1. Today’s Topics Indirect International Influences & Challenges to Transition Paradigm 1. Learn how indirect international factors may discourage democratization. 2. Group discussion activity weighing positive and negative external influences. 3. Supplement Carothers’ critique of the transition paradigm with specific empirical challenges for 3 rd wave electoral democracies.

2. International influences that may discourage democracy Declining accountability of government in the globalized world? 1. Loss of autonomous economic decisionmaking power. 2. Influence of transnational NGOs.

3. Loss of autonomous decisionmaking power Governments must balance budgets, lower taxes, cut spending due to global demands. Governments may be forced to take decisions that diverge from policy platforms they were elected on.

4. Loss of autonomous decisionmaking power Some claim loss of state sovereignty due to competing authority structures: Emergence of supra-national institutions: European Union. International treaties and organizations: NAFTA, WTO, IMF

5. Decline of Sovereignty? Therefore Decline of Democracy? Treaty of Westphalia (1648) established sovereignty principle as governments’ authority to make and enforce rules. Sovereignty has never meant complete control over cross-border flows.

6. Influence of Transnational NGOs Extensive transnational networks among NGOs in different countries. Often lobbying for an arguably pro-democratic cause: protection of individuals’ rights. But is this really democratic, without comparable influence from local citizens? E.g. environmentally destructive development projects (Case: Narmada dam, India).

7. Summing Up International factors encouraging democracy: 1. Demonstration/ snowball effects. 2. International norms & laws. 3. Decolonization. 4. Economic globalization: foreign investor demands (sometimes). International factors discouraging democracy: 1. Erosion of government accountability due to loss of economic decisionmaking autonomy, transnational NGO pressure.

8. Group Discussion Activity Which set of international forces is more influential (pro- democracy or anti-democracy) and why? Come up with reasons why. 1. Think on own (2 minutes). 2. Form group with 4-5 like-thinkers and reach consensus about reasons (5 minutes). 3. Each side of argument reports back to class. 4. Vote by all on most convincing side.

10. 1. Any country moving away from dictatorial rule can be considered in transition toward democracy.  Many countries have adopted a few democratic features, yet show few signs of democratizing further.  Should be understood as having alternative directions different from democratic transition.

11. 2. Democracy tends to unfold in a set sequence of stages.  In many cases not as transitologists would expect.  E.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico – extremely gradual and government- controlled.

12. 3. Belief in the crucial importance of elections.  Often elections don’t lead to much else in democratization.

13.  Basically free & fair elections for president but no checks & balances.  Not “consolidated” in terms of institutionalization, but may be stable & enduring.  E.g. Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Russia.

14. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  May be true of initial transition, but socioeconomic “preconditions” very important for successful further democratization.

15. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Cultural/ historical legacy: Central and Eastern Europe, former USSR. ▪ “Distance from Berlin” pattern shows salience of history with democracy and cultural integration with Europe.

16. 4. Belief that structural conditions will not strongly affect the initiation or outcome of democratic transition.  Informal institutions: “unwritten rules, norms, and social conventions rooted in shared expectations and reinforced by social sanctions” (Collins).  E.g. Corruption, organized crime, clans, other patron-client networks.

17.  Formally democratic institutions established after fall of USSR.  Relations among clans really determine power and resource distributions.  Clans = large kinship-based networks.  Asset-stripping and “crowd out” democratic processes.  Prevent rule of law.

18. 5. Assumption that democratic transitions are being created in functioning, stable states.  State-building has been a much bigger task than analysts and foreign donors imagined.