1. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia
Gu 2011
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
17th August, 2011
Bay/Bakool
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. Gu 2011 Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations – Bay and Bakool
FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for data collection of crop, livestock and markets information
Food security information was obtained through key informant and household focus group discussions 2

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
Bay Region:
2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral
High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low
Potential)
Primary sources of income of poor: self-employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops.
Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase
Primary livelihood asset of poor: land, cattle, sheep/goats

4. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
Bakool Region:
1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral)
Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
Primary food sources of poor: food purchase
Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle
2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral)
Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self-employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase.
Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production.

5. Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
Climate
Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay
and Bakool regions. Rainfall performance in terms
of intensity, duration, distribution and coverage
over time was below normal in both regions.
Start of Gu rains: Effectively started in third dekad of April and interrupted by a long dry spell in the first two dekads of May; restarted in the third dekad of May but ended early in all livelihoods.
Temporal and Spatial Distribution:
Most areas of Bakool received 20-60% of normal, with the exception of small pockets, which received %. The satellite imagery data indicating % of normal rainfall in east of Tieglow has not been confirmed through ground truthing.
Most of Bay regions received 40-80% of normal rainfall.

6. Vegetation Conditions - Bay
Climate
Vegetation Conditions - Bay
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

7. Vegetation Conditions - Bakool
Climate
Vegetation Conditions - Bakool
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

8. Civil Insecurity Civil Security Situation:
The overall civil security situation in Bay and Bakool agropastoral areas were relatively stable. However, in El Berde and Yeed in Rabdhure district (Bakool) is unstable due to recurrent political confrontations between the armed oppositions and the TFG.
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
Limited pastoral mobility.
Restricted cross-border trade with Ethiopia.
Disruptions of trade affecting both rural and urban areas. 8

9. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region 9 9
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA ( )
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average ( )
Maize
Sorghum
Baydhaba
255
3,600
3,855
14%
27%
29%
Buur Hakaba
1,692
12%
25%
28%
Diinsoor 45
1,000
1,045 6%
11%
Qansax Dheere 60
800
860 5% 9%
10%
Bay Gu 2011 Total
360
7,092
7,452
19%
20% 9 9

10. Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region 10 10
Districts
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA ( )
Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average ( )
Maize
Sorghum
Ceel Barde 0%
Rabdhure 21 7%
15%
26%
Tayeglow 30
148
178
10%
18%
31%
Wajid 35 3% 9%
12%
Xudur 23
106
129
22%
41%
Bakool Gu 2011 Total 53
310
363
17%
29% 10 10

11. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates 11 11
Bay Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Cowpea
Sesame
Groundnuts
Baydhaba
6,000
920
1,925
Buur Hakaba
2,400
120
Diinsoor
2,760
420
300
Qansax Dheere
1,725
1,035
1,050
Bay Total
12,885
2,495
3,275
Bakool Cowpea, Sesame, Groundnuts Production Estimates
Districts
Gu 2010 Production in MT
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Cowpea
Sesame
Groundnuts
Ceel Barde
Rabdhure 32 4
Tayeglow
210 21
Wajid 78 6
Xudur
126 17
Bakool Total
446 48 11 11

12. Agriculture Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)
Regional Trend in Gu
Cereal Production
(Bay Region)
Regional Trends in Gu Cereal Production
(Bakool Region)

13. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)
Annual Cereal Production by Season
(Bay Region)
Annual Cereal Production by Season
(Bakool Region)

14. Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos 1 2 3 14 14
1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Lafaale Village, Wajid, Bakool, FSNAU, July ‘11
2. Sorghum Crop Failure . Bulo Addoy, Dinsor, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11 .
3. Sorghum Crop Failure with Crop Fodder Harvest. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, July ‘11. 2 3 14 14

15. Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow Map
Bay supplies limited sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo and Banadir (Mogadishu). Currently, Bakool gets also cereals from Somali Region of Ethiopia. Bay region receives some maize from Somali region of Ethiopia through cross-border trade in Gedo and/or Bakool.

16. Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay)
Factors influencing sorghum prices:
Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods.
High demand for sorghum due to crop production failure in southern Somalia
Some decline of sorghum prices between June and July 2011 due to some new sorghum harvest
Sorghum flow-in from Ethiopia
Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool)

17. Labour Rates & Availability
Agriculture
Labour Rates & Availability
Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate,
Baidoa - Bay
Factors Influencing Wage Labour:
Low agricultural activities and low labour demand due to poor seasonal performance
Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate,
Hudur - Bakool

18. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum
Baidoa – Bay
(4 kg/ daily wage)
Factor Affecting ToT decline:
Significant increase in sorghum prices
Decrease of daily wage rate
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum
Hudur – Bakool
(3 kg/daily wage)

19. Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011
Water availability is poor to average for all livelihoods of the two regions
Average to poor pasture condition in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool region
Average to poor body condition for camel and goats and poor for cattle and sheep.
Normal migration for Bay and abnormal to normal for Bakool region.

