1. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 1 An Integrative Research Project on the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin Wolfram Mauser Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich

2. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 2 GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) Project Duration: 2001 - 2010 Funded by:

3. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 3 Goals of GLOWA-Danube How will Global Change climate change changing demography economic change affect the water ressources of the Upper Danube during the next 50 years? Answer: What are regionally suitable (effective and efficient) adaptation strategies? For that purpose: develop adequate instruments: Scientific simulation tools Analysis and translation of results Stakeholder dialogue Upper Danube Basin: Area: 77.000 km² Population: 11.5 Mio. Elevation Gradient: 3.700 m

4. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 4 The Regional Adaptation Evaluation Tool DANUBIA DANUBIA: developed as tool for investigations of future scenarios all important interactions included – nature and society structured and iterative dialog with stakeholder

5. 17.-19. February GCI Workshop Bonn 5 Stakeholder dialog in GLOWA-Danube 275 stakeholders are regularely informed about the results 130 stakeholder are actively involved in the dialog (bilateral or in workshops ) 6 round-table workshops were organized for decision makers from the sectors water management, administration, water supply, energy, farming and forestry (also in Austria) Stakeholder: decision makers from policy, economy, and administration [Bavarian State Ministry of Environment, Public Health and Consumer Protection; Bavarian State Office of Environment (LfU); Verbund-Austrian Hydro Power, E.ON…] moderated by: 20.4.20105 EU Strategies for the Danube River

6. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 6 Validation: 30 years of hourly modelling Gauge Achleiten 1971 - 2000 DANUBIA validation: 2 factors for trust in reliability of model simulations no calibration using measured discharges validation over full historical climate period (30 years)

7. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 7 Climate change: What is likely to happen? Basic assumption: emissions will follow the IPCC A1B scenario Extrapolation of 1960-2006 REMO-A1B regional IPCC-A1B regional MM5-A1B regional considered uncertainty in temperature development

8. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 -4161116212631364146 Week Precipitation Change [%] 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 8 REMO-A1B regional MM5-A1B regional IPCC-A1B regional Extrapolation aus 1960-2006 Uncertainties of climate development in the Upper Danube until 2100:  T + 3.3 to + 5.2 °C  P -16.4 to -3.5% stochastic climate generator KLIMAGEN Climate drivers for DANUBIA Climate change: What is likely to happen (1990-2100)? considered uncertainty in rainfall developemnt

9. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 9 Changes in water availability Comparison of 2036-2060 with 1971-2000 (scenario REMO regional – Baseline)  Decrease of 5 to 35% Δ -77mm  Decrease of 3.5 to 16.4% Δ -55mm Δ +47mm Precipitation Discharge Evapotranspiration  Increase of 10 to 25%  less water will be available in the future  less water will be stored (vanishing glaciers, less snow, decreasing ground water levels)

10. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 10 Changes in water availability - precipitation  Significant decrease of snow precipitation Development of annual rainfall and snow fraction for climate trends IPCC regional, REMO regional, MM5-regional and Extrapolation

11. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 11 today: 1450 m³/s Change in downstream water export – today vs. 2060 2060: 1000..1300 m³/s  Reduction of downstrem water export by 5 to 35%

12. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 12 Changes in water export dynamics - discharge  Shift of peak flow from summer to spring  Distinct low flow in Summer  Change of runoff regime Gauge Achleiten Monthly decadal value (scenario REMO regional – Baseline)

13. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 13 Consequences for the low flow Achleiten: Development of 50-years annual average 7-days low-flow (NM7Q50)  Decrease of low flow of 25 to 53%  Restrictions to navigation Minimum simulated StandardDev Ensemble Maximum simulated

14. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 14 (2011-2035)/(1971-2000) (2036-2060)/(1971-2000) NM7Q 50 Upper Danube (scenario REMO regional – Baseline) only channel selected with r² > 0.8  Decrease of low flow discharge in the lowlands  Increase of low flow discharge in the alps Changes in low flow

15. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 15 (2011-2035)/(1971-2000) (2036-2060)/(1971-2000) 100-years flood Upper Danube, mean of all 16 statistical climate variants Changes in peak flow  Increase of peak flow in the head watersheds of the Alps  Little changes in the lowlands only channel selected with r² > 0.8

16. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 16  Reduction of hydropower production of 10 to 16%  Possible compensation of losses through 2-3% increase in efficiency per decade Consequences for hydropower production Extrapolation Annual Power [GWh / a] Trend uncertainty Installed hydropower capacity < 5 MW UpperDanube

17. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 17 Conclusions Key messages Water in the Upper Danube basin will be scarcer but not scarce Reduced discharge of 5 to 35% Change of runoff regime with shift of peak flow from summer to spring Strong to very strong decrease of low flows in Achleiten of 25 to 53% (in contrast: increase in the alpine valley) No consistent results for flood flows, mostly little changes Increased agricultural productivity, need for irrigation to prevent water stress Consequences Reduction of hydropower production of 10 to 16% Reduction of cooling capacities Restriction of navigation Moderate to significant decrease in water delivery of 5 to 35% at gauge Achleiten to the downstream countries Increased agricultural yields

18. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 18 Transfer to Po? Discharge to Downstream? Transfer to Elbe? Transfer to Rhein/Main Climate Change will lead to adaptations in the water in the Upper Danube: Energy (hydropower – cooling) Transportation - Navigation Tourism Agriculture Neighbours are affected! How can we adapt to climate change within Europe in a coordinated manner? How can we use EU waters better through trans-watershed management? Which solutions maximize oveall sustainability under conditions of climate change? Water scarcer but not scarce! Conclusion Upper Danube – Water scarcer but not scarce!

19. 20.4.2010 EU Strategies for the Danube River 19 Thanks for your attention! (Ch. Michelbach) www.glowa-danube.de