Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1

2 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 2 Learning Objectives  Learn The basic elements and processes of hazard analysis. The basic dimensions and elements in vulnerability analysis. The concepts of multi-hazard, exposure, susceptibility and resilience.  Understand Spatial, dimensional and temporal components of hazard analysis. Progression of vulnerability associated with root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions. Scales, sectors and components for vulnerability analysis. Use of indicators in vulnerability analysis. Coupling and interaction between hazard and vulnerability and the dependency of vulnerability on hazard.

3 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Hazard Analysis  Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability of occurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place, at a specific time, and with specific intensity and duration for a vulnerable population.  Where? How Big? How Often?  Output: Severity of event by location This map shows relative shaking hazards in the United States and Puerto Rico. During a 50-year time period, the probability of strong shaking increases from very low (white), to moderate (light blue, green, and yellow), to high (orange, pink, and red). Blue dots are past earthquakes. Map not to scale. Source: USGS 3

4 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Where, How Big, How Often? Where are the areas which are potentially threatened?  Analyze extent of impacted area 1 spatial analysis How bad can it get? What are the dimensions?  Analyze local characteristics  With what intensity and force do hazards occur?  On what scale to the hazards occur? 2 dimensional analysis 3 temporal analysis When and how often are future hazards to be expected?  Analyze frequency and duration of the hazard event  Intervals (or cycles) of recurrence 4

5 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Multi-hazard Analysis  Analysis of only single hazards in an area might lead to a misjudgement of the „all hazards“ risks for these areas.  Indexing can be one way of combining different hazards in one map.  Hazards may be weighted equally or weights can be assigned based on the frequency of each hazard.  Comparisons between the impact of different natural hazards on a population are more correctly performed by examining risk rather than hazard indicators. 5

6 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Vulnerability  Paradox: Measuring vulnerability without precisely defining it!  “Vulnerability defined as conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.” (UNISDR, 2004)  Multi-structures of Vulnerability Exposure/Value Fragility/Susceptibility Coping Capacity/Resilience 6

7 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Progression of Vulnerability Source: Blaike et al. (1996) Earthquake Wind storms (cyclone/ hurricane/ Typhoon) Flooding Volcanic eruption Landslides Drought Virus and pests Ideologies: ▪Political Systems ▪Economic Systems Lack of:  Legal frameworks  Institutions  Training  Appropriate skills  Local Investments  Press Freedom  Ethical Standards in public life Macro Forces  Rapid Population change  Rapid Urbanizatio n Physical Environment:  Dangerous Locations  Unprotected buildings and infrastructure Economy:  Livelihoods at risk  Low income level Social Relations:  Populations at risk  Lack of solidarity Public actions and Institutions:  Lack of disaster preparedness THE PROGRESS OF VULNERABILITY Limited Access to: ▪Power ▪Structures ▪Resources ROOT CAUSESDYNAMIC PRESSURES UNSAFE CONDITIONS HAZARDS 123 Disaster 7

8 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Hazard Intervention Vulnerability Intervention VULNERABILITY LACK OF RESILIENCE SUSCEPTIBILITY and FRAGILITY Physical Ecological Social Economic Cultural Institutional Adjusted from MOVE (2009) A Vulnerability Framework 8 EXPOSURE Spatial/ Temporal Capacity to anticipate Capacity to cope Capacity to recover HAZARD Exposure Reduction Fragility / Susceptibility Reduction Resilience Improvement International/National Sub-national Local

9 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Resilience  Resilience is the capacity of an individual, community, organization, city, nation to respond, cope and recover from a disaster.  Resilience in physical and social systems can be seen as having four infrastructural qualities: Robustness: the inherent strength or resistance in a system to withstand external demands without degradation or loss of functionality; Redundancy: system properties that allow for alternate options, choices, and substitutions under stress; Resourcefulness: the capacity to mobilize needed resources and services in emergencies; and Rapidity: the speed with which disruption can be overcome and safety, services, and financial stability restored. 9

10 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Vulnerability Dependency on Hazard Maize Sorghum Degree of Vulnerability of an infrastructure, a community, a society or a process should be related to the magnitude of the hazard in question through fragility curves (or fragility functions). 10

11 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Scales, Sectors and Components of Vulnerability “fractal” nature of Vulnerability “Ministry of Education” “School District” “School Principal” Source: Villagrán, (2001) 11

12 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Vulnerability Analysis - Indicators  Many aspects of vulnerability cannot be directly measured or observed, though they can be described.  Indicators have been used broadly in economic, social and environmental analysis of vulnerability.  Vulnerability indicators should provide information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity and resilience of a system.  Below is a mathematical description of risk as a function of the nature of a hazard and the vulnerability to that hazard.. 12

13 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis A Social Vulnerability Index 1Family Structure 2Poverty 3Unemployment 4Disability 5Home/Land Ownership Fragility Factors (-) Resilience Factors (+) Theme Conceptual Framework Quantitative Indicators 1Social Networks 2Risk Perception 3Risk Mitigation 4Community Preparedness 5Mobility Social Vulnerability Index Social Fragility How do personal attributes and living situations affect vulnerability? How do finances contribute to recovery? Coping Capacity How do social networks affect vulnerability? How does access to services affect vulnerability? Source: MIS model,

14 Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis Process of Risk Analysis Exposed Assets Physical, Social, Environmental, Financial DAMAGES & LOSSES EVENT Susceptibility RISK Coping Capacity Physical Financial Social Environmental VULNERABILITY Time Space INTERVENTION 14 TimeSpace HAZARD


Download ppt "Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability Session 2 Dr. Bijan Khazai Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google