting July 2014 Overall UK including transmission ~541g* Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

9. 9 Import Gap Impact of temporary switch to coal generation Gas supply has become critical at times – e.g. at end of March 2013 – down to 6 hours supply following technical problems on Norwegian Pipeline. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*)Dec 2013 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25- 35%) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p [5 - 11]/kWh8.5p/kWh

10. * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. 10 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*)Dec 2013 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 70% (at present 25- 35%) Available now (but gas is running out) 8.0p [5 - 11]8.5p/kWh nuclear fission 5 - 10% (France 75 - 80%) - (currently 18- 20% and falling) Long construction times (capital cost for Hinkley increased from £16 billion to £24.5 billion 7.75p [5.5 - 10] /kWh 9.25p (Hinkley)/ kWh nuclear fusion unavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration [7.5 – 15p] - unlikely before 2025 9.5 – 13.4p/ kWh

11. 11 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p / kWh Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

12. 12 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

13. 13 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Hydro (inc. mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0 – 9.9p/ kWh Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

14. 14 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Photovoltaic <5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, and costs are coming down – but low load factors 25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection) 12.3p/ kWh * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Climate Change Report 2011 suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) in 2020 - ~ 2.0 GW. But 2.1 GW already installed (Oct. 2014)

15. 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% but could be larger with significant imports available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification. Questions over sustainability 9 - 13p depending on technology Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Photovoltaic <5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, and costs are coming down – but low load factors 25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection) 12.3p/ kWh To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass

16. 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly 25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p BIOMASS??5%Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

17. 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly 25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p BIOMASS??5%Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

18. 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Tidal Barrages / Lagoons 5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. ?? Swansea Bay Lagoon 26p +/-5 Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly 25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p BIOMASS??5%Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 The Royal Oak was sunk 75 years ago this evening (14 th October) with the loss of 800 lives.

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity Tidal Barrages / Lagoons 5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020 26p +/-5 Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly 25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p BIOMASS??5%Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity Tidal Barrages / Lagoons 5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020 26p +/-5 Not Costed Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 11p for <2MW projects Not Costed Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% development needed to reduce costs. 12.5p +/- 2.5p 11.5 – 12.0p/ kWh On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 9.0–9.9p/ kWh Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation further research needed to bring down costs significantly 25p +/-8 (13-15p) 12.3p /kWh BIOMASS??5%Questions over sustainability 9 – 13p Not Costed Generation Type Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Predicted Cost in 2020 May 2011 (*) Gas 8p Dec 2013 (*) Gas 8.5p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 20 MW ?? 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Not Costed * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 * Energy Generation Costs: DECC 2013 Central Projection

21. 21 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Offshore Wind much more expensive. Solar PV is now mature but also more expensive than on shore wind. Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop significant carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9 th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

22. 22 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 the UK will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices from countries such as Norway, Russia, Middle East Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

23. Impact of Fracking on Electricity Supply to 2030 Output declines by 95% over first 3-4 years Total output from Fracking Well over 20 years is equivalent to two 3 MW wind turbines 23

24. Based on Figure 3.1 in Tyndall (2011b) Report The most optimistic scenario data from above are used Electricity Scenario assumes similar split of gas use for electricity / non-electricity demand 5% improvement in efficiency for CCGT generation plant Maximum generation from Fracked gas = ~36.5 TWh by 2030 Estimates of Total UK Production of Fracked Gas 24

25. Assume Highest Projection for Fracked Gas Future Demand – Climate Change Committee (2011) estimates Assuming significant growth in electricity for electric vehicles and heat pumps Alternative demand – limited growth in electric vehicles and heat pumps. Renewable Generation Current Projections for Onshore and Offshore wind 1 million homes/year fitted with PV ~ 40% fitted by 2030 Severn Tidal Barrage or equivalent completed by 2025 Fossil Fuel/Nuclear Generation Existing Nuclear / Coal Stations close as published 09/09/2013 New Nuclear completions at one reactor per year from 2021. New Coal with CCS as demonstration schemes @ 300 MW per annum from 2020 & 1000 MW per annum from mid 2020s Gas including Fracked Gas will cover any shortfall between DEMAND and COAL + NUCLEAR + RENEWABLE GENERATION 25 Future Scenarios for Electricity Generation up to 2030

26. 26 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil 26 Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear? New Coal ? Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Oil Data for demand derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Fracked Gas Limited electric cars or heat pumps

27. 27 26th Sep 27th Sep 28th Sep 29th Sep 30th Sep Graph shows Wind Energy Prediction 48 and 24 hours in advance and also actual output. Predictions are now very good Data abstracted from BMReports Website Predictability of UK Wind Generation To what extent would variable renewables such as wind cause issues on the secure supply of electricity?

