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GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Dan B ă lteanu Institute of Geography.

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Presentation on theme: "GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Dan B ă lteanu Institute of Geography."— Presentation transcript:

1 GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Dan B ă lteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy, ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE Wolfram Mauser Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich February 18, 2013

2 Pillars of the Danube Strategy: 1.Connectivity 2.Environmental protection 3.Economic development 4.Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc (103-105 AD), Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001

3 Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin - Past, present, future - Main purpose: – To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube Basin within a global change perspective – To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to respond to the challenges of a changing environment – To build a product responsive to the local, national and regional stakeholders requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy – To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community – To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts

4 Global environmental change- Climate change - Environmental risks - Land use / Land cover change - Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human security Regional impacts of global environmental change - Extreme events and natural hazards - Agriculture and forestry - Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption - Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity - Transport Social and Economic Adaptation strategies - System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators) - Regional adaptive capacity to global change - Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactions - Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factor Equity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainability - Food security - (Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users - New technologies and innovation - Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communities - decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists, -cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability Keywords of the Atlas

5 INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools

6 It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future. Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY

7 Inhalt E Einleitende Beiträge 1 Natur- und Sozialraum 2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle 3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse Impressum Glossar Prof. W. Mauser – coordinator University of Munchen

8 Upper Danube Atlas Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube

9 Upper Danube Atlas Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA

10 SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT CLAVIER CLAVIER APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY: Economic Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Economic Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity) High Regional Adaptive Capacity reduces Regional Vulnerability exposure and sensitivity indicators The analysis is based on a series of exposure and sensitivity indicators relevant in determining the adaptive capacity of a region to climate change Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007 CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change

11 ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGY -Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA - 8 clusters at NUTS III level - EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)

12 ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS

13 enviroGRIDS

14 13 Nov 2012 – IIASA IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop - Significance for Romanian Researches Dan Bălteanu

15 PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS - The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region; - The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives; - The GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Regions countries and will support bottom-up initiatives. - The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.


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