1. Dr. Hans R. Herren President Millennium Institute Founder & Chairman of Biovision Foundation hh@millennium-institute.org hh@millennium-institute.org How Green can we make the “Green Economy”? Shaping the Future We Want How Green can we make the “Green Economy”? Shaping the Future We Want

2. 2013 年度 科技论文 科技论文

3. Overview 1.Green Economy? 2.Transforming agriculture and the Food System: from brown to green, why and 3.How: challenges and solutions for the needed transformation of global agriculture and food systems 4.Who and when

4. Green Economy? A green economy is one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities It can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive In a green economy, growth in income and employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services UNEP 2011

5. Green Economy? Recognizes the Value of, and Invests in, Natural Capital Is Central to Poverty Alleviation Creates Jobs and Enhances Social Equity Substitutes Renewable Energy and Low-carbon Technologies for Fossil Fuels Promotes Enhanced Resource and Energy Efficiency Delivers More Sustainable Urban Living and Low-carbon Mobility Grows Faster than a Brown Economy over Time, while Maintaining and Restoring Natural Capital

6. Green Economy: How does it relate to sustainable agriculture and food systems? Brown Green

7. Infoprojects FCP: Farmer Communication 842 million undernourished – 1.5 billion obese – 300 million diabetes type 2 cases, etc. => health problem The industrial food system uses 10 kcal to produce 1 (empty) => energy problem The conventional food system is a major part of the =>climate change problem Soil degradation, water shortages, biodiversity loss underlie food insecurity => natural resource problem Industrial agriculture has emptied the rural areas instead of providing quality jobs => social problems Business as usual is not an option! Brown agriculture and food systems as part of the problems

8. David Tilman et al. Science 2001 The main problems (too much external / non renewable inputs)

9. All agricultural soils show signs of degradation World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000) Understanding the consequences: Soil degradation

10. ….new problems –urbanization

11. Understanding the consequences: Land and biodiversity loss

12. Grain Unctad 2011 The main problems (too much GHG)

13. Source: Stern Review Understanding the consequences: Climate change

14. Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses -50%-15% 0% +35%+15% 2080

15. The main problems (too much GHG, less nutrients)

16. Gaiasoft Company Presentation | © Gaiasoft 2008 Reduced capacity of ecosystems to buffer from extreme events through loss of wetlands, forests, mangroves The main consequences (Natural and human systems failing under pressure)

17. The main problems (too much production, too much waste)

18. ….new problems

19. The main problems (too much production, too many externalities)

20. A fundamental shift in Agricultural Knowledge Science and Technology and => agri-food system policies (UNSG), => institutions => capacity development => investments (UNCTAD) Paradigm change: transition to sustainable / ecological agriculture addressing the multi-functionality and resilience needs of small-scale and family farmers (eco-intensification, vs smart) Need to use a systemic and holistic approach / National multistakeholder assessments (IAASTD) 20 The main solutions to go “Green”

21. The 3 +1 dimensions of sustainable development Sustainable & Resilient viable livable equitable EnvironmentEconomic Social Governance

22. Sustainable Un-sustainable Low productivity High productivity The main solutions: 1. Paradigm shift / all inclusive

23. …..and also changing the unsustainable/unhealthy consumption patterns (paradigm shift at home) Barilla, 2011

24. Global Warming Energy Sector Human Populatio n Food Production Fresh Water Migration Health Catastrophes Land Loss & Flooding The main solutions: 2. System’s approach to problem analysis and solving)

25. Organic Conventional In 1995 –drought year The main solutions: 3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (it’s the soil stupid!)

26. The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / agronomic practices SRI

27. The main solutions: 3 b: Beating the biotic stresses (pests, weeds and soil fertility )

28. The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses biological / natural pest and disease control

29. The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses ? GMOs?

30. The main solutions: 3b. beating the biotic stresses with less genetic diversity?

31. Improve, expand extension services and capacity bldg Strengthen Institutions Emphasize local solutions The main Solutions: 4. beating the biotic stresses through R&D & Edu

32. Global investments across sectors (2% of GDP, Stern report); 0.16% of GDP (141 Bn $/year) invested in agriculture for: - Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pest management with bio-products, IPM) - Ag management practices (cover transition costs from till to no till, organic, agroecological agriculture, training, access to small scale mechanization and irrigation) - R&D (research in soil biology and agronomy, crop improvement (orphan crops), appropriate mechanization, irrigation, and more) - Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas, efficient processing, marketing, less waste) A systems model for the transition: scenarios from the UNEP GER ag chapter 2011 Is such a transition possible and how?

33. … the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050 IndicatorUnitBaselineGreenBAU Agricultural production Bn US$/year1’9212’8522’559 CropsBn US$/year629 996 913 EmploymentM people1’0751’7031’656 Soil qualityDmnl0.921.030.73 Water useKm 3 / year3‘3893‘2074‘878 LandBn ha1.21.261.31 DeforestationM ha/ year16715 Calories for consumption Kcal/person/d ay 2‘0812‘5242‘476 Source: UNEP Green Economy Report (2011) Investing 0.2% of total GDP ($141 Billion) / year

34. .. the numbers: we can win-win-win by 2050

35. Few enabling conditions for a Green Economy establish sound regulatory frameworks; prioritize government investment and spending in areas that stimulate the greening of economic sectors; limit spending in areas that deplete natural capital; employ taxes and market-based instruments to shift consumer preferences and promote green investment and innovation; invest in capacity building and training; and strengthen international governance.

36. §115 „We reaffirm the important work and inclusive nature of the Committee on World Food Security, including through its role in facilitating country-initiated assessments on sustainable food production and food security“ Changing course in global agriculture: «The Future We Want» (Rio+20 Declaration) recognized the fact that «a significant portion of the world’s poor live in rural areas» the role that agriculture plays in development the importance and utility of a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); and reaffirmed the necessity to promote, enhance and support more sustainable agriculture

37. Implementing the CCGA Multi-stakeholder Assessments (KEN/SEN/ETH)

38. New policies National assessments of agriculture and food systems international Committee on World Food Security (CFS) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Changing course of global agriculture national

39. Helping hand in the transformation: the consumers

40. Thank you! Thank you www.millennium-institute.org hh@.millennium-institute.org The time to act is now….and please in the right direction. We have the evidence, the solutions and the means……