20. Trends in Herd Size (Dec. ‘11)
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool
Region
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Calving/kidding
Milk production
Expected calving/ kidding
July – Dec. ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (Dec. ‘11)
Livelihoods
Livestock Species
Bakool
Camel: low
Cattle: low
Sh/goat: medium
Cattle: none
Sh/goat: low
Low
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: decrease (below baseline)
Cattle: decrease (below baseline)
Sheep/goat: decrease (below baseline)
B/Bakool Agro-pastoral
Bay
Camel: medium
Average for camel
Sheep/goat: increase (below baseline)

21. Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices
Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices
Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa – Bay)
Factors Influencing L. Goat prices:
High supply of livestock into markets
Poor livestock body condition
Low demand for livestock currently.
Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Hudur – Bakool)

22. Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade
Livestock
Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade
Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Baidoa - Bay):
38 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 126 kg/head in Jul ‘10
Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum):
High cereal prices
Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets
Slightly improved ToT in Jul ‘11 due to increased goat and reduced red sorghum prices
Trends in Terms of Trade: Between Local Goat and Red Sorghum (Hudur - Bakool):
24 kg/head in Jul ’11 vs 103kg/head in Jul ‘10

23. Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Bay and Bakool
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Bay and Bakool
Mixed Livestock Body Condition
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Bulo Gomor , Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011.
Early dried water-catchment, Bakaar weyn, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, July 2011
Near Average Goat Body Condition. Kobon, Qansahdhere, Bay, FSNAU, July 2011. 23

24. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices:
Increased fuel prices
Increased international food prices
Decreased commercial import supply from Northeast due to Monsoon season, which limited sea freight deliveries to the ports.

25. Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(July 2011)
Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm & <11.5cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving factors
Summary of analysis and change from Deyr’10/11
Bakool
BakoolPastoral ;
Rapid Small cluster survey (N=270)
GAM ; 55.9 ( )
SAM ; 20.4 ( )
CMR: 1.89 ( )
U5MR:5.06 ( )
FSNAU/ Partners,July’11 R=1
Bakool Agro-Pastoral
Rapid Small cluster survey (N=244)
GAM ; 45.9 ( )
SAM ; 16.4 ( )
CMR: 2.2 ( )
U5MR: 7 ( )
Bay Agro-Pastoral
Nutrition Assessment (N=456)
GAM ; 55.0 ( )
SAM ; 29.8 ( )
CMR: 1.09 ( )
U5MR: 4.04 ( )
FSNAU/ Partners,July’11 R=2
<12.5cm =18.1 ( )
<11.5cm =10.3 ( )
12.5cm=12.2 ( )
<11.5cm= 6.9 (4.6 – 10.3)
___________________
12.5cm=46.0%
<11.5cm= 13.9%
High level of acutely malnutrition and increasing trend in last four months. (Source: GTZ, SRCS;HIS data Jan-July’11).
_____________
High > 50 %& stable proportion of acutely malnourished children ‘(FSNAU partner HIS, Jan – June 11)
N/A
____________
High numbers with increasing trends (Source: DMO,COOPI SFP and OTP data Jan-July’11)
Insecurity and displacement
High morbidity and unknown diseases
Reduced food intake
Limited interventions ( health and nutrition)
_ __________________
Reduce food intake
Heavy case load of attendances at the existing feeding centres
Source: DMO &COOPI July’11, R=2)
High mobidity: Cholera outbreak
Bakool Pastoral –Very Critical with deterioration from Deyr’10/1 and likely to worsen
Bakool Agro-pastoral ; Very Critical phase since Post Deyr’10/11,
- but the situation has deteriorated to Famine
High crude death rates >2/10,000
________________
Bay Agro-pastoral –Very Critical with deterioration from Deyr’10/11, and likely to worsen
- High out-migration to Baidoa Town, Mogadishu , Ethiopia and Kenya

