1. Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication to the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
Ministry of Environment Protection
Valentina Kryukova
Bonn, 2009

2. Key challenges Uncertainty of Kazakhstan’s status in UNFCCC
Capacity building of experts dealing with modeling and scenario simulation for vulnerability assessment, adaptation and mitigation.
Barriers to get relevant data
Lack of research on climate change impact to water resources
Achieve balance between the energy sector and the environment protection

3. The linear coefficient of temperature trend of the surface air on the average annual (a), winter (b), and summer (c) for the period of 1936 – 2005 А
The average annual temperature increased:
by 0.31 C /10 years ;
by 0.50 C/10  years – in winter;
by 0.21 C/10  years – in summer. Б В

4. The linear coefficient of the precipitation in annual, winter (a) and summer (b) periods (mms/10 years) for the periods 1936 – 2005.
There was no definite trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall on the territory of Kazakhstan a) b) c)

5. Climate change status: main conclusions
Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual temperature
Increase of climate aridity in deserts and semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as in adjacent areas.
Increase of total rainfall in the western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and in the central zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous parts of the South and South-East of the country. However this had less impact on raising air temperatures.
Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0.8% in South-East mountains and 1% in glacier storage.

6. Change of annual temperature and precipitation in Kazakhstan with change of GHG concentration according to different scenarios
temperature
average P strict А1F mild B1
+1,4 С up to 2030; 1,21,9 ºС (1,3 ) 1,52,2 ºС (1,7 )
+2,7 С to 2050; ,54,0 ºС (3,0 ) 1,62,6 ºС (2,0 )
+4,6 С to ,7 to 8,0 ºС (6,2) 3,13,4 ºС (3,3)
precipitations
average P strict А1F1
2% to 2030, up to 8 % (2,2 %)
by 4% to to plus 15 % (3,7 %)
by 5% to to 28 % (6,5 %)
mild B1
to ‑8 % (3,0 %),
to 2050 minus 3 to plus 9 % (1,7 %)
to 2085 minus 2 to plus 13 % (4,1 %)

7. The complex impact of the surface air temperature and precipitation intensity can lead to shifting northward the borders of humidification zones.
Increase in rainfall, even by 20–25%, will not have a favorable impact on the ecosystems, agriculture and water resources..
, А1F1
The complex influence of the temperature and the amount of the falls may lead to the shift of wet zonal borders to the North (to km by 2085).

8. Expected climate change: main conclusions
Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures
Increase of precipitation in the winter period
Increase of the annual amount of precipitations.
Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since 2050.
On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of precipitations does not compensate increase of air temperature.
All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to increase of aridity.

9. The potential impact of the climate change
Water Resources
will increase on the average from 1 – 4 % to % in mountain areas
will decrease by % in the plain areas
The degradation of the mountains glaciations and its impact on the resources of the river flow in the basin of the Lake Balkhash

10. Potential impact of climate change
Agriculture
Grain production
will be unfavorable for growing spring wheat in the northern part of Kazakhstan
Yield productivity I will decrease in the central, eastern parts by 25–60 %, in the northern part by 70 – 90% versus the mean perennial values
Pastures
Change in structure, composition and decrease in biodiversity.
Decrease in soil biomass by 30-60 %.
Cattle breeding

11. Needs for adaptation measures
To improve standards and legislation, to develop a strategy for reducing GHG emissions and increasing sinks.
To streamline climate change issues into Sectoral Programs and Strategies.
To improve the network of systematic surveys, a forecasting system, modeling and early emergency information.
To enhance research on climate change impact and its consequences to water resources, populations health and the economy.
To increase awareness on climate change issues and measures needed for decision makers, business and public.

12. Total GHG emissions in Kazakhstan, Tg CO2-equivalent
GHG Sources/sinks
1992
1994
1998
2000
2004
2005
Energy
280
261
128
138
185
197
Fuel combustion
246
236
113
119
164
176
Fugitive emissions 34 25 15 19 21 23
Industrial processes 7 11 14
Agriculture 46 16 17
LULUCF -7 -5 -6
Waste 5 6 8
Total emissions
345
308
156
172
228
243
Net emissions
338
303
151
165
221
237
A primary source of GHG emissions is energy (fuel combustion) amounting for 72% in The second contributor is agriculture, the proportion of which has reduced from 15% in 1990 to 9% in In 2005 fugitive emissions contributed around 9% of Kazakhstan’s total emissions. Industrial processes contributed 6% and the proportion of waste was 3%. Absorption by LULUCF amounted 2.5 %.

13. Direct GHG emissions without sinks, Gg т СО2-eqv
In 2005, Kazakhstan’s CO2 emissions, without carbon absorption by forests, were 195.0 Tg – this is almost 80% of the national total. The share of methane was around 16%, and nitrogen oxide was about 5%. The main sources of methane were fugitive emissions and agriculture, and 95% of N2O emissions were by agriculture

14. GHG emissions from «Energy: fuel combustion» by main sources, Gg CO2-eqv.
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
Other
Energy activity is the main source of anthropogenic GHG emissions in Kazakhstan. The greatest contribution to the emissions from energy category (88%) was made by the fossil fuel combustion that amounted to 175.7 Tg CO2-equivalent of emissions.

15. Dynamics of fugitive CH4 and CO2 emissions, Gg of CO2-equivalent.
The category of fugitive emissions is the largest source of СН4 emission. It is also the second largest contributor to the total national GHG emissions at 8.7 % in 2005.

16. СН4 and N2O emissions from agriculture in Kazakhstan, Gg СО2-eqv.
The agriculture sector is the third largest contributor to the total national GHG emissions. In 2005 the proportion of emissions from this category was 9.4% of total national GHG emissions

17. Policy and measures on CC mitigation
Key documents relating to Kazakhstan’s environmental policy are:
Country Development Strategy to 2030;
The Transition Concept to Sustainable Development for 2007 – 2024;
The Industrial and Innovation Development Strategy to 2015;
The Ecological Security Concept for 2004 – 2015;
Updated “Indicative Plan for socio and economic development for 2002 – 2005” with perspective for 2010 – 2015;
The Government Program for ;
The Government Transport Strategy for 2015 (April 2006);
The Ecological Code (adopted in January 2007);
The Desertification Combat Program for 2005 – 2015;
The Government Program on energy efficiency and renewable resources use for sustainable development to 2024.

18. Dynamics of total CO2 emissions under the various scenarios of economy development of RK
The СО2 emission scenarios were built using the MARKAL model.

19. The GHG emissions reduction potential from the main economy sectors by the strategic development and plans, effective technologies application, mln. t СО2
Branches/scenarios
Years
Energy sector
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Base scenario
122,8
139,0
153,1
162,5
183,1
The efficient growth of current and new power stations using effective technologies
119,0
126,5
132,8
131,1
138,3
Transport sector
17,1
22,3
29,2
36,5
44,9
Introduction of “Euro 2 - 4” standards
20,7
24,5
27,4
30,1
Oil and gas sector
23,1
25,6
29,4 31 41
Use of the effective, environmentally clean technologies
22,4
24,4
26,7
28,9
36,0
The total GHG emissions in the base scenario
188,8
215,2
242,5
264
306,03
The total GHG emissions using more effective technologies
183
197,6
211,4
216,1
234,1
The total GHG emissions (potential) applying effective technologies and mitigation measures
5,83
17,55
31,57
47,93
71,98

20. Recomendations
That could be useful for other countries in the process of preparation of their SNC
Establishment of national system for GHG emissions inventory
Capacity building on modeling and scenarios simulation and interpretation
Participation in workshops, trainings, international meetings
Awareness raising on climate change issues to decision makers and business and public
Preparation for TNC

21. Thank you for your attention!