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EUROPEAN COMMISSION Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment Analysis FSEDC Meeting August 21, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya.

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Presentation on theme: "EUROPEAN COMMISSION Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment Analysis FSEDC Meeting August 21, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya."— Presentation transcript:

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment Analysis FSEDC Meeting August 21, 2009 Nairobi, Kenya

2 FSNAU Post Gu ’09 Assessment Overall Timeline

3 FSNAU Gu ’09 Assessment Partner Participation Total Number of People Field (FS) & Workshop – Total 111 Local Authority 10 Ministries 13 Local NGOs42 International NGOs12 UN Agencies35 REGION NGOGovernmentUN & Int’lTOTAL LocalInt’lMinistries Local Authorities Gedo Bakol10212 Central Region46111 Hiran2114 Middle Shabelle134 Lower Shabelle Northeast17311 Northwest Juba Valley4329 Total Analysis Workshop - Total 23 FEWSNET3 JRC-MARS2 WFP14 OCHA2 CEFA1 DEG GARAS1 Total Number of Participating Partner Agencies (FS + Nut) 102 Local NGOs 47 Int’l NGO’s20 Local Authority12 Ministries15 UN5 Int’l 3 Number of People Participating by Agency Food Security Field Assessment - Total 88

4 Gu ’08/09 Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locations

5 A.Sector Analysis Summary Results

6 Gu ‘09 Seasonal Rains Start on time (late March/ early April) Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the country Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below normal, especially in key pastoral regions of the north and central Areas of Poor Rainfall: Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer, Sanaag and parts of Galbeed Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool Areas of Near Normal Rainfall Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle Parts of Bakool, and south Gedo Hagaa Seasonal Rains Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts of Bay regions Juba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize and sesame). Shabelle & Juba River Levels - below normal rainfall in Ethiopian highlands Rain failure in northern Kenya – leading to abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba Climate Performance of the Gu ’09 Rains

7 Climate Gu ‘ 09 Vegetation Condition Source: FSAU /FEWSNET NVDI AVHRR Anomaly June, 2009 Crop/vegetation condition has been good in Bay, Juba and Shabelle Climate

8 Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July June 2009 Emerging Drought in Northern Pastoral Areas Three consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall – emerging drought Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an alarming degree, NDVI 36-month average deviation normal; lower than 1990/92 & 2001/03 droughts Climate

9 Deepening Drought in Central Pastoral Areas Climate

10 Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. – July ‘09) Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. – April) Slight improvement in some areas, but further deterioration in other areas Deterioration Since May ‘09 1.Worsened in several areas of southern and central Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet Weyne, Elbur and Hara-dhere 2.With significant impact on both urban and rural 3.Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between insurgents and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), 4.Worst fighting seen in months, causing both civilian deaths and massive displacement within the country and towards refugee camps of Kenya 5.Main impact is in the main towns and on humanitarian operations

11 Civil Insecurity Deterioration Since May ‘09 5.Resource-based conflict between clans and sub-clans, especially in drought areas (e.g. Central) 5.Improved Access and security situation of the ordinary people improved in some areas (e.g. L. Shabelle) 6.Continued Incidents of sea piracy have since January, despite multinational naval forces and efforts of the local people Ongoing & Likely to Increase: Direct Impacts Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses Destruction of Assets (Public & Private) Increased Population Displacement – 1.4 million IDPs (40% increase since Jan. ‘09) Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of aid workers and responses Indirect Impact: Disruptions of trade within the country and across regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia) and likely price increase Restrictions of livestock migration between clans boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M. Shabelle and difficult of the natural resource sharing (water, pasture and grazing) Further restrictions of humanitarian space Declining social support among livelihoods and wealth groups

12 Civil Insecurity Most Likely Scenario (July- Dec. ’09) Increased Likelihood of further Confrontation between different religious forces and TFG and different clans  Increased localized civil insecurity and clan tensions  Increased resource based conflicts, banditry and marine piracy  Kenyan border closure affecting IDP population movement and cross border trade mainly cattle and other commodities Main Areas of Risk : Mogadishu, Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo and Juba regions Main Impact: Mainly urban areas and trade movements in conflict areas, more limited direct impact on rural populations.

