1. Week #2 CT Survey

2. Survey Not scientific: – Sample size – Arrangement For reference only. Draw your own conclusions.

3. Question 1 Estimate (do not compute) the value of – Version 1: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8 – Version 2: 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x3 x2 x 1. Correct answer: 40,320 Result (average/median): – Version 1: 37,007/36,000 – Version 2: 66,254/40,000

4. Question 1 More scientific result (by Daniel Kahneneman): respondents forced to estimate because of time: – Version 1 (1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8): 512 – Version 2 (8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x3 x2 x 1): 2,250 Observations: – Underestimate – Anchor bias – Nearly everyone can give accurate results given enough time.

5. Questions 2 and 3 A study in anchor bias. Q2: last two digits in student id: potential anchor? Q3: How much are you willing to pay for a bottle of Vintage Xtrasmooth Merlot 2010? – Invented; no basis to evaluate. Low: Id ends from 0 to 33 Median: Id ends from 34 to 66 High: Id ends from 67 to 99 Average bid18.538.39.6 Median bid3,5355.5

6. Questions 2 and 3 More scientific studies: – Participants with higher last two digits of their SSN would submit bids of 60% to 120% higher than those with lower last two digits.

7. Question 4: Bat and Ball A bat and ball cost $1.10. The bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? _________ What is your answer?

8. Question 4 10 cents: – Intuitive, appealing and wrong. Correct answer: 5 cents Result: correct answer: 47%. Kind of question: nearly all correct given enough time and mindfulness.

9. Question 4 More scientific studies: Success rate at Harvard/Princeton < 50%. Success rate at some less selective universities < 20%.

10. Question 4 Two versions: – V1. Regular font – V2. Smaller and gray font difficult to read. V1 performs better or V2 performs better?

11. Question 4 V1 (average: 63%) V2 (average: 29%) More scientific studies: V2 significantly improves performance: sometimes from 30% to 90% in similar problems. – Cognitive strain forces mindfulness. – Comfort trap!

12. Question 5 Is the following logical argument valid? ______ All roses are flowers. Some flowers fade quickly. Therefore, some roses fade quickly.

13. Question 5 The argument is invalid. Result: 59% correct. Many ‘things’ are intuitive, appealing, and wrong.

14. Question 6 What is critical thinking? Thinking hard about something. Being analytical. Critical thinking means to analyse the problem from all possible perspectives and form a judgment about the problem. I do not know. Critical thinking is the best logical way to think, where you can make logical argument. The ability to examine a problem/question and provide an explanation and fairly accurate answer.

15. Question 6 Thinking of how to solve a problem. In depth thinking of a topic and surrounding topics and how they pertain (help or hinder) that topic. Critical thinking is systematically analyzing a problem and generating optimal solutions. Critical thinking is applying logical reasoning to situations to determine a conclusion.

16. Question 6 Grasping the question or problem with a complete understanding of the issue and then solving it completely (meeting requirements). A way to view a problem that is logically sound and based on evidence not personal bias. Critical thinking is a way to solve a problem or question in a different way of thinking which could require more or less thinking. Think within a certain time to solve a problem.

17. Question 6 Critical thinking is not taking anything at face value. You gather all facts and come to a conclusion based on your own examination. Thinking through problems. Logical analysis of a problem to find a solution. Assessing a problem tactically.

18. Question 6 Critical thinking is analyzing a problem or an issue in a multiple ways and choose the best suited option. Thinking in a new way rather than traditional approach. Being open minded and including other possibilities of a solution to a problem. The ability to think about a problem from all sides and make a conclusion that best fits the problem based on reasonability.

19. Question 6 Identify problem and approach solution from multiple angles. Think carefully. Using evidences or context to apply towards something. Critical thinking is a method of solving a prolbem using a set of steps to analyze the objective and form a solution. Thinking beyond a simple answer or solution, deep thinking into a question or scenario.

20. Question 6 Thinking logically in depth about a problem and trying to account for all angles. To think beyond what is explicitly stated or known. To combine different ideas to form a logical, sound solution.