1. Major challenges in the food system impacting ACP countries Hans R Herren President Millennium Institute www.millennium-institute.org Co-Chair IAASTD Geopolitics of Food: implications for ACP countries Wednesday 2nd February 2011 Wednesday, February 2, 2011 Brussels Policy Briefing n° 21

2. IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG) The 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition: Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty Improving Rural Livelihoods Improving Nutrition and Human Health Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and Economically Sustainable Development …under the Challenges of: Climate Change Population and Demand Growth Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy ….to which agriculture itself is contributing negatively The IAASTD IAASTD….more info @ www.agassessment.org

3. Human condition need for quality and quantity of nutrition not met and increasing One billion hungry & one billion obese 1.5 billion jobless people Humanity will grow to nearly 9 billion by 2050 Rising affluence brings diet demands for more meat, dairy & fish Greatest population growth in the tropics where CC impact is expected to be worst, environment difficult or at limit Today’s total food production sufficient for 9 billion people, but: – Wrong place – Access issues (poverty – hunger nexus) – Post harvest losses >30% – Significant retail and home losses Why a new paradigm? (social/economic)

4. Agriculture’s environmental impacts are substantial and are getting worse –Not sustainable High external input conventional farming has high GHG emissions (14%) Low input, traditional farming lower yields driving deforestation (18%) Both farming systems lack adequate CC stress resilience & both are inefficient in their natural resource use Water pollution by fertilizer/pesticide runoff and soil erosion Why a new paradigm? (environment)

5. Business as usual is not an option Why a new paradigm? Move from NR exploitation to management

6. Business as usual is not an option Why a new paradigm? Provide for food security and sovereignty 2010 food risk map (Maplecroft)

7. TRENDS IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE 1950s – 1970s Productivity Production Production crops livestock Indebtedness Indebtedness Rural employment Terms of trade labor farmers Net farm income Environmental degradation Role in the economy Source Richard Gawden 2010)

8. Forest land Natural crop yield per ha Agriculture production Soil quality Effective crop yield per ha Populatio n Harvested area Water stress GDP Chemical fertilizer Organic fertilizer Agriculture capital Energy demand Fertilizer use Water demand R&D Sustainabl e mgmt. Crop losses Oil price Agricultur e labor What new paradigm? Interconnectedness

9. What new paradigm? Multifunctionality

10. Transition to sustainable / organic / ecological / resilient / equitable agriculture SustainableUn-sustainable Low productivity High productivity

11. Invest in agricultural R&D in ACP countries (IPG) that benefit small farmers / women especially (participatory) Soil sciences Plant physiology and ecology Plant health (Insect, diseases, etc / pre and post harvest) Plant / animal breeding Plant / animal diversity, orphan species Agroforestry Water management Biotechnology (tissue culture, marker assisted breeding) Farm mechanization Aquaculture How to transform / transition agriculture?

12. Public / private agricultural R&D spending year 2000

13. Total Agricultural Output 1970-2004 (1974 = 100)

14. Reducing Post Harvest Losses are as Important as Increasing Yields 30% of harvested crops are lost to spoilage and pest damage and never reach consumers Improving post harvest storage & handling capabilities for immediate benefits Supporting appropriate value added food processing in rural areas also reduces losses and creates jobs Parallel investment needed to improve market access infrastructures How to transform / transition agriculture:

16. Ecological Agriculture provides the best prospects for sustainability –more of what works Uses organic nutrient and N-fixing crop rotations to restore soil fertility (Microorganism mediated nutrient mobilization) Organic matter & crop residue build soil carbon EA reduces use of fossil fuels & agrochemicals and GHG emissions EA sequesters carbon (neutral / positive impact on CC) EA improves yields by 70% vs traditional farming How to transform / transition agriculture:

17. Organic Conventional What new paradigm? Organic agriculture Organic bananas in the Dominican Republic In 1995 –drought year

18. What new paradigm? Push-Pull Organic maize in Kenya

19. Appropriate scaled mechanization for small farmers and cooperatives Financing for farmers to buy mechanized ag equipment to improve labor productivity R&D for No Till equipment; and incentives for domestic marketing/tech support supply chain Local production of biofuels & power to enable use of mechanized systems How to transform agriculture:

20. EA is knowledge intensive: need for human and social capital development Improve and expand extension services and farmer field schools to train and demonstrate EA practices and values Introduce capacity building for cooperatives to enable locally owned and operated input and output firms Increase higher education for implementation of EA Agriculture is very localized = regional and local solutions How to transform agriculture (Institution building)

21. Improving small farmer access to local, urban and foreign markets Improving food safety quality control (compliance with organic, fare trade, Global Gap and other certification standards) How to transform agriculture: (Trade and markets) Essential policy Actions to stimulate transition to EA Remove perverse subsidies (fossil fuels, commodity crops, power, etc…) Account for externalities (reward positive externalities) Introduce support for transition to EA Allow countries to implement trade policies that protect local farmers

22. Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / year 2011-2050 (green economy report UNEP/Millennium Institute Agriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report –February 2011)

23. You cannot solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. A Einstein Thank you for your attention