1. 1 Vulnerability and Risk Vulnerability and Risk 2003 National Hurricane Conference New Orleans, LA April 14, 2003 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, Director Lab for Social & Behavioral Research International Hurricane Center

2. QUESTIONS: What’s involved in assessing risk? What are some possible elements of a coordinated Federal response to assess and address the risk of coastal communities and residents?

3. + VULNERABILITY HAZARD = RISK (Event Risk) (Outcome)

4. HAZARDS Accurate information about incidence and nature of the hazard Accurate information about incidence and nature of the hazard Probabilistic event risk Based on historical data, prediction science

5. TROPICAL CYCLONES WINDS WINDS SURGE SURGE INLAND FLOODING INLAND FLOODING TRACK TRACK TIMING TIMINGInitiatives: Better prediction models Better prediction models Standard language Standard language Effective illustrations Effective illustrations Visualization Visualization Accurate mapping Accurate mapping Real-time modeling Real-time modeling

6. Airborne Laser Terrain Mapping Infrared laser range finder provides distance to ground Infrared laser range finder provides distance to ground Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath aircraft Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath aircraft Differential GPS provides aircraft location Differential GPS provides aircraft location Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientation Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientation Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surface Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surface Infrared laser range finder provides distance to ground Infrared laser range finder provides distance to ground Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath aircraft Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath aircraft Differential GPS provides aircraft location Differential GPS provides aircraft location Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientation Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientation Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surface Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surface

8. 0 0 5 5 10 Feet

9. VULNERABILITY Inherent characteristics of the response system Whatever limits the ability of a community or individual to respond effectively: Mitigate Mitigate Prepare Prepare Evacuate Evacuate Respond Respond Recover Recover

10. DIMENSIONS OF VULNERABILITY Root Factors UnsafeEnvironment Dynamic Pressures

11. DYNAMIC FORCES Population growth Population growth Rapid urbanization Rapid urbanization Economic restructuring Economic restructuring Changing politics Changing politics Etc. Etc. “…over the next 50 years, economic losses from socioeconomic and demographic changes …. will be from 20 to 60 times greater than losses due to increased incidence of extreme weather.” Sarewitz, Pielke Jr., and Keykhah

12. POPULATION AT RISK 83.2 million reside in Atlantic and Gulf coastal counties 83.2 million reside in Atlantic and Gulf coastal counties 29.6% of U.S. population 29.6% of U.S. population Coastal density: Coastal density: Atlantic = 402.0 per square mile Atlantic = 402.0 per square mile Gulf = 136.8 per square mile Gulf = 136.8 per square mile Non-Coastal U.S. = 44.2 per square mile Non-Coastal U.S. = 44.2 per square mile

15. ROOT CAUSES LACK OF RESOURCES Economic Economic Physical Physical Political Political Social Institutions Social Institutions Social Networks Social Networks (Contextual Factors)

16. Household Hazard Vulnerability Can Result from:  Inadequate economic and material resources  Physical and mental limitations  Age, gender, race/ethnicity discrimination  Large ratio of dependents to productive adults

17. Household Hazard Vulnerability Can Result from: Lack of knowledge and/or prior disaster experience Lack of knowledge and/or prior disaster experience  Illiteracy or lack of language proficiency  Cultural differences  Lack of social integration  Lack of control over housing conditions

18. Selected Types of Coastal Households % of Total Female-headed With children under 18 With children under 18 13.6 13.6 Elders (over 65) 14.0 14.0 Renters36.3 U.S. Census 2000.

19. UNSAFE ENVIRONMENT Fragile physical environment Fragile physical environment Fragile social environment Fragile social environment

20. REDUCING VULNERABILITY Doesn’t rely on accurate prediction Doesn’t rely on accurate prediction Pays off even if no event Pays off even if no event Improves quality of life Improves quality of life Requires real money up front to reduce hypothetical losses Requires real money up front to reduce hypothetical losses Tough political sell Tough political sell Requires leadership, incentives and regulations Requires leadership, incentives and regulations

21. FEDERAL ROLE? Take the lead in moving the paradigm toward a vulnerability approach to risk management. Take the lead in moving the paradigm toward a vulnerability approach to risk management.

22. “Federal initiatives such as Stafford Act, National Flood Insurance, beach nourishment programs, tax incentives for second homes should be reexamined to reduce their role as stimulators of coastal growth.” Heinz Report on Human Impacts “Federal initiatives such as Stafford Act, National Flood Insurance, beach nourishment programs, tax incentives for second homes should be reexamined to reduce their role as stimulators of coastal growth.” Heinz Report on Human Impacts

23. Support research to better understand how individual factors known to influence vulnerability work and the findings used by emergency managers and disaster responders to address the needs of specific groups and places. Support research to better understand how individual factors known to influence vulnerability work and the findings used by emergency managers and disaster responders to address the needs of specific groups and places.

24. Provide education and outreach programs to change policy and practice at all levels toward a vulnerability paradigm. Provide education and outreach programs to change policy and practice at all levels toward a vulnerability paradigm.

25. Promote the development Promote the development of models that link in a coherent and convincing framework. hazard risk, hazard risk, vulnerability, vulnerability, resilience, and resilience, and day-to-day life day-to-day life

26. References Blaikie, P.T., I. David Cannon, and B. Wisner. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge Press. Sarewitz, D., R. Pielke, Jr. and M. Keykhah. “Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective.” Unpublished manuscript. Buckle, P., G.L. Marsh and S. Smale. 2002. Reframing Risk, Hazards, Disasters, and Daily Life. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 20 (3): 309-324.

27. Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, Director LAB FOR SOCIAL & BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER Florida International University Miami, FL 33199 morrowb@fiu.edu Phone: 305 348 1607 www.fiu.edu/~lsbr