1. The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

2. Religion in the West Loss through secularization Moderation of slide by resistant remnant, notably fundamentalists Gain through demography

3. Demography and Religion Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people have more children than urban, wealthy, educated Direct: Religious have more children than seculars; fundamentalists more than moderates

5. The Religious Tropics: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008 Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008

6. Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect: Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars

10. Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

11. Source: Goujon et al. 2006 Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios

12. Similar Dynamics in USA

14. Religion in the West Loss through secularization Moderation of slide by resistant remnant Gain through demography – Indirect through global migration – Direct, through higher fertility Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize losses