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The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London

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Presentation on theme: "The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London

2 Religion in the West Loss through secularization Moderation of slide by resistant remnant, notably fundamentalists Gain through demography

3 Demography and Religion Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people have more children than urban, wealthy, educated Direct: Religious have more children than seculars; fundamentalists more than moderates

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5 The Religious Tropics: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008 Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008

6 Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect: Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars

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10 Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

11 Source: Goujon et al Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios

12 Similar Dynamics in USA

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14 Religion in the West Loss through secularization Moderation of slide by resistant remnant Gain through demography – Indirect through global migration – Direct, through higher fertility Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize losses


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