1. ESS Topic 3 Lesson 2 Key concepts: Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate, Fertility, Doubling Time, Natural Increase Assessment Statements 3.1.2

2. BIRTH RATE Surely it simply shows the number of babies born in a particular country? But different countries have different population sizes? And over what time frame do we measure? How can we make this equal between all countries?

3. Calculating Crude Birth Rate Total number of births in one year Total population of the country X 1000 = CBR Using this idea, write down the correct formula for Crude Death Rate too.

4. Do some calculations Annual Births http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=SOWC&f=inID%3A75 http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=SOWC&f=inID%3A75 Population Size http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population Select 5 countries and find the relevant data to calculate their Birth Rates (to 1 decimal place).

5. Fertility Rate The average number of children per woman in a particular country. Sometimes only women of child- bearing age (15-49) are counted. Is a high fertility rate a “good” thing? Suggest reasons why a country would have a high fertility rate? How about a low fertility rate? What if the fertility rate is too low?

6. Replacement Fertility “Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which new-born girls would have an average of exactly one daughter over their lifetimes. That is, women have just enough female babies to replace themselves (or, equivalently, adults have just enough total babies to replace themselves).” In other words, 2 parents need 2 children to replace them. Because there are slightly more boys than girls, the replacement level in many countries is around 2.1.

7. Doubling Time The number of years it would take a current population to double if its current rate of growth continues. The number 70 should be divided by the population growth rate (%). Eg. HK = 70 / 0.4% = 175 Years Calculate the doubling time for your 5 chosen countries.

8. NI = BR – DR (+- M) What do you think the letters in this formula represent? Write out the formula in full, and explain what it calculates.

9. Tasks Open the file called “2. Activites” Read through the information, then work through questions 1-12. I will collect these answers next lesson.