Presentation on theme: "2 PRESENTATION “ECONOMIC POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF REFORMING MARKET OF POWER AND ELECTRIC ENERGY AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INVESTMENT PROGRAM” Archangelskaya."— Presentation transcript:
2 PRESENTATION “ECONOMIC POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF REFORMING MARKET OF POWER AND ELECTRIC ENERGY AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INVESTMENT PROGRAM” Archangelskaya A.I.
3 Market model (status) in 2010 None Operational units as of 2007New units built after 2007 Regulated power market No power market Risk hedging mechanism No power market Regulated electricity market Electricity sold per regulated contracts at the price established by RF Tariff Service Electricity sold at market price
4 I. Approaches to forecasting the revenues of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period up to 2022 Forecasting REA revenues in 2010 Annual production program Electricity generation Level of next day market prices Level of regulated tariffs Electricity sales Available capacity per month
5 Market model after 2011 Risk hedging mechanism Investment surcharge Operational units as of 2007 New units constructed after 2007 Safety surcharge Electricity market Capacity market Liberalization ratio (sales at free price Price regulated by RF FTS
6 I. Approaches to forecasting the revenues of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period up to 2022 Forecasting REA revenues starting from 2011 Annual production programs Level of market prices with allowance for deflators associated with gas price changes Revenues from selling capacity of the operational NPP at capacity markets Revenues from selling electricity at regulated prices Revenues from selling capacity to ensure safe operation of NPP Price for capacity of the new power units Investment program of Rosenergoatom OJSC Revenues from selling capacity to support construction (renovation, upgrades)
7 Uncertainties of the forecasts The uncertainty areas of the forecasts starting from 2011: deflator indexes; ration of the electricity market liberalization: Vision of the RF Ministry of economic development – 76%, Minenergo estimates – 82%; limiting growth of the regulated tariffs: From 14 to 26%; funding of the investment program from the Federal budget.
8 Forecasts of the revenues of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period of 2011-2022 Year 201120122013201420152016 Revenue forecast 293,5303,8330,4327,0381,0445,7 Year 201720182019202020212022 Revenue forecast 502,3525,0593,3662,3688,6748,0 Mln.rub. (without VAT) REA revenues for 2011 – 2022
9 Revenues from sales per regulated contract – for supplying public 26,9 Revenues from sales of electricity at the “next day market” 118,0 Revenues from capacity market147,1 including: Investment surcharge86,8 Safety surcharge30,3 Revenues from sale of Bil NPP1,5 Total293,5 Forecasts of the revenues of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period of 2011-2022 REA revenues for 2011 – 2022 Mln.rub. (without VAT)
10 Conditions for collecting revenues in 2011 In order to provide for the investment funds in the amount of 302,2 billion rubles, we need to have the following prices: - electricity at the day ahead market – 890 rub/MW*h; - for capacity of operational units – 120 rub/MW per month; - electricity and capacity per regulated contracts (for public) – 214,3 rub/MW*h and 394 027 rub/MW per month; - safety surcharge – 133 140 rub/MW per month; - investment surcharge– 381 008 rub/MW per month; - for capacity of new units – 211 568 rub/MW per month. Corrections of the forecasts are performed by investment program based on the decisions of the RF regulatory bodies.
11 II. Forecasts of the expenses of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period up to 2022 Approaches to forecasting : anticipated expenses for FNF and SNF (assessment of the demand for fresh fuel, forecast of the cost of FNF based on the assumption of convergence of the prices on the external and internal markets, transition to 18-months fuel cycle, new price forming rules for SNF) ; anticipated expenses for fist core loads; anticipated expenses for amortization and depreciation costs (commissioning plant and equipment, commissioning plant and equipment, modernization); anticipated expenses for labor costs (growth of productivity, optimization of stuff, incentive system); assessment of the dedicated reserves for security and decommissioning; consolidated estimate of other conditionally-fixed expenses; estimated profit.
12 Forecast of operational costs Year201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Expenses, total 277,6281,5307,0283,5355,408,0474,0483, 8561, 7627, 0652, 5694,8 Including: Operational costs 56,064,673, 382, 8100,2108,1122,9127,6139,9144,1147,9152,2 Depreciation and amortization 17,222,729,136,347,852,064, 469,282,686, 498, 5108, 2 Fuel 29,736, 045,154,968,285, 099,7104,2124,3141,1148,2152,1 Dedicated reserves 174,6158,3159,5109,5138,9162,6186,1182,8215,5252,4257,8282,2 Bln. rub. (without VAT) Operational costs of Rosenergoatom OJSC (including dedicated reserves for security and decommissioning) for the period of 2011-2022.
13 III. Assessment of the investment sources of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period up to 2022. -The purpose of the forecasts is to consistently: establish the possibility for covering the investment demands of Rosenergoatom from its own earned funds; identify any deficits of funding sources; determine the possibilities of attracting and servicing credits.
14 Year201120122013201420152016 Investment resource 251, 9255,0299,6249,8238,8197,5 Investment demand 302,2306,0315,2248,8172,2164,0 Balance-50,3-51,0-15,6+1,0+66,6+33,5 Year201720182019202020212022 Investment resource 230,5230,7273,0314,1327,3358,4 Investment demand 142,4212,5168,3309,7304,9358,1 Balance+88,1+18,2+104,7+4,4+22,4+0,3 Conclusion: In certain periods there is an imbalance of investment demands and investment capabilities of Rosenergoatom. Bln.rub. III. Assessment of the investment sources of Rosenergoatom OJSC for the period up to 2022.
15 Objectives of Rosenergoatom OJSC Search for new businesses and competencies, maximization of revenues Improvement of the internal economic efficiency, reduction of relative costs Increased economic efficiency of spending the investment resources and consequential optimization of the investment demands.