1. 1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal ARAMCO 3 rd July 2013 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia Н.К.Тови

2. Energy is a key driver for Modern Economies However, energy production, generation and use is having an impact on the Climate. Brief Review of Climate Change Issues Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO 2 issues Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Technical options to reduce demand Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management Conclusions 2 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

3. 3 Increasing Occurrence of Drought 3

4. 4 Increasing Occurrence of Flood 4

5. 5 Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012 Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km Red line outlines extent for reference Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

6. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earths Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement 6

7. Temperature variations in last 160 years www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1 1-014_Warmest_Year.htm 7

8. Brief Review of Climate Change Issues Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO 2 issues Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Technical options to reduce demand Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management Conclusions 8 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

9. 9 Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita) How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO 2 than others? What is the magnitude of the CO 2 problem? 9 UK France World Average Saudi Arabia

10. 10 Fossil Fuel Options for Electricity Generation Boiler HP Generator Condenser Pump Fuel In Coal/ Oil/ Gas/ Nuclear Schematic of a conventional coal, gas, oil or nuclear power plant Typical Maximum Efficiency for coal/oil/gas ~ 38 - 39% with super critical steam conditions ~ 42 – 45% Nuclear Efficiencies ~ 30 – 34% for PWR ~ 38 – 40% for AGR High and Low Pressure Turbines LP

11. 11 Combined Cycle Gas Turbine for Electricity Generation HP LP Generator Condenser Pump Generator C T Air Combustion Gas Exhaust C – Compressor T – Turbine WHB – Waste Heat Boiler Efficiency 47 – 56 % WHB

12. Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 12 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApproximate emission factor per kWh Comments Coal~900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station Oil~800-900Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas (Steam)~600gConventional Steam Station Gas (CCGT)~400gMost modern may be as low as 380g Nuclear5 – 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Transmission/Distribution losses UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24% Overall UK~530g Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix

13. 13 CO 2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh) 13 France UK Saudi Arabia Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh World Average 0.550 Saudi Arabia

14. 14 Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries 14 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste

15. Brief Review of Climate Change Issues Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO 2 issues Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Technical options to reduce demand Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management Conclusions 15 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

16. 16 Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas. Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources. Import Gap In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight. In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available. Reduction because of switch back to coal

17. 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Energy Review 2002 9th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (at present 45- 50%) Available now (but gas is running out) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 ?

18. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Energy Review 2002 9th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT 0 - 80% (at present 45- 50%) Available now (but gas is running out) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] nuclear fission (long term) 0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed 2.5 - 3.5p 7.75p [5.5 - 10] nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration 2.5 - 3.5p [7.5 - 15]p - unlikely before 2025 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ?

19. 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9 th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p

20. 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Climate Change Committee (9 th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Off Shore Wind20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5

21. 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects

22. 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection)

23. 23 Options for Renewable Electricity Generation in 2020 in desert climates but not in UK Central Solar Power Plants in Spain In foreground PS10 – 11 MW – in background PS20 – 20 MW A 500 MW plant is due for completion in 2013 at Crescent Dunes in USA

24. 24 Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Plant Condenser Pump HP LP C T Air Combustion Gas Exhaust G G C – Compressor T – Turbine G – Generator WHB – Waste Heat Boiler WHB Parabolic Solar Power Plant Example: Hassi RMel, Algeria 25 MW Solar & 130 MW Combined Cycle

25. 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~20% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind20 - 40% some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly 15+ p 25p +/-8 Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol? Compressed gas from methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas ??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology

26. 26 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave No sound on video

27. 27 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device ScotRenewables Floating device

28. 28 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW may be 1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO 2 Tidal Barrages5 - 15% technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5

29. 29 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p25p +/-8 Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

30. 30 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~20% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind 20 - 40% available but costly ~2.5 - 3p12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro5% limited potential2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW Photovoltaic<<5% available, but very costly 15+ p 13-15p (2012 projection Biomass??5% available, but research needed 2.5 - 4p7 - 13p Wave/Tidal Stream currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%) technology limited - major development not before 2020 4 - 8p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave Tidal Barrages5 - 15% In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity

31. 31 Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind. Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9 th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Our Choices: They are difficult

32. 32 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 the UK will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

33. 33 Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal Existing Nuclear Oil 33 Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Existing Coal UK Gas Imported Gas New Nuclear? New Coal Existing Nuclear Other Renewables Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Oil 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. No electric cars or heat pumps Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010

34. Brief Review of Climate Change Issues Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO 2 issues Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Technical options to reduce demand Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management Conclusions 34 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

35. Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat Gas Heat Exchanger Exhaust Heat Exchanger 11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses 86% Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power 61% Flue Losses 36% 35

36. UEAs Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat 36

37. 37 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh198953514833 Emission factorkg/kWh0.460.1860.277 Carbon dioxideTonnes91526538915699 ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generation exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh204371563097757831451028263923 Emission factor kg/kWh -0.460.460.186 0.277 CO 2 Tonnes -44926602699525725610422 Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide 37 Carbon Savings at UEA CHP Plant

38. 38 Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer 38 Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power

39. A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit Uses electricity to drive compressor Throttle Valve Condenser Heat rejected Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Compressor 39 A more efficient way to provide Air-Conditioning Electricity

40. Absorption Heat Pump Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated Throttle Valve Condenser Heat rejected Evaporator Heat extracted for cooling High Temperature High Pressure Low Temperature Low Pressure Heat from external source W ~ 0 Absorber Desorber Heat Exchanger 40

41. A 1 MW Adsorption chiller 1 MW Reduces electricity demand in summer Increases electricity generated locally Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually Uses Waste Heat from CHP provides most of chilling requirements in summer 41 UEAs Aborption Chiller

42. 42 Sustainable Options for the future? Energy Generation Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! Renewable Heat Incentive available from late 2013/ early 2014 Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer Approximate annual estimate of generation = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095 hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

43. 43 Options available for the Householder Energy Generation Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locations Not generally recommended Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

44. 44 Alternative Strategies for Financing Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor. Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income. Schemes exist for small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less affected by planning issues Domestic/community PV up to 50kW Images courtesy of WindCrop Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk

45. 45 Options available for the Householder/Community Energy Generation Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present for those with mains gas. Most convenient if running on pellets Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

46. 46 Ground Source: Heat Pumps ~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating. Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting air-source heat pumps with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

47. Brief Review of Climate Change Issues Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO 2 issues Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future Technical options to reduce demand Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management Conclusions 47 Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future

48. 48 How many people know what 9 (or 16) tonnes of CO 2 looks like? In UK ~5 hot air balloons per person per year. In Saudi Arabia ~ 9 hot air balloons On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. In Saudi Arabia it is 16 tonnes "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) Raising Awareness

49. 49 Raising Awareness A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles At Gaoan No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO 2. School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

50. Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault Additional CO 2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. Low Energy Lighting Installed 50

51. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK. Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour A secure, sustainable and cost effective future will require: Effective Awareness and Management to reduce demand Technical Solutions to reduce demand Innovation use of low carbon energy sources 51

52. 52 Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/cred.htm This presentation will be available from tomorrow at Conclusions and Reflections