Presentation on theme: "Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy,"— Presentation transcript:
1 Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy, ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCEGLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSWolfram MauserLudwig-Maximilians University, MunichDan BălteanuInstitute of GeographyRomanian Academy,February 18, 2013
2 Pillars of the Danube Strategy: Connectivity Environmental protection Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc ( AD),Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001Pillars of the Danube Strategy:ConnectivityEnvironmental protectionEconomic developmentStrengthening the governance within the Danube Region
3 Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin - Past, present, future - Main purpose:To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube Basin within a global change perspectiveTo be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to respond to the challenges of a changing environmentTo build a product responsive to the local, national and regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the StrategyTo clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian communityTo identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts
4 Keywords of the Atlas Global environmental change Climate change Environmental risksLand use / Land cover changeHuman Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human securityRegional impacts of global environmental change- Extreme events and natural hazards- Agriculture and forestryWater resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumptionSummer and winter tourism and cultural identityTransportSocial and Economic Adaptation strategiesSystem of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators)Regional adaptive capacity to global changeSimulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactionsThree-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factorEquity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainabilityFood security(Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream usersNew technologies and innovationSustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communitiesdecentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists,cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability
5 INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategiesMethodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools
6 INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future.Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses
7 E Einleitende Beiträge 1 Natur- und Sozialraum InhaltE Einleitende Beiträge1 Natur- und Sozialraum2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle3 Szenarien und ErgebnisseImpressumGlossarProf. W. Mauser – coordinatorUniversity of Munchen
8 Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube Upper Danube AtlasAspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube
9 Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA Upper Danube AtlasModel of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA
10 SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT CLAVIER APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY:Economic Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Economic Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)High Regional Adaptive Capacity reduces Regional VulnerabilityThe analysis is based on a series of exposure and sensitivity indicators relevant in determining the adaptive capacity of a region to climate changeSource: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change
11 ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGY Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA8 clusters at NUTS III levelEUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)
13 enviroGRIDStry to summarize the project through a relatively complex graph.Observational data exists in many international and national organizations and these organizations started making available the important information through the GEO System of Systems (GEOSS)More observational data is exist in regional database. This data should also be made available to the scientific community through GEOSSA lot of environmental and remote sensing data will be soon stored on the GRID and will also be reachable through GEOOnce this data is visible and hopefully available, it can be much more easily used by important organization such as the Black Sea Commission (BSC) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) to analyze it and communicate to the public and decision makers about the state of the Black Sea and the Danube river.A clearing house will be created specially for the Black Sea Catchment to fin more rapidly what data existAll this information will nourish the Observation Systems that we will develop to communicate with decision makers and the public through several media.1313
14 IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop - Significance for Romanian ResearchesDan Bălteanu13 Nov 2012 – IIASA
15 PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region;The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives;The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives.The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.
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