1. Elements of Risk Analysis – Hazard and Vulnerability
Session 2
Dr. Bijan Khazai
Risk Analysis
Fundamentals of Risk Analysis 1 1

2. Learning Objectives Learn Understand
The basic elements and processes of hazard analysis.
The basic dimensions and elements in vulnerability analysis.
The concepts of multi-hazard, exposure, susceptibility and resilience.
Understand
Spatial, dimensional and temporal components of hazard analysis.
Progression of vulnerability associated with root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions.
Scales, sectors and components for vulnerability analysis.
Use of indicators in vulnerability analysis.
Coupling and interaction between hazard and vulnerability and the dependency of vulnerability on hazard.

3. Hazard Analysis
Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability of occurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place, at a specific time, and with specific intensity and duration for a vulnerable population.
Where? How Big? How Often?
Output: Severity of event by location
This map shows relative shaking hazards in the United States and Puerto Rico. During a 50-year time period, the probability of strong shaking increases from very low (white), to moderate (light blue, green, and yellow), to high (orange, pink, and red). Blue dots are past earthquakes.
Map not to scale. Source: USGS

4. Where, How Big, How Often?
spatial
analysis
Where are the areas which are potentially threatened?
Analyze extent of impacted area 1
How bad can it get? What are the dimensions?
Analyze local characteristics
With what intensity and force do hazards occur?
On what scale to the hazards occur?
dimensional
analysis 2
When and how often are future hazards to be expected?
Analyze frequency and duration of the hazard event
Intervals (or cycles) of recurrence
temporal
analysis 3

5. Multi-hazard Analysis
Analysis of only single hazards in an area might lead to a misjudgement of the „all hazards“ risks for these areas.
Indexing can be one way of combining different hazards in one map.
Hazards may be weighted equally or weights can be assigned based on the frequency of each hazard.
Comparisons between the impact of different natural hazards on a population are more correctly performed by examining risk rather than hazard indicators.

6. Vulnerability
Paradox: Measuring vulnerability without precisely defining it!
“Vulnerability defined as conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.” (UNISDR, 2004)
Multi-structures of Vulnerability
Exposure/Value
Fragility/Susceptibility
Coping Capacity/Resilience

7. Progression of Vulnerability
THE PROGRESS OF VULNERABILITY 1 2 3
ROOT CAUSES
DYNAMIC
PRESSURES
UNSAFE
CONDITIONS
HAZARDS
Physical Environment:
Dangerous Locations
Unprotected buildings and infrastructure
Economy:
Livelihoods at risk
Low income level
Social Relations:
Populations at risk
Lack of solidarity
Public actions and Institutions:
Lack of disaster preparedness
Lack of:
Legal frameworks
Institutions
Training
Appropriate skills
Local Investments
Press Freedom
Ethical Standards in public life
Earthquake
Wind storms
(cyclone/
hurricane/
Typhoon)
Flooding
Volcanic eruption
Landslides
Drought
Virus and pests
Limited Access to:
Power
Structures
Resources
Disaster
Ideologies:
Political Systems
Economic Systems
Macro Forces
Rapid Population change
Rapid Urbanization
Source: Blaike et al. (1996)

8. Vulnerability Intervention
A Vulnerability Framework
HAZARD
Hazard Intervention
International/National
Sub-national
Local
Vulnerability Intervention
VULNERABILITY
SUSCEPTIBILITY
and FRAGILITY
LACK OF
RESILIENCE
Exposure
Reduction
Fragility /
Susceptibility
Resilience
Improvement
EXPOSURE
Physical
Ecological
Social
Economic
Cultural
Institutional
Capacity to
anticipate
Spatial/
Temporal
Capacity to
cope
Capacity to
recover
Adjusted from MOVE (2009)

9. Resilience
Resilience is the capacity of an individual, community, organization, city, nation to respond, cope and recover from a disaster.
Resilience in physical and social systems can be seen as having four infrastructural qualities:
Robustness: the inherent strength or resistance in a system to withstand external demands without degradation or loss of functionality;
Redundancy: system properties that allow for alternate options, choices, and substitutions under stress;
Resourcefulness: the capacity to mobilize needed resources and services in emergencies; and
Rapidity: the speed with which disruption can be overcome and safety, services, and financial stability restored.

10. Vulnerability Dependency on Hazard
Degree of Vulnerability of an infrastructure, a community, a society or a process should be related to the magnitude of the hazard in question through fragility curves (or fragility functions).
Maize
Sorghum

11. Scales, Sectors and Components of Vulnerability
“fractal” nature of Vulnerability
“Ministry of Education”
“School District”
“School Principal”
Source: Villagrán, (2001)

12. Vulnerability Analysis - Indicators
Many aspects of vulnerability cannot be directly measured or observed, though they can be described.
Indicators have been used broadly in economic, social and environmental analysis of vulnerability.
Vulnerability indicators should provide information regarding the susceptibility, coping capacity and resilience of a system.
Below is a mathematical description of risk as a function of the nature of a hazard and the vulnerability to that hazard. .

13. A Social Vulnerability Index
Theme
Fragility Factors (-)
Resilience Factors (+)
Social Fragility
How do personal attributes and living situations affect vulnerability?
How do finances contribute to recovery?
Coping Capacity
How do social networks affect vulnerability?
How does access to services affect vulnerability?
Conceptual
Framework 1
Family Structure 2
Poverty 3
Unemployment 4
Disability 5
Home/Land Ownership 1
Social Networks 2
Risk Perception 3
Risk Mitigation 4
Community Preparedness 5
Mobility
Quantitative Indicators
Social Vulnerability Index
Source: MIS model , 2009

14. Process of Risk Analysis
EVENT
Time
HAZARD
DAMAGES & LOSSES
Space
VULNERABILITY
Exposed Assets
Physical, Social, Environmental, Financial
Physical
Financial
Social
Environmental
Susceptibility
Coping Capacity
RISK
Space
Time
INTERVENTION