1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 February 5, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action A tumbler site to help me remember –http://openclimate.tumblr.com/http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

3. Resources and Recommended Reading Rood’s Series on Bumps and WigglesRood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012

4. Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) –Analysis How weather and climate is organized –Physical geography –Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change

5. Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is, weather and ocean currents.

6. From Building the Radiative Balance Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE 2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS 1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy.

7. Consider the Distribution of Energy Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling SURFACE ATMOSPHERE CLOUD Equator (On average heating) North Pole (Cooling) South Pole (Cooling) Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes). Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.

8. Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface. Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD heat is moved to poles cool is moved towards equator This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico?

9. Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system. One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day –It will change because we are changing the distribution of heating and increasing the energy in the system.

10. Internal Variability

11. Sources of internal variability There is “natural” variability. –Solar variability –Volcanic activity –Internal “dynamics” Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

12. Some Aspects of Climate Variability One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather –Rainy periods Floods –Dry periods Droughts During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

13. An example of variability: Seasons Temperature Winter Summer Cold Warm Rain comes in fronts Rain comes in thunderstorms Messy Forced variability responding to solar heating

14. Wave Motion and Climate

15. Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures Differences Relative to 1961-1990 Average Late 1970s 2006-2011 From Jim Hurrell

16. Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

17. What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

18. Time Scales of Variability 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years El Niño / La Niña Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation LONG SHORT

19. Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño

20. Changes during El Niño

21. Some good El Niño Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La NiñaNOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño

22. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

23. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

24. Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

25. North Atlantic Oscillation Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm

26. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Arctic Oscillation Signal

27. Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

28. Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

29. Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Better version of figure from JISAO Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Warm here Cool here

30. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal

31. Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):JISAO –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC):CPC –90 Day Outlook Summary90 Day Outlook Summary –Weather and Climate LinkageWeather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):NCDC –Decadal OscillationsDecadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References –Mantua and Hare (2002) J of OceanographyMantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

32. How Weather is Organized

33. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Land

34. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Ocean

35. Atmosphere

36. Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

37. Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles HURRICANES

38. Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

39. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

40. Ocean

41. Ocean Surface Currents (From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)Steven Dutch Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers AssociationNational Earth Science Teachers Association

42. The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. Green shading, high salt Blue shading, low salt

43. In Class / Groups / Discussion Thermohaline Circulation – Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream –How does it affect climate? –How does variability affect climate? Consider: –Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,

44. Climate variability and change

45. Time Scales of Variability 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years El Niño / La Niña Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation LONG SHORT

46. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

47. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

48. Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009 Hawkins and Sutton, 2009

49. Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean –Greenhouse gases change energy balance –Atmosphere and oceans transport energy “Internal” variability (Redux) –Modes of internal variability organize weather in spatial and temporal patterns

50. Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015 How weather and climate is organized –Rotation of Earth –Location of land-water –Tilt of axis –Thermal characteristics Climate variability and change –Climate change occurs on a background of variability. –We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult to predict.

51. Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) –Analysis How weather and climate is organized –Physical geography –Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change

52. Projects Abrupt climate change Consequences of rapid change in the Arctic Analysis of the warming “hiatus”