13 Somalia: Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July ‘09 Livestock

14 Livestock Sector Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Gu ‘09) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09) Milk production (Gu ‘09) Expected calving/ kidding July- Dec ’09 Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘09) LivelihoodsLivestock species Gedo Camel & Cattle: Low Sheep/Goats: Medium Camel: Low Cattle: None Sheep/Goats: Low Below Average for All species Camel: low Cattle: None Sh/goats: Medium Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline) Sheep/goats: Slight decreased (Below Baseline) Southern Agro-pastoral Camel: Same (Above Baseline) Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Slight Decrease (Below Baseline) Dawa Pastoral Camel: Same (Near Baseline) Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Slight decrease (Below Baseline) Juba Camel: Low Cattle: Low to None Sheep/Goats: Medium Camel: Low Cattle: medium Sheep/Goats: Medium Camel: low Cattle: None Sheep/Goat: None Camel: Medium Cattle: Low to None Sh/goats: Medium Southeast Pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Bakool Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium Camel: None Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Low to Medium Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Low Low for All species Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decrease (Below Baseline) B/Bakool Agro-pastoral Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) BayCamel: Low Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Medium Camel: Low Cattle: Medium Sh/Goats: Medium to High Camel: Average Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Average Medium for all species Southern Agro-pastoral Cattle: Increase (Same as Baseline) Sheep/goats: Increased (Same as Baseline) M/L Shabelle L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Low for all species L/Sh: Average for all species M.Sh: Cattle, camel: Low Sh/goats: Medium to Low M/Sh: Cattle, Goats: Below average Camel: Average L/Sh: Average M/Sh: Camel : Medium Sh/goats: low Cattle: Low L/Sh: Average Shabelle Agro-pastoralL/Shabelle: Increased all species M/Shabelle: Camel: increase Cattle &Sheep: Decreased (high deaths resulted from poor pasture & endemic disease)

15 Livestock Sector Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production Region Conception (Gu ‘09) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘09) Milk production (Gu ‘09) Expected calving/ kidding July – Dec ‘09 Heard Size Recovery Projected at (Dec ‘09) LivelihoodsLivestock species Hiiran Camel: Low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium to high Camel: None to low Cattle: None Sh/Goats: Medium to High poor all speciesCamel: Low Cattle: None Goat/sheep: Medium to High Hawd Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline) Sh/Goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Same (Below Baseline) Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline) Goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Galgaduud & south Mudug None for All species Camel: None Cattle: None Sheep/goats: None to low Very poor for all species Camel: None Cattle: None Sheep/goats: None Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline) Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline) Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline) Hawd Pastoral Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline) Goats: Increased (Below Baseline) Northeast Camel: None to Low Sh/Goats: Medium to Low Camel: none to Low Sheep/Goats: Medium to Low Camel: Poor (Bari), Very poor in Mudug & Nugal regions Sh/Goats: Avearge (Bari), Poor (Mudg & Nugal) Camel: Medium(Bari), None ( Mudug & Nugal) Sh/Goats: Medium to Low Hawd Pastoral Camel: decrease ( Below Baseline) Goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Nugal Pastoral Camel: Decrease (Same as Baseline) Sh/goats: Increased (Above Baseline) Sool Pastoral Camel: increase (below baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Above Baseline) Addun Pastoral Camel: Decrease ( Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Slight increase ( below Baseline) Northwest Camel: None Sh/Goats: Nugal Valley/Sool Plateau: Low Hawd/Golis Guban: Medium Camel: None Sh/goats: High to Medium Extremely Below Average for all species Camel: High to Medium except Nugal and Sool Plateau: Low Sh/Goats: Medium (Hawd, Golis/Guban) Low (Sool Plateau/Nugal valley Hawd Pastoral Camel: Increase (Above Baseline) Sh/goats: Decreased (Near Baseline) Guban/Golis Pastoral Camel: Increase(Above Baseline) Sh/goats: Slight Increase (Below Baseline) Sool PastoralCamel: same (below baseline) Sh/goats: Decrease (Near baseline)

