1. Center of Excellence PEACE OPERATIONS Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria LTC (Ret.) Esko Rautiainen

2. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria Objectives: u u Examine the development of MOEs for complex humanitarian emergencies and peace operations u u Identify some potential MOEs u u Define interrelationship between MOEs, and end-states

3. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Primary Use: E Evaluate whether mission is succeeding or failing Secondary Use: u u Establishes planning partnerships u u Brings together organizations that need to support each other u u Establish a common approach u u Minimizes confusion & risk u u Provides end-point or trend analysis

4. Center of Excellence MOEs in Modern Complex Emergencies u Operations demand unprecedented interagency planning, coordination & cooperation u Events may demand coordinated MOEs u Every agency will have different MOEs and end- state u Contingencies abound that may adjust MOEs

5. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State HOW DO WE START THE PROCESS?

6. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Examine the possible “end state or country conditions at exit” using seven categories. u Political Resolution u Demilitarization u Basic Needs u Public Security u Governance u Economy u Civil Society

7. Center of Excellence End-State Sustainable Security The capacity of a society to solve it’s own problems peacefully without an external administrative or military presence A common conceptual approach and a common standard of sustainable security will greatly assist the determination of an end state. Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller

8. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness MOEs will need to be developed: u For transition points applicable to each components u For the point where sustainable security is reached *Note: the two may not be the same

9. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Will need to establish MOEs for the sustainable security point for each of these elements Political Resolution Political Resolution Demilitarization Demilitarization Basic Needs Basic Needs Public Security Public Security Governance Governance Economy Economy Civil Society Civil Society

10. Center of Excellence MOE & End-State Analysis  Done before the conflict –Approaches for preventive diplomacy –Provides the best overall perspective  During a conflict –Define limits of external operations –Work with local and other intervening agencies –Prepare exit strategies  After containment of a conflict –Plan transition strategies –Link political framework with plan to rebuild

11. Center of Excellence MOE & End-State Who Evaluates u Professional Soldiers –security, indigenous armies u Humanitarians –basic needs u External Police –professionalism, competence, level of training & autonomy u International Judges and Lawyers –local judicial system, standards, training & support requirements u Public Administration Specialists –the civil service, medical services, elections

12. Center of Excellence MOE & End-State Some Suggested MOE Examples u u % Target population resettled (refugees) u u % of aid reaching delivery sites u u Response time (delivery of relief to target site) u u # of weapons collected, withdrawn (security) u u Reduction of violent incidents (security) u u # of police trained and operating (justice) u u % Decrease in crude mortality (medical)

13. Center of Excellence MOE & End-State Some Suggested MOE Examples u % Decrease in case fatality rates (medical) u Rate of return to pre-disaster acceptable conditions – infrastructure conditions – infrastructure u Efficiency and effectiveness of government –sound budget? –Needs assessment?

14. Center of Excellence Broad MOE Categories Who does what?

15. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness Medical Health Decline in mortality and morbidity Medical support teamsMedical support teams NGOs - (MSF, M du Monde, UN Agencies)NGOs - (MSF, M du Monde, UN Agencies) Government aid agenciesGovernment aid agencies Military - in emergenciesMilitary - in emergencies

16. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness  Reduction in levels of violence/threats  Reduction of arms flows, disarmament  Security Military / Security ForcesMilitary / Security Forces Civilian PoliceCivilian Police Special Operations ForcesSpecial Operations Forces

17. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness Public Health Infrastructure All Political / Diplomatic appointeesAll Political / Diplomatic appointees Civil AffairsCivil Affairs UN AgenciesUN Agencies NGOs/IOsNGOs/IOs

18. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness Public Communication Host Nation Host Nation Civil Affairs/PSYOPS Civil Affairs/PSYOPS NGOs/IOs NGOs/IOs

19. Center of Excellence End-States/Exit Strategies

20. Center of Excellence Definition of Exit Strategy “..the planned transition to the host nation(s) of all functions performed on its (their) behalf by peace operations forces” Benson and Thrash: Parameters. 1996

21. Center of Excellence Exit Strategies in Complex Emergencies No information on how to develop an exit strategy Transition to other forces/agencies not supported by lessons learned There will be many transitions Little or no time to plan exit strategies

22. Center of Excellence TRANSITIONS CIVILIAN MILITARY CRISIS STABILIZATION STABILIZATION LIFESAVING LIFESUPPORT ECONOMIC&SOCIAL POLITICAL SUPPORTOPERATIONS (Example only) MILITARYOPERATIONS

23. Center of Excellence Developing Exit Strategies in Complex Emergencies Develop coordinated civil-military Develop coordinated civil-military exit strategies exit strategies Transition (military end-state) dependent on Transition (military end-state) dependent on “level of comfort/safety” of civilian agencies “level of comfort/safety” of civilian agencies Identify and seek requirements/confirmation Identify and seek requirements/confirmation to validate end-state to validate end-state

24. Center of Excellence Making Exit Strategies Work Visualize operation from start-to-finish Recognize characteristics, responsibilities, limitations of civil-military partners Recognize characteristics, responsibilities, limitations of civil-military partners Use MOEs and critical pathways as Use MOEs and critical pathways as management tools management tools

25. Center of Excellence Measures of Effectiveness & End-State Criteria Questions ?

26. Center of Excellence Definition “A complex emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’ capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response” IASC of the United Nations