Presentation on theme: "energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector"— Presentation transcript:
1 energy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vector IESenergy strategy of Russia (ES – 2020) East vectorVitaly Bushuev- General director Stats Institute of Energy Strategy Minpromenergy of RussiaMoscowMay 2005
2 Share of FEC branches in national economy of Russia in 2003, (%) IESIn GDP a share of FEC 25,4 %, including:In export a share of FEC 56,3 %, including:Receipts of tax and customs payments in the consolidated budget. A share of FEC of 32,8 %, including:PetroleumGasElectropowerCoal
3 IESEnergy streams of Russia ( million tons of conditional fuel – mln t c.f.)ExportCoal 162.8Coal 33,9Petroleum 269,3Gas 213,3Gas 684.1Natural fuelExtraction and manufacture1513,1Autogasoline, diesel fuel, fuel black oil 82,0Other mineral oil 24,9electric power 4,4Petroleum 539,6Hydroelectricity 55,5Nuclear Energy 44,1Other 27,0Resources - allCoal 143,1Petroleum & mineral oil 59,7Gas 473,7Coal 13,0Petroleum 8,9Gas 7,8ImportAutogasoline 38,4, diesel fuel 34,8, fuel black oil 39,7 electric power 95,3 Other 27,0Thermal power plants & Boiler-houses 236,1Other receiptsInternal consumptionRussia sends on the world market more than 40 % of all power resources (from them more than 1/4 falls to crude petroleum and natural gas).In structure of internal consumption 1/2 falls to natural gas and 50 % of this consumption falls to fuel needs of power stations and boiler-houses.
4 Forecast dynamics of growth of GDP and consumption of energy Russia for the period till 2020 and in relation to a level of 2000IESGrowth of GDP and consumption of energy at specific power consumption 2000Share making savings of energy an increasing result by 2000, including technological and organizational (ТиО) and structural (С)Forecast consumption of energy without change of structure of economyForecast consumption of energyYear AllChange of structure of economy and technological measures of economy of energy will reduce specific consumption of energy of GDP by % by 2010 and from 45 up to 55 % by Thus up to 1/2 growth of economy may be received due to change of its structure without increase of expenses of energy, 20 more % will be given with the technological savings of energy and about 1/3 gains of GDP will demand increase of a power consumption.
5 Strategic reference points ESStrategic reference points1. Energy safety2. Energy efficiency3. Budgetary efficiency of energy4. Ecological safety
6 Energy politics of Russia Using bowels2. A home market3. Fuel and energy balance4. A regional politics5. An external energy politics6. An innovational politics
7 An external energy politics Maintenance of competitiveness in the traditional markets (Europe)2. Diversify structures of export( the mineral oil, the liquefied natural gas, the electric power)3. Diversify commodity markets( growth of a share of export to the countries ATR:Petroleum about 3 % up to 30 %,Gas about 0 % up to 15 %,Development of the market of USA)
8 IESThe forecast of a gain of stocks of petroleum in Russia till 2020 on regionsPrograms and should provide conditions of licensing of bowels expanded reproduction of mineral-raw-material base:Gain of stocks of petroleum in quantity 7,5-10 billion т.Thus probable stocks and resources of the distributed fund in the basic areas of an oil recovery may provide reproduction of mineral-raw-material base the nearest years no more than on %.Other stocks should be added due to investigation and development of new territories and water areas of Russia. Attraction of investments in volume billion is necessaryThe main areas of a gain of stocks of hydrocarbon fuel material will be West-Siberian, Leno-Tungus and Timano-Pechersk provinces.Far East (Sakhalin) East-Siberian European part West-SiberianOptimum variantFar East (Sakhalin) East-Siberian European part West-SiberianModerate variant
9 In total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic m IESResource base of the gas industry (the reconnoitered stocks of gas), trillion cubic mIn total on Russia – 47,2 trillion cubic mOpen Society " Gazprom " - supervises about 60 % of stocks of gas of Russia
