1. Past and present climate change impacts on rangeland production Bolortsetseg B., Erdenetuya M., Sanjid S., Manibazar N., Gantsetseg B., Bat-Oyun Ts.

2. Impact of climate change Introduction to rangeland Rangeland productivity Pasture carrying capacity Plant phenology Plant population Land cover change Modeling of rangeland ecosystem

3. Introduction to rangeland The total agricultural used land - 130541.3 thousand ha in Mongolia –Pasture – 97.5 % (127307.0 thousand ha) –Hay – 1.5 % (1986.6 thousand ha) –Agricultural land per person - 53.8 ha (20 times the world average) –Livestock –23.6 million Scientific research of vegetation has started since 1950 by Russian scientists and national specialists. Geobotanical field surveys were done in 1950-1955, water resource exploration expedition in 1959-1961, rangeland mapping and expedition in 1991-1992.

4. Rangeland ecosystems The high mountain belt The mountain taiga belt The forest steppe The steppe The desert steppe The desert

5. Rangeland biomass Data: Rangeland monitoring biomass data of 64 sites for 1966-2001 Ecosystem N of stations time series 4. Jun 14. Jun 24. Jun 4. Jul 14. Jul 24. Jul 4. Aug 14. Aug 24. Aug pea k the forest steppe 1816-311.31.92.53.03.64.34.95.3 5.9 the steppe 1319-341.21.51.8 2.02.32.72.8 3.0 the Altai mountains 517-240.7 0.91.01.11.3 1.41.31.7 the desert steppe 1817-290.70.81.0 1.21.41.51.61.72.2 the desert 218-210.60.70.80.91.2 1.41.51.41.7 the forest steppe 0.01-0.010.01-0.05-0.03 -0.06-0.05-0.07-0.06 the steppe -0.04-0.07-0.06-0.07 -0.05 the Altai mountains 0.00-0.01-0.02 -0.01-0.02-0.01 -0.02 the desert steppe -0.01-0.02-0.04-0.01 0.00-0.02-0.01-0.03 the desert -0.01-0.03-0.04-0.05-0.06-0.05-0.07 Changes in biomass, g/m2/1year Biomass, 100kg/ha

6. Rangeland biomass (continued) Peak biomass trend at Arvaiheer (steppe), Erdenemandal (forest steppe), Mandalgobi (desert steppe), Ulgii (Altai mountains)

7. Pasture carrying capacity The total pasture carrying capacity - 44.5 million sheep unit based on average observed peak biomass. Based on the decreasing trend of peak biomass by 20-30 %, the total pasture capacity was calculated as 32.6 million sheep unit. Past 40 years the total pasture carrying capacity was drop down by 27 % because of biomass decrease. Ecosystems based on average biomass taking account of biomass decrease the forest steppe1509014012223013 the steppe110650237413566 the Altai mountains 957624737370 the Gobi desert1741746212192224 total4453024932566173

8. Pasture carrying capacity The total pasture carrying capacity - 44.5 million sheep unit based on average observed peak biomass. Based on the decreasing trend of peak biomass by 20-30 %, the total pasture capacity was calculated as 32.6 million sheep unit. Past 40 years the total pasture carrying capacity was drop down by 27 % because of biomass decrease. Ecosystems based on average biomass taking account of biomass decrease the forest steppe1509014012223013 the steppe110650237413566 the Altai mountains 957624737370 the Gobi desert1741746212192224 total4453024932566173