16 Livestock Water Availability Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa Early depletion of water–SIP Afmadow Empty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK Dasa empty water catchment – Elwaq - Gedo Empty Berkads– Sool Plateau - Qardho Empty Teed communal water catchment- North Huddur

17 Livestock Pastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport Motorized out migration from Nugal Valley In migration from Gedo Using Pack camels Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox

18 Livestock Livestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle Emaciated camel body condition in Dh/mareeb Poor pasture & camel body condition in Nugal Valley Average cattle body condition in Juba Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle Poor camel body condition–B/Jajdid/Tayeglow

19 Livestock

20 Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh) Trends in Local Cattle Prices Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Cattle (SoSh/SLSh) Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh)

21 Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade Livestock

22 Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 year Average Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

23 Livestock Carcass Meat Exported: Jan – Jul MonthBuraoBeletweyneMogadishuGalkayo January7030Data not available 5,086 February7100Data not available 4,143 March7000Data not available 5,511 April5700Data not available 4,200 May6,300Data not available 4,387 June6,410Data not available 5,060 July6.700Data not available 3,110 Total46.240Data not available 31,497

24 Agriculture Gu ‘09 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia Regions Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu 2009 as % of Gu 2008 Gu 2009 as % of Gu PWA ( ) Gu 2009 as % of 5 year average ( ) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal Bakol %23%76% Bay 3,80034,50038,300113%106%167% Gedo 1, ,400148%26%67% Hiran %20%38% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 10,30010,10020,400817%242%727% Juba Hoose (Lower) %10%29% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 5,2001,8007,000129%44%50% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 64,1008,30072,400218%118%170% Gu 2009 Total 85,70055,700141,400170%102%158%

25 Gu’07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern Somalia Agriculture Rice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia Regions Off Season : Sept – Oct Maize (MT)Total Cereal Juba Dhexe (Middle)1,625 Juba Hoose (Lower)12,509 Total14,134 Region Gu ‘09 Rice Production Estimates (MT) Gu ‘09 Rice production as % of Gu ‘08 Rice Production Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) – Jawhar Only 2,400120% Total2,400120%

26 Agriculture Cereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern Somalia Regions Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu 2009 as % of Gu 2008 Gu 2009 as % of Gu PWA ( ) Gu 2009 as % of 5 year average ( ) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal Bakol %23%76% Bay 3,80034,50038,300113%106%167% Gedo 1, ,400148%26%67% Hiran %20%38% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 11,90010,10022,000882%256%665% Juba Hoose (Lower) 13, %227%554% Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 5,2001,8007,000129%44%50% Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 64,1008,30072,400140%115%156% Gu 2009 Total 99,80055,700155,500153%111%166%

27 Agriculture Trends in Cereal Production (no off season), Southern Somalia Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2009) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2009)

28 Regional Contribution Gu ’09 Cereal Production Maize Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution Agriculture Regional Cereal Contributions Sorghum Production Gu’09 Regional Contribution

29 Agriculture Gu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates Regions Gu 2009 Production in MT Gu-Karan 2009 as % of Gu-Karan 2008 Gu-Karan 2009 as % of Gu-Karan PWA ( ) Gu-Karan 2009 as % of 5 year average ( ) MaizeSorghumTotal Cereal Awdal %23%19% Togdheer %36%21% Woqooyi Galbeed 255,6405,66538% 33% Gu-Karan 2009 Total 436,5626,60538%36%30%

