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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014

2 World Wheat Production April 9, 2014 2

3 World Wheat Supply and Use April 9, 2014 3

4 World Corn and Wheat Exports Trade Years* *Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June. Source: USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Grains:World Markets and Trade, March 10, 2014 April 9, 2014 4

5 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 5

6 World Rice Production April 9, 2014 6

7 World Rice Supply and Use April 9, 2014 7

8 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice April 9, 2014 8

9 World Corn Production April 9, 2014 9

10 Brazil CornUnit2012/132013/14 Change from last month (%) Change from last year (%) Prev. RecordYear Area Mil. ha 15.8*14.7NC-7%15.82012/13 Yield Tons/ha 5.16*4.903%-5%5.162012/13 Production Mil. tons 81.50*72.003%-12%81.502012/13 * Indicates a record Brazil 2013/14 Corn Summary April 2014 April 9, 2014 10

11 Brazil Corn: First-season compared to Second-season First-season Corn  Planting began in September 2013.  Area down 0.4 Mha from last year.  Crop is harvested.  Some damage from heat and drought.  Corn production used by livestock industry. Second-season Corn  Planting began in Feb. 2014.  High cost of production and low prices result in unprofitability.  Area down 0.7 Mha from last year.  Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential.  Corn production for export market. April 9, 2014 11

12 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 2013/14 Average Mar 30: 82% vegetative 14% flowering 3% filling 92% Good / 1% Poor Since Last Meeting 2 nd Corn (DERAL) 2012/13 99% Planted April 9, 2014 12

13 1 2 3 April 9, 2014 13

14 3. Toledo, Parana, Brazil  Satellite-derived vegetation health indicates conditions for 2013/14 (RED) are similar to 2012/13 season (YELLOW) for corn in Parana.  Corn yields are forecast similar to last year’s 4.83 tons per hectare. Critical flowering and grainfill stages for second- crop corn are expected in late April and early May. Second-crop corn April 9, 2014 14

15 South Africa’s Grain Basket Approximately 50% of production is divided between east and west. West: Lower yields & greater corn area East: Higher yields & less corn area North West Free State Mpumalanga Gautang April 9, 2014 15

16 Lower Yields in the West Lower yields in the west due to lower rainfall and low plant density from wide row spacings (>1.5-meters). April 9, 2014 16

17 Source: FEWSNET/USGS Africa: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/africa/index.php Global: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/global/index.php Monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) Anomaly Derived from Thermal Band on MODIS sensor Percent of Average (2001-2010) Dec, 2013Jan, 2014 Feb, 2014 Mar, 2014 April 9, 2014 17

18 2013/14 2012/13 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Average April 9, 2014 18

19 North West Province: MODIS-NDVI Time Series Source: USDA/NASA GLAM Project http://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/ April 9, 2014 19

20 Latest trend is to install center pivots (CP) with smaller diameters. April 9, 2014 20

21 World Corn Supply and Use April 9, 2014 21

22 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 22

23 World Soybean Production April 9, 2014 23

24 Brazil SoybeanUnit2012/132013/14 Change from last month (%) Change from last year (%) Prev. RecordYear Area Mil. ha 27.7029.90*1%8%27.702012/13 Yield Tons/ha 2.962.93-4%-1%3.112010/11 Production Mil. tons 82.0087.50*-1%7%82.002012/13 * Indicates a record Brazil 2013/14 Soybean Summary April 2014 April 9, 2014 24

25 Hot and dry in early February 2014. About 40 percent of production. April 9, 2014 25

26 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 26

27 World Cotton Production April 9, 2014 27

28 World Cotton Supply and Use April 9, 2014 28

29 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 29

30 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 30

31 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 31

32 U.S. Meat Production and Prices April 9, 2014 32

33 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds April 9, 2014 33

34 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand April 9, 2014 34

35 U.S. Dairy Product Prices April 9, 2014 35

36 U.S. Production Summary April 9, 2014 36

37 Domestic Demand Summary April 9, 2014 37

38 U.S. Export Summary April 9, 2014 38

39 Price Summary April 9, 2014 39

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