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Published byVernon Hutchinson Modified over 8 years ago
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Benson Economic Outlook 2013
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National Economy Recession ended June 2009, slow recovery since 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost 2010-2013 (May): 6.3 million jobs gained GDP up 15 consecutive quarters Unemployment still high: 7.6% (May) Some positive signs (housing, labor market, consumer confidence) Fiscal policy/sequestration/budget cuts remain a threat Monetary policy/interest rates supportive of growth
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Arizona Economy
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Local Economy Benson & Cochise County
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Cochise County Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
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Benson Retail Sales Tax Revenue Growth Compared to same month previous year; unadjusted
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Retail Sales Cochise CountyBenson (TPT Revenue) 2013*4.5%-1.3% 20124.5%5.4% 2011-1.2%-5.6% 2010-4.8%-0.4% 2009-4.2%-4.8% 2008-6.5%0.6% 2007-1.3%38.2% Cochise County inflation-adjusted to CPI-U / Benson unadjusted * Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
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Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
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Restaurant and Bar Sales Cochise CountyBenson 2013*-5.2%15.1% 2012-4.4%-6.5% 2011-0.2%-11.1% 20100.0%-3.7% 20090.3%9.1% 20080.2%-0.6% 20070.1%-3.1% Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
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Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
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Accommodation Sales Cochise CountyBenson 2013*-14.6%66.5% 2012-17.2%-13.7% 2011-13.1%-6.1% 20108.3%1.0% 2009-9.0%-5.5% 20081.0%-7.5% 200719.7%17.6% Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
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Sales Outlook Countywide retail on rebound but sequestration/defense cuts threaten Countywide hospitality will continue to struggle, particularly accommodation Benson sales, particularly hospitality, will continue to improve
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Unemployment * Jan-May only; seasonally adjusted
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Unemployment (Monthly)
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Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County) Compared to same month previous year
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Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County) 12 months ended May 2013
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Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County) 12 months ended May 2013
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Employment Outlook National and state labor market improving Government job losses (Fort Huachuca and state/local) pose threat Border security deal may boost federal employment Nearby job creation (e.g., Rosemont Mine, Red Horse Wind Project, Sierra Vista hospital construction) may help Benson residents
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New Residential Construction SFR Permits
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Home Sales MLS only
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Home Prices Median Price (site-built only) * 1 st Quarter only
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Outlook New residential construction stalled due to competition from foreclosures Existing home sales volume given boost from foreclosures/lower prices
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Conclusion National economy hampered by fiscal woes/federal budget cuts, but some positive signs State economy improving County Defense budget cuts Border security deal may help Benson Highway construction completed Job creation in nearby areas UAS training facility?
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