30 Agriculture Trends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production, Somaliland

31 Agriculture Gu ‘09 Poor Crops 1. Poor Sorghum Establishment. Garabis, Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July ’09 2. Sorghum Crop Failure with limited fodder harvested by the Owner. Bulo Burte, Hiran, July ‘ Poor Riverine Maize Crop due to water stress. Moyka village, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ‘

32 Agriculture Gu ‘09 Off-Season Good Crops 1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka Weer, Sakow,M. Juba, July,’09 2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka, L. Shabelle, July Good Sorghum Crop. Boodaale, Burhakaba, Bay, July ‘

33 Agriculture Cash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia RegionsGu 2009 Production in MT CowpeaSesame Ground Nut Off-Season Cowpea Off-Season Sesame Total Bakol Bay 2,0601,073 1, ,858 Gedo Hiran Juba Dhexe (Middle) 3123, ,124 Juba Hoose (Lower) ,2401,964 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 3, ,090 Gu 2009 Total 6,0095,3041, ,90015,740

34 Agriculture Gu ‘09 Cash Crops and Other income Activities Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow, Middle Juba, July ‘09 Vegetable production_Middle shabelle Fodder Collection, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, July ’09. Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle, July ‘09 Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, July ‘09. Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle Juba, July ‘09.

35 Agriculture Cereal Flow Map

36 Agriculture Commercial Cereal Import Trends ( ) MT 2009 (Jan. –July) 417,534 MT 118% of year 2008 (352,385MT) 99% of 3-year average (423,085MT)

37 Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions Agriculture Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2009 to May 2010 Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for Somalia (June 2009 to May 2010) CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘09 100% Net Commercial Imports (‘000MT) 75% Net Commercial Imports (‘000MT) DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY 276 Opening Stocks 16 Domestic Cereal Supply ’09/ Gu Gu Karan 2009 Northwest 7 Off-season Gu Estimated Deyr 09/10 95 DOMESTIC UTILISATION Cereal Utilization Requirements 636 IMPORT REQUIREMENTS Anticipated Commercial Imports ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL Stocks, Transit and Pipeline WFP ICRC ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT CEREAL 18276

38 Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (SoSh/SLSH) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Labor (kg of cereal/daily wage)

39 Trends in Exchange Rates Factors Affecting: Depreciation – Since Jan. ’07 to Sept ‘08 Excessive printing of SoSh High demand of USD Low remittance Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling Speculation and expectations Appreciation – Since Oct. ‘08 Significant increase in USD o Piracy o Proceeds from livestock sales Cessation SOSH printing Slowdown of business activities and exports Markets Monthly Exchange Rates - SoSh and SlSh to USD

40 Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive) Increased Global Prices High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes) High Transportation Costs Low Supply Disrupted Market Activities Reduced Trade Flows Low Substitute Commodity Trade Collusion Tariffs and Taxations Markets Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Central: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

41 Markets Consumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure Basket)

42 Markets Trends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and TOT (SoSh) Northeast South

43 Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and International Asia Markets; January 2007 – July 2009 Markets

44 Impact of Gu ’09 Performance on Gender During normal seasons most pastoral activities (e.g. looking after animals, fetching water and firewood, sale of livestock products and food purchase) are done by women, while these are managed by men during dry seasons Huge livestock migration (including lactating animals) in search of pasture and water resulted in family splitting with women and children remaining behind Abandoned women and children in the drought affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July ‘09 Jidbaale, July‘09 Qandhicilay, July‘09 Jidbaale, July‘09

45 Main effects on women: Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting the nutritional status of women and children as evidenced by nutritional surveys (‘ critical to very critical’ situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran, northern Bakool) Loss of control on the income from productive activities, such as livestock product & crop sales Lack of access to the social support for women left behind Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and wood from long distances Continued… %

