1. Modeling Drivers of Rebellion National Defense University Center for Technology and National Security Policy Dr. Michael Baranick, Senior Research Fellow John Applebaugh, Research Associate

2. Rebellions/Uprising Occur more often in weak states – low infrastructural power or high despotic power Often are a struggle between those that want change and those that prefer the status quo  Access to jobs  Equal rights  Land  Modernization versus Traditionalism Uprisings against the government can turn to rebellion. Successful rebellion bring about revolutions Recent Examples:  Tunisia  Egypt  Libya  Bahrain  Iran

3. PopulationEconomy Government Economic Elite Political Elite Internal Stable State

4. Components of the State The Government  Ensures the 10 functions of the State (next slide)  Address concerns of population, adjudicate grievances  Influence the economy – regulation, management, taxation, etc. The Population  Provide laborers and consumers for the economy  Bring concerns and grievances to the government  Strong national identity in stable states The Economy  Licit  Illicit: Corruption, Smuggling, Criminality (more prevalent in weak states) Elites  Economic Elites  Business Owners, Landlords, etc.  Political Elites  Formal or Informal connections to the members of the government

5. The 10 Functions of the State 1.Legitimate Monopoly on the means of violence 2.Administrative Control 3.Management of public finances 4.Investment in human capital 5.Delineation of citizenship rights and duties 6.Provision of infrastructure services 7.Formation of the market 8.Management of the state’s assets (incl. the environment, natural resources, and cultural assets) 9.International relations (incl. entering into international contract and public borrowing) 10.Rule of law

6. PopulationEconomy Government External Actors Economic Elite Political Elite Internal/External Stable State

7. External Actors Actors outside the state Directly and indirectly influence the state Positive and negative influences  Positive: Trade improves economy, increases well-being  Negative: Invasions impact the economy, government, and population External Actors, e.g.: terrorist/militant groups, the international community/interventionist states, NGOs and IOs

8. Population Government External Actors Economic Elite Political Elite Refugees & Diasporas Dissident Group Neutral Group Loyal Group Economy State in Conflict

9. States in Conflict Start with the Population petitioning the Government to change laws, improve equality, improve opportunities, etc. Government responds  Addressing the Population by changing the status quo  Must not be overwhelming controlled by elites, who have the most to lose from such changes  Or, Government punishes the Population through the use of force Population divides  Loyalists, who support the Government in power  Dissidents or Rebels, who want significant changes to the Government or the creation of a new government  A large neutral group, who chose not to show support for either side (initially)

10. States in Conflict Dissidents either:  Continue non-violent activities to undermine the legitimacy of the Government, or  Pursue violent activities as a guerrilla movement to force change Additionally, Dissidents can either:  Seek the support of the rest of population, which makes them more responsive to the needs of the population  Or, seek outside assistance, which brings the interests External Actors into the conflict  Rebellions that rely on outside support often increase the duration and intensity of the conflict Refugees and Diasporas can influence the conflict  Influence over the population  Influence over external actors  Influence over the economy

11. Resources for State Building Resources for post-revolutionary consolidation The Civil Service and Military  Civil Service and military of old regime can be a resource if they were impersonal bureaucracies – not based on patrimony. Human and Cultural Capital  Human capital: skilled labor is generally unchanged  Cultural capital: symbolism and cultural identity to win popular support rather than have to rely on coercion Visionary and Pragmatic Leadership  Need for both types of leadership External Actors  Can be provide national frameworks or material support; sometimes are a threat to post-revolutionary states

12. Population Economy GIRoA External Actors Economic Elite Political Elite Refugees & Diasporas Insurgents Neutral Group Loyal Group Licit Illicit Afghanistan

13. The Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan does not have the capacity to provide the 10 functions of the state.  Reliance on ISAF for security and the aid community for development/economic input  Government does not reach all areas  Un-governed space allows insurgents opportunity to create alternative government Licit domestic economy is small compared to international aid and illicit economic activity  Corruption  Smuggling  Drug-lords  The Economic “Elite” are tied to illicit activities, which makes meaningful change difficult Population is divided: most are stuck in-between. Choosing sides means risking death. Additionally, no strong national identity – many various tribes, clans, etc. The presence of ISAF and aid organizations have created dependency within the population. The population is more likely to petition ISAF and aid organizations than GIRoA. Sanctuaries and support from Pakistan prolong the conflict and contribute to violence against civilians by the insurgents, who don’t have to consider the needs of the population as much.

14. Summary Uprisings occur when there is an un-meet need within the Population, causing the Population to petition the Government The Government, because of elites, weakness, or external actors may not adequately address the concerns of the Population – which leads to rebellion Rebellions can persist and intensify under the pressure of external actors, influence of elites, or the limited capacity of the Government