1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Potential Risk Reduction In Asia 3 rd Steering Committee Meeting COSCAP-NA, Sanya, China 2-3 June 2004

2. Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government * Representing GE and RR ** Observer DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

3. Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented (),  Accident Risk Reduction = General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention

4. Process Example - Values Used are Hypothetical.41 Intervention not effective on accident (.52x.797) Output to Strategy 1 Accident Prevention Portion of Accident that would have been eliminated by Interventions =.59 Intervention is effective (1-.41) Other Inter- ventions.52 Probability that EGPWS will not be effective EGPWS CFIT Training Aid Airplane does not have EGPWS installed (1-installed portion).4=1-.6 40% of Fleet Airplane has EGPWS installed but it is not effective. (portion with EGPWS x (1-effectiveness)).12=.6(1-.80) 60% Fleet Incorporation 80% Effective.697=.9(1-.226) Airplane does not have Inter #2 installed (1-installed portion) Airplane has Inter #2 installed but it is not effective. (portion with Inter #2 x (1-effectiveness)).1.797 4

5. Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents and Proposed Safety Enhancements

6. Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. * 2003 Preliminary Information United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Europe 0.7 China 0.5 Middle East 3.1 Africa 13.3 Asia 1.7 World 1.0 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 27 May 2004 -KLO CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction JSSI 35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + ASET Just forming up COSCAP’s Asia 12 SEs on plan 60% reduction COSCAP CIS Just starting