1. The Conventions and the Campaign 3/7/2013

2. Clearly Stated Learning Objectives Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the presidential nominating system in the context of the 2012 election

3. Office Hours Today 11-2 10-11 on Friday

4. REFORMING THE NOMINATING SYSTEM

5. The Major impact of the Modern Primary Vastly diminished role for party elites Potential for unacceptable candidates Greater reliance on horse race coverage

6. Reforms: A Regional Primary Advantages Disadvantages

7. Reforms: A National Primary Advantages Disadvantages

8. Reforms: The Status Quo The Parties are risk-averse States like their privileged position Front-loading has made a de facto national primary

9. The Three Periods of the Campaign The Summer The Conventions to the First Debate The Final Month

10. SUMMER TO THE CONVENTIONS First Period

11. ETCH-A-SKETCH

12. What the Primaries Did to Romney All “Unromneys were to his political right In 2008, he was beaten from the right He became “severely conservative”

13. Romney moved Right on Immigration Abortion Health Care

14. “Everything changes,” “It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can try to shake it up and start all over again.”

15. Romney’s real Problem He is Broke He cannot Tap into money until after the nomination Obama has Plenty of stored up cash.

16. OBAMA IN THE SUMMER

17. 2012 was no 2008 2008 He had faced the Clinton War Machine There was a sense of something historic A message of Hope and Change 2012 Not as ambitious or inspiring Facing a bad economy that he was supposed to fix Facing the real possibility of being outspent

18. The Economy FDR is the only one with a worse economy to win Bush I loses with a better economy Carter is crushed in 1980

19. OBAMA’S WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

20. The Window The time between the primary and the convention Do not let Romney grab the center Make him a conservative with an empty core

21. Framing Romney Two Things – Rich – Mormon Frame him early

22. Develop a Narrative against Romney A Rich Guy who didn’t play by the Rules Out of touch Flip-Floper and Bain

23. Romney as Out of Touch Doesn’t Care about average Citizens The Actual Quote On Cnn

24. Attack Bain Capital “If Mitt Romney Wins, the Middle Class Loses” Most People Do not know about Bain It did have some drawbacks

25. Attack The Tax Return First response is dismissive shifty Romney pays 15.4% on 250 million Romney had 5 years to get this in order

26. How to Work the Message Go negative Spend a lot ($10 Million) The Rich Guy Image Sticks.

27. The National Convention Not much fun anymore

28. The Old Convention The Political Opium Den The Role of Party Bosses The Excitement of an unknown nominee These Days are over

29. The Goals of the Modern Convention 1.Nominate a candidate 2.Selecting a Vice-President 3.Introducing the Nominee to the People We know these things Already

30. The Conventions are no longer fun for Television We used to get gavel- to-gavel coverage Huge Audiences Hardly anyone watches them anymore

31. What the Media Wants A Brokered Convention Gloom, doom, drama They took their ball and went home

32. What the Parties Want The convention as Infotainment Gavel-to-Gavel advertisement

33. SCRIPTING THE CONVENTION AS THEATRE

34. The Democratic Convention The Location The Goal

35. The Republican Convention Location Reason

36. Making it Work Selection and Timing Of Speakers Timing of the Convention itself (backloading)