26. BAY/BAKOOL Nutrition Situation Estimates
April 2011
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011
Aggravating Factors:
Poor access to humanitarian assistance (water, health and nutrition-MCH and outreach services, SFP, OTP and SC)
Increased seasonal morbidity levels, especially ARI and AWD (confirmed cholera in Baidoa). Unconfirmed whooping cough, measles and unknown diseases.
Deteriorated food security due to crop failure and weakened livestock body condition following poor Deyr/Gu 2011 rain performance and limited opportunities for income
Low measles immunization and vitamin A supplementation status
Limited access to health services, safe water and sanitation facilities in both regions
Limited investment and humanitarian space due to political instability and civil insecurity
Chronically poor infant and young child feeding practices
Mitigating Factors:
Reliance on social support
Limited health and nutrition services in Baidoa, Huddur, Dinsor, Rabdure and Wajid

27. BAY/BAKOOL Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Bay: 100%P and 50%M in HE; 50%M in AFLC Bakool: 100%P in HE and 100%M AFLC Rural Population: Bakool Agropastoral (75%P Famine and 25%P HE; 50%M HE ;50%M AFLC); Bay Agropastoral High Potential (100%P in Famine and 100%M in HE); Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential (100%P Famine, 100% M HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (75%P Famine, 25% P HE, 50%M AFLC; 50%M HE) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 liters ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 liters ppp day -human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference) Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access);
MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation

28. BAY/BAKOOL Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Main Influencing Factors:
Poor Gu ‘11 cereal production: Bay -19% of PWA; Bakool - 17% of PWA
Depleted cereal stocks in Bay due to consecutives seasons of crop failure (2) and Bakool (8)
Loss of cattle, decline in camel, sheep/goats herd size in Bakool resulting from prolonged drought (from Deyr 2007/08 to Gu 2011)
Significant decline in cattle herds and cattle value in Bay region
Poor livestock body condition and abnormal migration
Reduced milk availability in both regions
Significant increase in prices of both local cereals and imported commodities
Reduced labour opportunities and access to income due to low Gu 2011 agricultural activities
Weak purchasing power reflected in the decline of ToT (between Jun ’10 and Jun ‘11): ToT daily labour/red sorghum in Bakool - from 5kg to 2kg and Bay - from 12kg to 3kg; ToT goat and red sorghum in Bakool - 98kg to 20kg/head; Bay kg to 25 kg
Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups, particularly in Bakool region (El-Berde, parts of Rabdhure)
Limited humanitarian support

29. BAY/BAKOOL Rural Population in Crisis by District
Affected Regions and District
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
Bakool
Ceel Barde
23,844
6,000
3,000
8,000
7,000
Rab Dhuure
31,319
12,000
1,000
10,000
9,000
Tayeeglow
64,832
24,000
21,000
Waajid
55,255
20,000
4,000
22,000
18,000
Xudur
73,939
28,000
SUB-TOTAL
249,189
90,000
5,000
30,000
92,000
79,000
Grand Total
95,000
201,000
Affected Regions and District
UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE
Famine
Bay
Baydhaba/Bardaale
247,670
2,000
129,000
78,000
Buur Hakaba
100,493
1,000
50,000
33,000
Diinsoor
63,615
32,000
20,000
Qansax Dheere
81,971
3,000
42,000
26,000
SUB-TOTAL
493,749
8,000
253,000
157,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
410,000

30. BAY/BAKOOL Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Famine
Bakool
Bakool Agro Pastoral
116,812
47,000
22,000
35,000
Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP
101,242
46,000
Southern Inland Past
31,135
8,000
5,000
11,000
9,000
SUB-TOTAL
249,189
90,000
30,000
92,000
79,000
Grand Total
95,000
201,000
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE
Famine
Bay
Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral Low Potential
178,683
8,000
173,000
95,000
Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential
315,066
80,000
62,000
SUB-TOTAL
493,749
253,000
157,000
Total Affected Population in AFLC & HE
410,000

31. BAY/BAKOOL Urban Population in Crisis
District
UNDP 2005 Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Bakool
Ceel Barde
29,179
5,335
1,000 37
2,000 75
Rab Dhuure
37,652
6,333
3,000 63 79
Tayeeglow
81,053
16,221
6,000 43 74
Waajid
69,694
14,439 48
5,000 76
Xudur
93,049
19,110
8,000 52
7,000 78
Sub-Total
310,627
61,438
24,000 49
22,000
25,000
District
UNDP 2005 Total Population
UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Deyr 2010/11
Gu 2011
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergenc y (HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Bay
Baydhaba/Bardaale
320,463
72,793
29,000 40
16,000
45,000 84
Buur Hakaba
125,616
25,123
6,000
2,000 32
8,000
Diinsoor
75,769
12,154
3,000
1,000 33
4,000
Qansax Dheere
98,714
16,743
5,000 30
Sub-Total
620,562
126,813
43,000 36
62,000 62

32. The End