28. 28 How Predictable is Wind Energy? Predictions made for each hour in 2013 had a correlation of 96.48% Predictions made for each hour in 2014 have had a correlation of 97.06% up to 5 th October 2014 Data abstracted daily from BMReports Website. Last occurrence at 08:30 on 6th October 2014

29. 29 06 th October 2014 To GB From GB Data abstracted from BMReports Website at 21:30 on 6th October 2014 Net Generation in GB rises from 18941MW at 0500 to 38195MW at 0800 an increase of 19254MW in 3 hours. Maximum change in Wind Output in a 3 hour period on day was 2460 MW (on this occasion it reduced the net generation demand change). Does Wind Variability cause problems with other generation?

30. 30 Since 2012 load factors of Gas, Hydro, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind and Bioenergy have been comparable close to 30% Load Factor Variation of Load Factors over last 15 years Data abstracted from DUKES (2014) Tables 5.9 & 6.5

31. 31 Annual Wind Variations are in phase with Demand Wind Load Factor Variations follow general demand trend. Solar Load Factor trend is complementary to that of wind Data for 2013 abstracted from DECC, Elexon and BMReports Websites – Oct 1 st – 5 th 2014

32. 32 Generation at the Domestic Level Energy Generation Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally less suitable for other businesses Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2014 Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer Approximate annual estimate of generation = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.1 hours in year load/capacity factor of 10%

33. 33 Current and Future Generation Costs Effective Renewable Costs ROC banding introduced Volume Weighted Average wholesale prices over year Effective Renewable Costs = Wholesale Price + ROC Value

34. In the Next 10 Years Energy Security and Cost issues in the UK will become just as important as Carbon reduction and at times supply could become critical. New nuclear and coal will not be available until after 2020 and there will be an increasing dependance on imported gas at volatile prices. Renewables such as Wind are now very predictable at the 24 hour time scale and can be used strategically with gas generation for a supply which is secure and can respond to demand. Currently support for renewables is less than 10% of retail prices. The UK needs a diverse mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels to provide the resources to tackle the Trilema of Climatye Change, Energy Security and the Cost of Future Energy 34 The future is our Responsibility

35. 35 Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years? Closure of Nuclear Stations Hinkley Point B and Hunterston are down rated at 70%. Heysham 1, Hinkley Point B, Hartlepool, and Hunterston have all been affected by cracking which may mean up to 4 units out of action until end of December pose questions on extended lives indicated above. StationTypeCapacityStartedClosure* WylfaMagnox49019712015 Heysham 1AGR2 x 5801983/42019 Dungeness BAGR2 x 5451983/52028 Heysham 2AGR2 x 61519882023 HartlepoolAGR2 x 5951983/42024 Hinkley Point BAGR2 x 610 (430)19762023 Hunterston BAGR2 x 610 (430)1976/72023 TornessAGR2 x 6251988/92023 Sizewell BPWR118819952035 * World Nuclear Association – September 2014

36. 36 CoalCapacity (GW) Scheduled ClosureActual Closure Cockenzie1.2 By end of 2015 or before if 20000 hours running since 1 st Jan 2008 has been exceeded March 2013 Didcot A2March 2013 Ironbridge1.0End 2015 Kingsnorth2March 2013 Tilbury1.1October 2013 Oil Fawley1March 2013 Grain1.4December 2012 Littlebrook D1.1March 2015 Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years? Closure of Coal/Oil Stations Above stations opted out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive and must close by end of 2015 at latest. On October 6 th 2014 – an announced was made that Longannet (2.23 GW) may also close in 2017 even though it complies with the LCPD

37. 37 Strategies being taken by National Grid Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR) Providing opportunity for large industrial consumers to shed load between period 32 (i.e. 16:00hrs) and period 40 (20:00 hours) over the Triad Period November to February. Consumers will be paid for such action. Planned reduction of 570MW for 2014/15 (or ~ 1% of peak demand) And 1140MW for 2015/16 Modelling of impact has been done on the basis of the Value of Lost Load payments at £17 per kWh – implying total payments of up to £1.15 M per day over the Triad Period Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR) provision is also planned – i.e having plant which have been mothballed or closed available for providing capacity. Are there likely to be issues on security in next few years?

38. 38 The future is our Responsibility Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher “ If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” And Finally We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making on energy – both on supply and demand. We must promote Energy Conservation and develop a coherent generation mix to provide a low carbon, energy secure and affordable future, not only for electricity but also for heat and transport. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 )

39. 39

40. 40 Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012 Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km Red line outlines extent for reference Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

41. 41 How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) Raising Awareness

42. 42 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya