1. Combating terrorism: Introducing discussion at a Freshman Seminar Richard Wilson Harvard University November 8 th 2006

2. Originally presented at conferences: C hatham House UK December 2001 Global Foundation, Miami, FL December 2001 Probabilistic Safety and Management (PSAMS) Puerto Rico June 2002 Planetary Emergencies Erice,Sicily August 2002 Biological Terrorism (BTR3) Alburquerque March 2003

3. First task: Define the problem. Be very careful about DEFINITIONS Are we all talking about the same subject? Next task: break it into manageable component parts factorizable as much as possible

4. Bush's Prescription to stop terrorism “Get the guy who did this” But in a suicide attack he is dead. How do you find the planner? Who is a terrorist? When is a man a terrorist and when is he a freedom fighter? Is a terrorist a coward?

5. Did September 11 th 2001 (4000 people killed) change the world? Not mine by much. The Rape of Nanking killed 300,000 civilians (1938) The UK air raid on Dresden 300,000 civilians (1944) (but it was the first in America)

6. Globalization and its Consequences Globalization seems inevitable. Consequence of scientific breakthroughs (1) Communication technology (2) Biology (genome) (3) in physics. We cannot say: Stop the world I want to get off !

7. I have few conclusions but many questions to answer. We must address disagreements

8. Bush Called Osame Bin Laden EVIL Does he compare with: Adolf Hitler? Emperor Hirohito? Saddam Hussein? “ There are a lot of bright people in the world Can’t one of them find a way of getting rid of that man?”

9. Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795) Several notables are believed to be more or less implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905) Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866) some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition (1805)

10. Note that OED starts with STATE TERROR and onlly later INDIVIDUAL or NON-STATE TERRORISTS. What did President Bush mean in 2001?

11. Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists? even though they were the legitimate government of Germany, originally elected by the people? And Hitler was the most popular leader in Europe (among his people) in 1938? Were opponents of Hitler terrorists? Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

12. Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although the legitimate government? Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916? Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens? Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland terrorists? Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

13. Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia) or are the radical Chechens guilty of terrorism against Russia? Or both? Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

14. Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting terrorists? Timothy McVeigh thought the former Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the French had experienced in 1795? It used to be “patriotic” to say the former. Now it is “politically correct” to imply the latter. Is this because the Indians have been subjugated for over a century?

15. Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed the government of Batista? What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?

16. In the British -American system dissent has been tolerated for 300 years

17. "My Lords, if I were an American, as I am an Englishman, while a foreign troop was landed in my country I never would lay down my arms - never, never, never." I would not rest until the last foreign soldier had left my soil". William Pitt (the elder), Earl of Chatham, his last speech in Parliament

18. We must not duck the difficult questions but face them head on.

19. Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and particularly in its early days, aim to drive them into the sea?

20. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) A Rebellion is a Revolution which does not succeed (V. Weisskopf, 1958)

21. "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Gerry Adams?

22. "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Kashmiri Leader?

23. "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Yasser Arafat?

24. "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". NO!

25. "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Thomas Jefferson (1774) This got him elected to the Constitutional Congress in Philadelphia

26. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978 Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia May 1940, I learned unarmed combat. Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

27. 34 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist. Then he became a freedom fighter Within 6 months he was a statesman Now he works for the health of the poor. Dr Quasi Quamruzzaman did not change. He lives in Bangladesh.

28. The Planners and Financiers of Terrorism President Bush says he opposed the planners, and financiers, of terrorism. Those in NY and Boston who financed the IRA stopped in 2000 (after IRA terrorists brought into the government)

29. Civilian or Military Targets? Are they different? Must a civilian be unarmed? What about throwing stones? Even at worshippers? Does a military target justify Collateral damage? What about the terror of Mutually Assured Destruction

30. Cowardly acts Are "suicide bombers" "cowardly"? Japanese Kamikaze pilots? Colonel Claus von Stauffenburg in 1944? Pilots dropping bombs on a UN refugee camp? Suicide bomber in Tel Aviv?

31. Step 1 The root causes of Terrorism POVERTY per se IS NOT (Many Social Science studies) Frustration Failure to assimilate Fear No hope If there is hope and you kill a terrorist you have one terrorist less If there is no hope and you kill a terrorist you have 10 terrorists more (Israeli General)

32. Step 2. Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length Resolve major trouble spots before they fester Kashmir Israel - Palestine Alas we failed to capitalize on 2001 unanimity Mikhail Gorbachev urged use of UN set up in 1945 for such purposes but often bypassed by USA and USSR

33. Step 2 Keep Terrorists away from Sensitive Facilities USSR approach of closed cities Conflict with individual Liberties This is the step where US administration has concentrated efforts

34. Step 2A Keep weapons away from Terrorists Not easy for AK47s and Ammonium Nitrate ESSENTIAL for nuclear bombs

35. Imagine what a terrorist might do: and devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. Stop the event as early in the chain as possible (dont let trouble spots fester) Step 3. Event Tree nalysis

36. If estimated conseqences are small, the terrorist action is less likely and we gain twice!

37. Step 3. Making Society Safer Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner 1974) Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep Petroleum products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island) Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

38. “There is nothing that a terrorist can do that these clowns did not do on their own.” (Rasmussen 1979) BUT Look at the Low Probability High Consequence Accident - a terrorist can make it more probable

39. “A crucial defence against biological terrorism is to be prepared for natural outbreaks” (pandemics) Dr Barry Bloom, Dean HSPH and many others This suggests a funding priority

40. FIGHTING the LAST WAR...! Pilots would now resist a hijacking Bar cockpit doors Hidden switch to take control of plane to ground or automatic pilot (already suggested)

41. FIGHTING the LAST WAR (contd)...! FEMA and NIST reports Few plans for a major fire at WTC? Insulation not tested for durability Initial impact destroyed insulation and all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been foreseen!) Helicopter fire fighters? Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

42. NISTsays that building codes were NOT broken. What does this tell us about reliance on codes? Should we demand a risk analysis of all tall buildings before the Freedom Tower is built? (Building Industry resists)

43. Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high. (expensive but possible; e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

44. Anthrax scare easy Irradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co60 or Cs137) poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?

45. Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life. They will be with us until the end of the human race.

46. We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger. Car accidents: 45,000/yr vs. 3,500 once Drugs destroy society more Security vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

47. BUT Simple comparison of risks clearly inadequate. Effects of 9/11 vastly exceeded the quantitative costs: Death rate at $xxxx per life Rebuilding costs

48. “If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.” Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com