46 Nutrition Overview Gu ’09

47 Nutrition Nutrition Information Sources Gu ’09 (April – July)  Nutrition Surveys 33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive) 17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central 3 focused on concerning areas in northwest / northeast from Deyr analysis 4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne, Adale, Galgadud & Mudug) 8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye & Merka) 1 focused on vulnerable urban populations (Bossasso)  Rapid Assessments using MUAC: (137 sites & 11,904 children 6-59months)  Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu & Belet Weyne  Conducted in 46 urban centres (n=4740)  Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n=7164)  Health Centre Monitoring Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)  Related Selective Feeding Centre Data Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and limited due to interrupted programming e.g. IMC, ACF  Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration) Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Hiran, Central, NE, NW Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo Displacement; in and out of Mogadishu

48 Summary of Key Findings Northwest : Confirmation of improvement in West Golis from Very Critical to Serious. Critical in East Golis and Guban & Karkar. Serious with risk to deterioration in other areas, still concerns IDP. Hot spot in south Toghdeer Northeast: Deterioration to Critical in Guban & Karkar and Serious in Nugal. IDP populations remain Very Critical. Bay/ Bakool: Bay agropastoral deterioration to Very Critical, Bakool agropastoral improvement to Serious and Bakool Pastoral sustained Very Critical. Shabelles: Sustained Serious in IDPs and riverine slight deterioration (not sig) to Critical in Agropastoral. Rapid MUAC assessment shows Very Critical in Mogadishu. Central & Hiran: Sustained Critical in Addun, and Hawd (slight improvement in Hawd but not sig.) Cow pea belt and Coastal Deeh stable at Serious. Hiran sustained Critical in riverine and Very Critical (deterioration) in agro pastoral. Gedo: Sustained Very Critical in pastoral & riverine. Slight improvement to Critical in agropastoral Juba – Deterioration to Very Critical in agropastoral and pastoral – likely linked to disease outbreak – stable in riverine at Serious

49 Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview Crude and Under 5 yrs mortality rates generally stable with exception of Shabelle AP, Juba AP & Riverine and Gedo AP which were at alert levels

50 Nutrition Trends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) – Gu 2009 The national median rate is 19% GAM and 4.6% SAM, which means almost 1 in 5 children acutely malnourished and 1 in 20 severely malnourished.

51 Nutrition Trends in levels of Stunting and Wasting (WHO GS) – Gu 2009 Consider the difference in NW (11%) and Sth Central (32%) !!!

52 Nutrition Situation Estimates - Maps Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009

53 Summary South / Central: Overall mixed picture, still high levels of nutritional vulnerability, Particular concern over areas with Very Critical, Gedo, Juba, Bay, Bakool, parts of Hiran and Mogadishu – in many areas more likely linked to disease rather than food access Lack of further deterioration in Central likely linked to humanitarian interventions – however populations still vulnerable However significant decreasing humanitarian space for agencies to meet to provide programmes, fewer partners – risk factor for further deterioration – e.g. Central & Bakool Northwest/ Northeast populations: Overall mixed picture West Golis recovery likely linked to returning livestock, increased access to milk and humanitarian interventions East Golis & Guban/ Karkar now of concern due to Critical rates Deterioration in Sool, Nugal and Hawd likely as a result of decreasing food security All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally vulnerable More opportunities for response – improvement in vaccination coverage due to CHD Major contributing cases continue to be disease (esp AWD) –due to WASH deficiencies, poor IYCF, and limited health services –exacerbated by poor dietary quality Major contributing cases for IDPs continue to be disease, poor IYCF, and limited health services – exacerbated by poor dietary quality - for rural areas more linked to food insecurity

54 B. Current Food & Livelihood Security Phase Classifications Summary Results

55 Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Rural IPC Populations July – December 2009 Rural IPC Populations January – June 2009

56 Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Urban and IDP IPC Populations January – June 2009 Urban and IDP IPC Populations July – December 2009

57 Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations January – June 2009 Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations July – December 2009

