1. Northwest Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. Normal access to all livelihoods of the Northwest regions for Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Post Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agropastoral)  Togdheer AgroPastoral are more pastoral, however there is an increasing dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales. Main source of food: Own crop and food purchase  Northwest Agropastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase. Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production  Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat

4. Start of Season: Started early - in 2nd dekad of Sep ’10 - in most parts of the Northwest zone Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall was poor in Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer and Sool). A long dry spell in Nov-Dec ‘10 in the regions of Sool, Sanaag and Togdheer Normal to above normal rains: Hawd of Hargeisa, West-Golis/Guban, and Agropastoral (100-125 mm of cumulative rainfall) Below normal rains: Sool Plateau, Nugal valley and Hawd of Togdheer (10-25mm of cumulative Oct-Dec ’10) Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

5. July NDVI difference from long term average Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Season

6.  Civil Security Situation:  Overall the security situation in the Northwest remains stable.  Resource conflict in grazing land in Kalshaale area of Buhoodle district, resulted in human death(9) and injuries(2). However, efforts from both elders and house of parliament, promoted peace in the area. The recent declaration of the President had further strengthened the peace resolution in the area.  The conflict over the disputed agricultural land of El-bardaale in Gebiley district was agreed to be resolved through dialogue from clans with the government assistance.  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:  Limited movement of transport to Buhodle area. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

7. Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Agriculture

8. Northwest Cereal Production

9. Agriculture Trends in Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Harvest Estimates Regional Distribution of Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Estimates (Harvested) Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010)

10. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Sorghum) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (kg of sorghum /daily wage) Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao

11. Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (White Sorghum) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (Kg of White Sorghum/ Daily Wage) Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Northwest

12. Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration Livestock Good performance of Deyr ’10/11 season in Awdal, W. Galbeed and Golis LZ of Togdheer resulted in normal pasture and water. Below normal Deyr rains in most of Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions with negative impact on both pasture/ browse and water conditions. Average to poor livestock body conditions, however below average milk production due to low camel calving and limited pasture and water availability. Abnormal livestock migration in Eastern Part of NW regions.

13. Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock species NW Hawd Camel: Low to None Sheep/goats: Low to Medium Nugaal valley: Camel: Low to None Sheep/goats: Low to Medium Sool plateau Camel: None Sheep/goats: Low to Medium Golis/Guban: Camel: Medium Sheep/goats: Medium to High Hawd Camel: Medium in Sool region but Low to none in togdheer and W. Galbeed Sheep/goats: Low to Medium Nugaal Valley Camel: Medium in Sool and Low to none in Togdheer and Sanaag Sheep/goat: High to Medium Sool Plateau Camel: None Sheep/goats: High to Medium Golis/Guban Camel: Low to None Sheep/goats: Medium to High All Species: Below Average Below Average Hawd: Camel: Medium Sh/goats: Low to Medium Nugaal valley: Camel: Medium Sh/goats: Low to Medium Sool plateau: Camel: Low Sheep/Goats: Low to Medium Golis/Guban: Camel: Medium Sh/Goat: Medium to High HawdCamel : Above Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 and is expected to increase by 15% till Jun. ‘11 Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 14% between Jun – Dec ‘10, but expected to be same till Jun. ‘11 Nugaal Valley Sheep/Goats: Same as Baseline. Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun ‘11 Sool Plateau Sheep/Goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 but expected to decrease by 22% till Jun. ‘11 Golis gubanCamel: Above Baseline. Increased by 35% between Jan – Jun ‘10 and further increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10 Sheep/goats: Near Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 11% of Baseline till Jun. ‘11

14. Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality

15. Livestock Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo Regional Trends in Goat Local Quality Price and Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat Local Quality

16. Livestock Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port

17. Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Livestock Good body condition Hawd, Hargeisa, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Early water trucking Hawd L/Anod, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor Pasture Condition. Nugal Valley, Taleh, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Early water trucking in Sool plateau, Badhan, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

18. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Appreciation of SlSh Increased price of rice and sugar at international markets Markets

19. Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings RegionNutrition Surveys (Oct-Dec’10) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info (Source: HIS data R=3) TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu 10 Pastoral – Agro- Pastoral West Golis/Guban GAM:10.4% (7.6-13.9) SAM: 1.6% (0.9-2.9) Hawd GAM: 10.1% (8.0-12.7) SAM: 1.8% (1.0-3.5) East Golis of Sanaag and Gebbi Valley GAM:11.1% (8.0-15.1) SAM: 2.1% (1.2-3.9) Sool Plateau GAM:8.3% (6.0-11.4) SAM: 1.6% (0.8-3.1) Nugal Valley GAM:10.3% (7.0- 14.8) SAM: 1.0% (0.4 – 2.3) Agro-pastoral of Galbeed/Awdal and Togdheer GAM:10.4% (7.6- 14.1) SAM: 0.8% (0.3 – 1.91) 4.1 (2.4-7.2) 3.1 (1.9-4.8) 5.8 (3.8-8.6) 2.9 (1.7-5.0) 4.2 (2.5-6.0) 1.5 (0.6-2.5) HIS TRENDS: Low <5% and stable number of acutely malnourished children HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable no. of acutely malnourished children HIS nutrition trend: High and fluctuating no. of acutely malnourished children HIS nutrition trend: 10- 15% and stable no. of acutely malnourished children HIS nutrition trend: high and fluctuating trend. of acutely malnourished children HIS nutrition trend: Low and stable numbers of malnourished children Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP N/A High and stable trends N/A Targeted feeding in MCH by WFP N/A MORBIDITY: 26.1% No disease outbreaks. MORBIDITY: 21.1% No disease outbreaks. MORBIDITY: 43.1 No disease outbreaks, poor milk availability MORBIDITY: 48.9 No disease outbreaks, MORBIDITY: 40.4 No disease outbreaks, MORBIDITY: 28.7 No disease outbreaks. Overall Aggravating Factors: Limited milk availability in the pastoral LHZs High morbidity (increased incidences of diarrhea following the water shortages in the area Inappropriate child feeding and care practices Poor access to sanitation facilities and safe water in rural LHZs Overall Mitigating Factors: Increased humanitarian programmes in the region (health, feeding, WASH) Child Health Days conducted in the area in the months of December/ January 2011 West Golis/Guban Serious- Stable, no change Hawd Serious- Stable, no change East Golis of Sanaag/Gebbi Deterioration from Alert to Serious Sool Plateau Alert – Stable no change Nugal Valley Deterioration from Alert to Serious Agro- Pastoral Deterioration from Alert to Serious

20. Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation July 2010 Somalia Estimated Nutrition Situation January 2011 Nutrition Nutrition Situation Maps

21. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Pastoral of Sool-Sanag Plateau HE: 50% P HE and 50% P AFLC East Golis/Gebi of Sanag region: Lasqoray district – AFLC Moderate Risk: 75% P; Other districts - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25%P in AFLC); Hawd and Nugal valley of Togdheer, Sanag and Sool - BFI High Risk to AFLC (25% of poor in AFLC); Livelihoods of W. Galbeed and Awdal are BFI with Watch Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day Water Access: Poor water availability, trucked water of high price than the normal., in Sool Plateau, Hawd and Nugal valley Destitution/Displacement: pastoral destitution from rural diffused Coping: distress strategies increasing Livelihood Assets: increased, but below baseline Main Contributing Factors:  Decreasing asset holding due to high off-take during Jilaal season  Lack of milk production (camel)  Reduced household income from own production (livestock/ milk sales)  High indebtedness (loans)  Increased expenditure on water for both livestock and human. MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11

22. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts NW Regions Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 10Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Awdal Baki16,9230000 Borama132,6950000 Lughaye22,0940000 Zeylac22,8010000 Sub-total194,5130000 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera18,6830000 Gebiley53,7170000 Hargeysa137,5130000 Sub-total209,9130000 Togdheer Burco191,7480012,0000 Buuhoodle28,821002,0000 Owdweyne30,924002,0000 Sheikh27,4000000 Sub-total278,8930016,0000 Sanaag Ceel Afweyn53,6381,000 5,0001,000 Ceerigaabo83,7483,000 6,0004,000 Laasqoray/Badhan76,90212,00011,00014,00011,000 Sub-total214,28816,00015,00025,00016,000 Sool Caynabo24,026002,0000 Laas Caanood50,606004,0000 Taleex20,9831,000 2,0001,000 Xudun15,5281,000 Sub-total111,1432,000 9,0002,000 Grand Total1,008,75018,00017,00050,00018,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE35,00068,000

23. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones NW Region Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE GU 10Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Awdal NW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle76,1590000 Fishing1,1490000 Golis Pastoral74,5920000 Guban Pastoral42,6120000 Sub-total194,5130000 Woqooyi Galbeed Fishing1,4370000 Golis Pastoral67,4550000 Hawd Pastoral70,8300000 NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle70,1910000 Sub-total209,9130000 Togdheer Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel23,6980000 Hawd Pastoral223,3470014,0000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984002,0000 Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 19,8640000 Sub-total278,8930016,0000 Sanaag Fishing15,1930000 Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel56,5964,00008,0000 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats30,4153,00004,0000 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396003,0000 Potato Zone & Vegetables7,0520000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral61,3479,000 10,000 Destitute pastoralists 6,28906,0000 Sub-total214,28816,00015,00025,00016,000 Sool Hawd Pastoral30,108002,0000 Nugal valley-lowland pastoral: Sheep, camel 72,608005,0000 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral7,6972,0001,0002,0001,000 Destitute pastoralists 73001,0000 Sub-total111,1432,000 9,0002,000 GRAND TOTAL1,008,75018,00017,00050,00018,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 35,00068,000

24. District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr ‘10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr ‘10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr ‘10/11 Awdal Baki8,577000 Borama82,921000 Lughaye14,010000 Zeylac5,434000 Sub-Total110,942000 Woqooyi Galbeed Berbera42,070000 Gebiley25,847000 Hargeysa422,515000 Sub-Total490,432000 Togdheer Burco96,463000 Buuhoodle9,607000 Owdweyne11,107000 Sheikh6,225000 Sub-Total123,402000 Sanaag Badhan7,3222,000 55 Ceel Afweyn12,1594,0003,00058 Ceerigaabo31,09810,0007,00055 Laasqoray5,5002,0001,00055 Sub-Total56,07918,00013,00055 Sool Caynabo6,6763,000045 Laas Caanood24,83012,000048 Taleex4,3712,000046 Xudun3,2572,000061 Sub-Total39,13419,000049 IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

25. The End