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Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst.

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst."— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst

2 As of December 2013, non-farm jobs in the Seattle MSA grew by 44,800 jobs over the past 12 months –A 3.1% year-over-year increase The not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in King County was 4.7% in December 2013, down from 6.0% in December of Seattle area inflation was 1.3% (year-over-year) for December –Up from 0.6% in October EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 In January 2014, driver’s license transfers to King County grew 18.3% year-over-year, from 3,858 to 4,565, based on a three month moving average. King County Taxable Retail Sales were $12.1 Billion in Q3 2013, 7.4% greater than Q Home price index is remained high, 30 points above a recent low in February EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (continued)

4 Three Questions, Six Measures Is the economy growing and if so, how rapidly? –Two measures: Total jobs and new residents How is the cost of living changing? –Key measure: Wages and Inflation How are we sustaining public sector services and fiscal health? –Two key measures: home prices and taxable retail sales 4 CONTENTS

5 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Cumulative change in Seattle MSA and Washington State Employment, Washington State employment has grown by 7.8% since January Seattle employment has risen by 6.6% in the same period. Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc. 5 Percent Change Seattle Washington

6 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Percent Change Quarterly Seattle MSA and Washington State Employment, Seattle gained 44,800 in the last 12 months. Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc. 6 % change by quarter, year over year Washington Seattle

7 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Seattle MSA Employment Monthly change in jobs by sector (thousands), seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc. “Professional and Business Services” added over 7,400 jobs in Retail added 8,500 jobs. 7 Government and Education Other Services Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) Manufacturing Construction and Resources Retail WTU Information Change in jobs, thousands, month-over-month

8 WHAT’S DRIVING GROWTH? Change in Employment, Seattle MSA, Top 5 Sectors, December 2012 to December 2013 Retail added 9,400 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013, equal to 21% of job gains by subsector. Year-over-year change in 3 month moving average, percentage change in parentheses Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc. 8

9 MIGRATION King County License Transfers Total number of transfers (LHS) and year-over-year change (RHS), based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Department of Licensing; Community Attributes Inc. In the last 12 months, 11,300 Californians changed their residence to King County, followed by 3,600 Texans. More than 1,000 people from India changed their license. 9 Total change year over year % change year over year

10 COST OF LIVING Seattle Urban Consumer Price Index Year-over-year change, by month Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc. CPI increased slightly in the December, up 1.3% compared to 0.6% in October. 10 % change year over year 3.8% 1.3% -0.5%

11 HOUSING MARKET S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and Vacancy Rates Case-Shiller index for Seattle MSA is 30 points above recent low in King County apartment vacancy up 0.5% from April Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 3mma for price index, (Feb) Sources: S&P Case-Shiller Indices Dupre+Scott; Community Attributes Inc. 11 Vacancy Rate

12 RETAIL ACTIVITIES Total Taxable Retail Sales, King County Year-over-year change, by quarter Sources: Washington State Department of Revenue; Community Attributes Inc. Total taxable retail sales peaked at $12.1 billion in the third quarter Per capita taxable retail sales grew 7.4% y/y in Q

13 13 Thank you! Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst Community Attributes Inc.

14 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Unemployment and Labor Force, King County Year-over-year change, December 2008 – December 2013 Early in the recession, labor force decelerated faster than unemployment rate. Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc. 14 Percent Change

15 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Initial Unemployment Claims, King County Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc. 15 Number of Claims Construction


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