58 Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, July - December 2009 Region UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Urban in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Rural in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Urban in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Rural Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC and HE as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455110,942194,5135,00025, Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345490,432209,91355,00030, Togdheer 402,295123,402278,89355,00075,00020,0005,00039 Sanaag 270,36756,079214,28820,00075,0005,00015,00043 Sool 150,27739,134111,14315,00035,0005, Bari 367,638179,633202,73780,000025, Nugaal 145,34154,74975,86025,00015,00005,00031 Sub-total 2,341,7181,054,3711,287,347255,000 55,00025,00025 Central Mudug 350,09994,405255,69430,00040, ,00051 Galgaduud 330,05758,977271,08015,00035,00010,000200,00079 Sub-total 680,156153,382526,77445,00075,00010,000310,00065 South Hiraan 329,81169,113260,69825,00035,0005,000160,00068 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)514,90195,831419,07025,00060, ,00048 Shabelle Hoose (Lower)850,651172,714677,93735,00050,00010,0005,00012 Bakool 310,62761,438249,18925,00065,000070,00052 Bay 620,562126,813493,74920,0005, Gedo 328,37881,302247,07630,00080,000040,00046 Juba Dhexe (Middle)238,87754,739184,13810,0005, Juba Hoose (Lower)385,790124,682261,10820,00010, Sub-total 3,579,597786,6322,792,965190,000310,00015,000440,00027 Banadir 901, ,000-55,000-9 Grand Total 7,502,6542,895,5684,607,086520,000640,000135,000775,00028 Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HENumber affected % of Total population Distribution of populations in crisis Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE 655,000917% Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE 1,415, % Estimated number of new IDPs-updated 2nd Aug 2009 (UNHCR) 1,420, % Estimated number of protracted IDPs 275,00047% Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis 3,765, %

59 Jan-Jun '08 (A) Revised Apr-Jun '08 (B) Jul-Dec '08 (C) Jan-Jun '09 (D) Jun –Dec ’09 (E) % Increase or decrease (D to E) Urban-576,000705, ,000-7% Rural850,000921,0001,395,0001,170,0001,415,00016% New IDPs705,000855,000870,0001,020,0001,419,00039% Protracted IDPS275,000 0 Total1,830,0002,627,0003,245,0003,170,0003,764,00017% Somalia IPC Table Trends in Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis

60 Somalia IPC Table Distribution of Rural Populations in Crisis Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09 HE increased – from 680,000 to 775,000 (13% increase) Primarily due to increase in HE in Central, Hiran and Bakool Off-set by reduction of HE in L. Shabelle AFLC increased – from 535,000 to 640,000 (19% increase) Primarily due to increase in AFLC in north Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Rural Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC & HE % of Total in AFLC & HE Central680,156526,77475,000310,000385,00027 North East1,213,324488,51015,0005,00020,0001 South4,480,7802,792,965310,000440,000750,00053 North West1,128,394798,837240,00020,000260,00018 Grand Total 7,502,6544,607,086640,000775,0001,415,000100

61 Somalia IPC Table Distribution of Urban Populations in Crisis Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09 HE slight decreased – from 140,000 to 135,000 Due to slight decrease in HE L. Shabelle AFLC decreased – from 565,000 to 520,000 Due to decrease in AFLC South (L. Shabelle, Bay, & M Juba) Off-set by increase in AFLC in north Zone UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC & HE % of Total in AFLC & HE Central 680,156153,38245,00010,00055,0008 North East 512,979234,382105,00025,000130,00020 South 4,480,7801,687,815220,00070,000290,00044 North West1,828,739819,989150,00030,000180,00027 Grand Total 7,502,6542,895,568520,000135,000655,000100

62 Implications for Actions Humanitarian Access Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool) IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral) Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool) Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices Humanitarian Access Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of populations in need, receive assistance Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool) IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral) Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool) Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged high food and nonfood prices


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