Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies Economic data tells a story of two.
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Economic Outlook Kevin Duncan, Ph.D. Professor and Senior Economist, Healy Center for Business and Economic Studies Economic data tells a story of two influences on local economy: – Growth in the national economy… Growth in Pueblo’s manufacturing industries. – Poor performance of the Colorado economy… Loss of jobs in Pueblo retail and service industries. “Muted recovery” from financial crisis.
Pueblo Employment Growth is Uneven Source: BLS IndustryGrowth: Oct-2010 to Mar-2011 Mining, Logging and ConstructionStable (at 3,200) Manufacturing+ 200 jobs Trade, Transportation and Utilities- 300 jobs InformationStable (at 700) Financial ActivitiesStable (at 1,900) Professional and Business Services+100 jobs Educational and Health Services-100 jobs Leisure and Hospitality-100 jobs Other Services-100 jobs Government+200 jobs
Unemployment Rates for Surrounding Counties (Source: CDLE) CountyUnemployment Rate (March 2011) Pueblo County11.2% Crowley County10.8% Otero County10.4% Las Animas County10.3% Huerfano County12.9% Custer County7.5% Fremont County11.6% State Average9.2%
Return of the Seasonal Employment Trend? January-March Seasonal Trend Pueblo County Employment Growth Source: BLS 2007913 more jobs 200816 more jobs 2009253 fewer jobs 2010424 more jogs 20111,181 more jobs
New Privately Owned Residential Building Permits Source: Census Bureau Less building, fewer loans into Pueblo
Pueblo’s Economic Outlook? Strengths: Local manufacturing employment and trend in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Weaknesses: High local unemployment and the local housing market. Threats: State budget cuts. CU forecast (December 2010): “Worst is over- maybe”. Momentum of US economy will lift Colorado and Pueblo. But, it will take time.