Presentation on theme: "Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s Economic Outlook Hotel Murano Tacoma, Washington May 15, 2008."— Presentation transcript:
Tom Potiowsky Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s Economic Outlook Hotel Murano Tacoma, Washington May 15, 2008
Look at Oregon Economy... Office of Economic Analysis
Recent Oregon Economy Facts … 5.7% unemployment rate for March 2008 – 10 th highest for the states. New release: March 2008 at 5.6% unemployment rate with April 2008 at 5.5%. 26 th fastest job growth at 0.6% for all states for March 2008 over March 2007. 5.7% unemployment rate for March 2008 is up from the latest lowest rate of 5.0% in April 2007. Total nonfarm employment grew 0.9% year-over- year for the 1 st quarter of 2008 (preliminary data). Job losses (S.A.) for both April and March 2008. 5.8% personal income growth for 4 th quarter of 2007 over 4 th quarter of 2006. Annualized 4 th quarter 2007 growth at 5.0%.
Last Two Recessions, Oregon faired better in 1990-91 and much worse during 2001 1990-91 National duration 8 months, about the same for Oregon ‘V’ shaped recession 1.6% decline in Oregon jobs; 1.5% decline for US Oregon ranked 24 th worst Inflation at 6.0% Oregon unemployment rate peak 7.5% (about same as US), 22 months over 7% 2001 National duration 8 months, about 31 months for Oregon ‘W’ shaped recession 4.0% decline in Oregon jobs; 2.0% decline for US Oregon ranked 12 th worst Inflation at 3.4% Oregon unemployment rate peak 8.5% (higher than US), 37 months over 7%
Oregon’s Position in the Latest Downturn Nationwide, foreclosure-related filings (e.g., default notices, auction sale notices, etc.) increased 75% nationwide from 2006 to 2007. Oregon had a 12% increase over the same period, 43 rd slowest rate in the U.S. Oregon’s foreclosure rate at 0.533%, half the national average and well below 1.5% plus rate of NV, FL, CA, AZ, OH, MI. Oregon still has positive single family house price appreciation as of 4 th quarter 2007 (overall, but Medford and Bend are slightly negative, Portland most likely dipping into negative territory— S&P/Case-Shiller price index has Portland slightly negative). Housing correction has less to adjust compared to other high population growth areas. But, residential building permits down -49.4% total and -51.0% single for March 08 year-to-date. (Deschutes: -68.4% total and -66.5% single) Unemployment initial benefit claims up by 3,000, trend pointing to slower economic growth.
Housing Related Sectors Feel the Effects (1 st Quarter 2008)
Unemployment Rate by Region, March 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted; Portland MSA includes Oregon counties only) Source: Oregon Employment Department Office of Economic Analysis 5.3% 6.2% 6.9% 8.8% 8.3% 7.9% Oregon: 6.3% (seasonally adjusted: 5.7%) U. S.: 5.2% (seasonally adjusted: 5.1%)
Unemployment rate by MSA designations, March 2008 Note: Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton includes Clark and Skamania counties in Washington State Office of Economic Analysis Source: Oregon Employment Department
Oregon was Late to the Run Up in Prices (Jan. 05 to Mar. 08) LoanPerformance OR WA (Repeat sales)
Total Non-farm Employment (Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis
Population: Oregon & U.S. (Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis
Personal Income: Oregon & U.S. (Annual Percentage Change) Office of Economic Analysis
(Percent change) Employment200820092010 Baseline0.60.71.7 Pessimistic-0.3 1.4 Optimistic1.21.8 Personal Income200820092010 Baseline220.127.116.11 Pessimistic18.104.22.168 Optimistic22.214.171.124 Oregon June 2008 Forecast Comparison: Alternative scenarios (draft)
Oregon Economic Assessment Going Forward … Wood Products is in terrible shape, slight help from exports, but very depressed. Exports a sign of relief for agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors with overseas business. Housing starts will continue to drop this year, correction and mild growth in 2009. House price appreciation may go negative (state-wide) but adjustment should be quick. The drop in home prices will not be as dramatice as other “hot” markets. Expect bottom fishing of positive and negative price changes into 2009. Job losses are possible in 2008, but may look more like 1990-91 rather than 2001. Strong Federal Reserve cuts in rates and Fiscal Stimulus Package likely out in May will lessen the downturn.
Office of Economic Analysis 155 Cottage Street NE, U20 Salem, OR 97301-3966 (503) 378-3405 email: firstname.lastname@example.org http://www.oea.das.state.or.us For more information… Office of Economic Analysis