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1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 1990 1998 2010 20302 GDP The forecast of development of the Russian oil-extracting industry GDP 1980 ©Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS Moscow 2008

2 Main problems Decrease of the available oil deposits. For the period of 1995-2007 excess of an oil extraction over stock gains from surveying has made about 1,3 billion tonns Low oil refining depth (about 70%) High degree of the fixed capital depreciation Expected growth of capital intensity and operation costs High share of taxes in revenues Deficit of available funds for Investment

3 Share of the oil extraction in gross value added

4 Role of the oil sector in gross domestic product production

5 Dynamics of free flow and operation costs Mineral Extraction Tax Export Tariffs Operation costs

6 The petroleum sector extraction sub-model’s scheme

7 Link between russian interindustry model and petroleum sector sub-model Petroleum sector submodel Russian Interindusty Model (Currently CONTO) Price Indexes Demand of petroleum products Outputs and exports of oil extraction and oil refinery Tax revenues (mineral extraction tax, export tariffs, profit and value added taxes) Amount of investment in petroleum sector

8 Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs I In the basic regions of oil extraction (Near-Caspian, republic Komi, an other European part of the Russian Federation, Western Siberia and Ural Mountains, Eastern Siberia, the Far East) all deposits have been allocated on three categories : readily available and developed, mid-available and difficult and/or undiscоvered As a result 18 categories of deposits (3 categories in each of 6 regions), each with the volume of reserves, development cost and operational were received

9 Estimations of Capital intensity and Operation Costs II Further, we assumed that the most accessible deposits will be developed first of all. Thus we have received dynamics of growth of the capital intensity caused by exhaustion of cheap deposits and gradual transition on more and more expensive deposits. So, capital intensity of development of deposits was settled up on the basis of volume of the extracted petroleum as an accruing result from the beginning of the forecast period

10 Approximation of Capital Intensity Growth

11 Approximation of Operation Costs

12 Forecast dynamics of prices and costs

13 Investment function I Investment lag, calculated on basis of total amount of extracted oil Total amount of oil extracted from the beginning of forecast period – indicator, used to reflect the oil resources depletion

14 Investment function II “represent” oil prospecting, licensing,drilling “represent” maintenance and modernization

15 Investment function III - deflated investment

16 Investment function IV

17 Oil Extraction’s Amount and Capital Investment Rate

18 Forecast estimations of the oil extraction’s dependence from mineral tax size

19 Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=15)

20 Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=25)

21 Oil Extraction and Exports (MET=35)

22 Oil refinery production (MET=15)

23 Oil refinery production (MET=25)

24 Oil refinery production (MET=35)

25 Structure of oil refinery production

26 Thank you for attention


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