1. The Role of the Second Demographic Transition in Secularism's Evolutionary Demise Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London/ Harvard KSG Belfer Center Fellow e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

2. Demographic Transition Begins in Europe in late 18 th c. Spreads to much of the rest of the world in 20 th c TFR below 2.1 in most of East Asia, Brazil, Kerala, Tunisia, Iran… World TFR is just 2.55. UN predicts World TFR falling below replacement (2.33) during 2020-2050

3. Global Depopulation?: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008 Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008

4. Source: Goldstone 2007

5. World's Oldest Countries, 2000 and 2050 in 2000 in 2050 Source: Goldstone 2007

6. Second Demographic Transition Below Replacement fertility No sign of a rebound **Values, not material constraints, determine fertility (Lesthaeghe & Surkyn 1988; van de Kaa 1987)

7. Anabaptist Religious Isolates Hutterites: 400 in 1880; 50,000 today. Amish: 5000 in 1900; 230,000 today. Doubling time: 20-25 years. (i.e 4-5 million by 2100) Fertility has come down somewhat, but remains high: 4.7-6.2 family size Retention rate has increased from 70 pc among those born pre-1945 to over 90 pc for 1966-75 cohort

9. UK: A Tale of Two Cities: Salford v Leeds US: – American Jews have TFR of 1.43. In 2000-6 alone, Haredim increase from 7.2 to 9.4 pc of total. – Kiryas Joel, in Orange Co., New York, nearly triples in population to 18000 between 1990 and 2006

10. Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

11. Israel: Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Growth TFR of 6.49 in 1980-82 increasing to 7.61 in 1990-96; Other Israeli Jews decline 2.61 to 2.27 Proportion set to more than double, to 17% by 2020 Already 1/3 of Jewish primary school students (2012) No indication of major outflows Majority of Israeli Jews after 2050?

12. USA: 20 th c Rise of Evangelical Protestants Source: Hout at al. 2001

13. Religious Switching No Longer Favours Liberal Denominations

14. Source: Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2005

15. Ethnic Gap Declines, Religious Gap Widens Catholic-Protestant in US; now Muslim- Christian in Europe But religious intensity linked to higher fertility Europe: Religious have higher fertility (Adsera 2004; Regnier-Loilier 2008, etc) Conservative Muslim and Christian immigration to Europe Fertility Gap, Women Aged 40-60 (Children Ever Born) in GSS 1972-2006 Biblical LiteralistHomosexualityAbortion 1972-851.151.111.22 1986-961.211.161.28 1997-20061.251.211.38

16. IIASA, near Vienna

17. Austria: Projected Proportion Declaring ‘No Religion’ Assuming: Low secularization trend Constant secularization trend High secularization trend Austria, TFR 2001 Roman Catholics1.32 Protestants1.21 Muslims2.34 Others1.44 Without0.86 Total1.33

19. Similar Dynamics in USA

21. Islamism and Fertility ‘Our country has a lot of capacity. It has the capacity for many children to grow in it…Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.’ – Mahmoud Ahmadinedjad, 2006 ‘You people are supporting…the enemies of Islam and Muslims...Personnel were trained to distribute family planning pills. The aim of this project is to persuade the young girls to commit adultery’ – Taliban Council note to murdered family planning clinic employee, Kandahar, 2008

22. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt. Is Islam Different?

23. Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007 European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come?

24. Conclusion: Demographic Trends Conservative religion growing fastest in Israel/diaspora (change within a decade), major change by 2050 In the US and Europe, the change will take place slowly, over generations (major change after 2050) Muslim world: more like US/Europe. Conservative advantage should grow with modernization Driven by demography and retention

25. Did it Happen Before?: The Rise of Christianity 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. (Stark 1997) Cared for sick during regular plagues, lowering mortality Encouraged pro-family ethos (as opposed to pagans’ macho ethos), attracting female converts and raising fertility rate 40 percent growth per decade for 10 generations, same as Mormons in USA in past century Reached 'tipping point' and then became established in 312

26. Evolutionary Theory: Cultural Genes (individual), Memes (collective) 3 Memes of modernity create environment that favours secularism: Rationality, Individuality, Equality. All are double edged: – Liberty: toleration of illiberal groups as well as promoting self- autonomy – Equality: mass democracy as well as an end to religious hierarchies – Rationality: allows religious groups to communicate with each other, to better mobilize against secularism and improve retention, hardening boundaries Major recent changes: – Mimetic change #1: Rationality (post-1968, and post-1989) – weakens ‘secular religions’ of socialism and anarchism – Mimetic change #2 – Equality -‘Cultural turn’ of 1960s Left now opposes rationality, secularism, science

27. Evolutionary Theory: Demographic Nonmimetic change alters environment: demographic transition Educated and wealthy used to have more surviving offspring until late 1800s (Skirbekk) Neither poverty nor religiosity conferred growth advantage. Now both do. Religious grow: 1) directly through pronatalism/traditional gender roles (i.e. Haredim, Mormons); 2) indirectly, through poverty/low education which is linked to traditional gender roles and higher fertility (i.e. Muslim immigrants in Europe, US evangelicals in 20 th c, religious worldwide)

28. Will We All Be Haredi? ‘r’-strategy: C G Darwin’s The Next Million Years (1953)? But burgeoning religious memes like Haredim will encounter growing resistance Negative collective effects of religious fervour (poorer strategic decisions by religious states, slower technological progress) may render religious societies weaker, causing emigration or even higher mortality

29. The Contradictions of Liberalism Could have equilibrium of religious producers of people and secular consumers of them (i.e. McNeill on countryside surplus and urban mortality) ‘K’-Equilibrium: Advanced weaponry protects; superior economies attract labour; assimilation secularizes But environment has changed, favouring ‘r’- strategies ‘r’-groups can thrive in changed demographic, liberal environment created by ‘K’-groups Secular liberalism must either become illiberal or non-secular to preserve itself

30. Illiberal strategy: ‘secular religion’ like romantic nationalism (i.e. France); We see multiculturalism giving way to secular nationalism in Europe; Israel trying to integrate Haredim – Lieberman the start of an alarmist phase? Unsecular strategy: public religion with space for both secularism and tame fundamentalists (i.e. USA). But true secularism will be in retreat. Secular Liberalism will fall of its own contradictions (i.e. Nietzsche, toleration of illiberals) Israel will be the laboratory

31. Do Individual Genes Matter? Memes may work with or against the grain of genes Haredim do not contain more religious genes than secular Europeans Only in the very long run will unfit memes which fail to satisfy our genes be selected out – and likewise with unfit genes Those with genetic predisposition for religion may ultimately triumph, but only – paradoxically – if secularism prevails for a long time, allowing genetic religiosity a chance to express itself independently of religious memes

32. Project Website http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html

33. Modern education…liberates men from their attachments to tradition and authority. They realize that their horizon is merely a horizon, not solid land but a mirage…That is why modern man is the last man…. (Fukuyama 1992: 306-7)

34. Social cohesion is a necessity and mankind has never yet succeeded in enforcing social cohesion by merely rational arguments. Every community is exposed to two opposite dangers; ossification through too much discipline and reverence for tradition…or subjection to foreign conquest, through the growth of an individualism…that makes cooperation impossible. (Russell 1946: 22)