10 Manufacture of initial fuel and energy resources in Russia IESModerate variant Optimum variantmln t c.f.mln t c.f.Nuclear Energy, billion kwhmln t c.f.mln t c.f.mln t c.f.Hydroelectri-citi, billion kwhmln t c.f.mln t c.f.mln t c.f.mln t c.f.Coal, mln tGas, billion cubic mPetroleum, mln t
11 The forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million т IESThe forecast of an oil recovery in Russia till 2020, million тAttraction of investments in extraction in volume $ billion is necessaryThe factors determining prospects of branchQuality of the prepared raw-material baseLevel of the world prices for petroleumTax policy of the stateAttraction of necessary volumes of investmentsIn total on RussiaOptimum variantModerate variantCritical variantFar EastEuropean partWest-SiberianEast-Siberian
13 The synthetic long-term forecast of the prices for petroleum IES
14 Territorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м) IESTerritorial structure of extraction of gas (billion cubic м)Optimum variantEuropean part West-SiberianEast-Siberian Far EastModerate variant(the forecast)Essentially the territorial structure of extraction of gas will change: the share of Eastern Siberia and Far East considerably will increase at reduction of densities of Western Siberia.
15 Export of energy resources from Russia IESExport of energy resources from RussiaDominant exported energy resources during all period petroleum and gas will stay.Export of all, mln t c.f.Optimum variant Moderate variantPetroleum & mineral oil, mln tGas, billion cubic mElectric power, billion kwhCoal, mln t c.f.
16 Circuits oil- and gas mains IESCircuits oil mains in territory of RussiaThe plan of creation gas mains networks in Northeast AsiaCircuits gas mains in territory of RussiaDirections of gas streamsPlanned routes of pipelinesPossible routes of pipelines
17 Pipeline projects in Eastern Siberia and on Far East IESOil pipelines workingGas mains workingOil pipelines projectedGas mains projected
18 The basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coal IESThe basic inter-regional streams of the Russian coalConsumption of own resourcesNegative Balance of export -Positive importFreight traffics of coal, mln t c.f. (numerator-2002, denominator-2020)Essential change of territorial structure of extraction and consumption of coal causes increase of inter-regional deliveries of firm fuel in a direction the East -West about 65 million т in 2002 up to 90 million т in 2010 г and 130 million т in 2020 г
19 Structure of manufacture of the electric power in 2020 and priorities of territorial development of electric power industry (optimistic variant)IESIncrease of manufacture on coal ТЭС and the decision of a problem of closed capacities of the Siberian hydroelectric power stationEuropean part932 billion kwhSiberian and Far East 433 billion kwhEconomy of gas in the European part 7-8 billion cubic m per one yearEuropean partFar EastSiberianHydroelectric power station, ТЭС and gas thermal power stations in citiesThe maximal development of the atomic power station; Modernisation ТЭС on gas; development ГТГУ-ГТУТЭС at a corner and water-power engineering
20 Wind and geothermal energy of Russia Geothermal energy of Russia IESWind and geothermal energy of RussiaWind energy of RussiaGeothermal energy of Russia
21 Electric power industry The forecast of investment needs of a fuel and energy complex (billion US dollars)IESPetroleum industryThe gas industryThe coal industryElectric power industryThe total amount of investments in reconstruction and development of power sector may make from 260 up to 300 billion dollars in and from 400 up to 510 billion dollars the next decade. The share of a fuel and energy complex in the general investments of Russia will make % in , will decrease up to % in and up to % to 2020.
22 Dynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t) IESDynamics of emissions of hotbed gases and firm substances (mln t)The level of emissions appropriate to obligations on Кiot to the reportbillion t equivalentOptimum variantModerate variantVolume of quotas for Russia for the first budgetary periodEmissions of firm substancesThe volume of emissions of hotbed gases in fuel and energy sphere to 2010 will make % from a level 1990 and even to 2020 will not reach this level.