9. Plant phenology Phenological date of 8 dominant plants such as Agropyron sp., Cleistogenes sp., Festuca sp., Leymus chinensis, Stipa sp., Carex sp., Allium polyrrhizum and Artemisia frigida was analysed and defined their trends. Time series longer than 15 years were selected for the analysis. Plants emergency is tend to start earlier in the forest steppe and the steppe. In the Altai mountains, the desert steppe and the desert some of plants (Artemisia frigida, Stipa sp.) have had delayed onset trend. Plant senescence occurred earlier in the forest steppe, the steppe and the Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. PlantEcosystem N of stations time series, years emergen- cy heading Flowe- ring seeding Senes- cence Tren d- emrg Trend- Sensc. Cleistogenesthe steppe518-255/137/298/179/69/18-0.14-0.34 Cleistogenesthe Altai mountains1275/166/267/308/259/130.65-0.31 Cleistogenesthe desert steppe1116-305/247/148/179/89/16-0.010.14 Stipathe forest steppe1715-325/97/47/288/219/11-0.49-0.12 Stipathe steppe1414-345/87/78/38/269/15-0.46-0.04 Stipathe Altai mountains518-295/156/187/128/108/310.00-0.75 Stipathe desert steppe1419-325/116/197/138/59/60.07-0.11 Stipathe desert222-245/36/116/217/179/9-0.030.30

10. Plant phenology (continued) Because of extended drought, some plants such as Allium polirrhizum, Rheum nanum, Limonium tenellum, Ferula bungeana and etc. have not flowered and develop just after rain. As a result, summer flowering plants have been become to flower early spring or late autumn and flowering occurred indefinite time. Some plants such as Pulsatilla, Caragana sp. have flowered in autumn which is considered as plant special responces to environmental negative effects. Flowering rhythm changes in the desert steppe flowering seasonin 1970 yearsin 2000 years No of species% % spring916,61527,0 the whole summer1527,81831,6 summer2342,623,5 autumn713,01424,5 not stable 814,0 Source: Sanjid, 2002

11. Plant population Plant composition and species number changes of communities with Leymus - Potentilla bifurca, Leymus chinensis – Stipa krylovii, Agrostis mongolica – Carex orthostachys, Carex orthostacys – Potentilla anserine in Orkhon meadow. Due to field survey of communities with Leymus - Potentilla bifurca, Leymus chinensis – Stipa krylovii, Agrostis mongolica – Carex orthostachys, Carex orthostacys – Potentilla anserine, plant composition and species numbers in autumn of 2002 are more than in the beginning of 1980 years that those years were very dry, but less than in the middle of 1980 years. In some sources, biomass of low nutrient plants increased and production of high quality plants decreased because of intensified grazing. Source: Manibazar N

12. Land cover change 19921997 2002

13. Modeling of rangeland ecosystem Century 4.0 is used for the study. 37 sites in different ecosystems were selected. 0.5x0.5 0 grids were prepared. Monthly climate data were input. Soil data () for sites and grids were defined in the model. Plant composition C 3 :C 4 was defined The average annual nitrogen (N) fixation rate was defined as 0.2 to 0.8 g/m -2 year -1.

14. Modeling of soil organic matter Soil organic C Soil organic N Comparison of simulated and actual steady state soil carbon and nitrogen

15. Soil organic matter changes for past 40 years Soil organic N Soil organic C According to soil organic matter changes distribution, soil organic matter raised in the north part of the forest steppe and the eastern steppe. Generally in the southern part of the country had decreased trend of soil organic matter.

16. Simulation of rangeland biomass Comparison of simulated and actual biomass Simulated aboveground live peak biomass, g/m 2

17. Rangeland peak biomass changes NEcosystem NPP, g/m2 simulated biomass, g/m2 measured biomass, g/m2 change in simulated biomass, %/40 years change in rain, %/40 years 1The forest steppe584.5179.571.7-11.84-1.58 2The steppe418.4119.747.1-12.31-3.07 3 The Altai mountains 198.836.816.319.7616.26 4The Gobi desert142.124.021.321.3012.38 Annual NPP, biomass and biomass and rainfall changes for 1961-2000 years

18. Rangeland spring biomass and its changes Spring biomass and biomass and precipitation changes ecosystem AprilMay biomass, g/m2 biomass change, g/m2/1 year precipitati on change, cm/1 year biomass, g/m2 biomass change, g/m2/1 year precipitatio n change, cm/1 year the forest steppe26.75-0.20-0.0150.27-0.34-0.12 the steppe14.97-0.04-0.0132.60-0.18-0.01 the Altai mountains4.530.040.0013.130.050.01 the desert steppe2.540.010.005.740.010.00

19. Thank you for your attention