1. Trade Union Sustainable Strategies -the future of Energy ETUI Conference David Tarren ADAPT International Manchester, 24 th October 2012

2. 250,000 jobs disappeared in energy from 1990 to 1998 (ECOTEC) Liberalisation of the sector main driver Ageing workforce in Electricity and Gas Difficult to isolate Gas and Electricity from European Commission categories Studies by GHK, ECOTEC, ADAPT and Syndex among others Background

3. Just Transition A shift towards a sustainable and environmentally friendly economy, based on social dialogue in a way that promotes high economic growth and investments in low-carbon technologies, while ensuring a smooth social transition and the development of skilling and reskilling programs (or just new skills) and the creation of quality jobs

4. Research Syndex and WMP – 71 000 new jobs created in RES – 31 000 in CCS... all by 2030 GHK – Anticipate change, plan and prepare, provide social support measures – investment still insufficient – Restructuring relies on strategic choice of companies – Job opportunities seen through anticipation

5. Greenpeace – 42% of worldwide and 86% of European electricity from renewables by 2030 – 2 million more jobs in the energy sector between 2010 and 2030 European Commission – Increase of jobs in RES – Decrease in traditional energy – 2.3 million jobs by 2020 Research

6. Investment in Capacity

7. Number of jobs depends on geography and technology The energy sector will employ more workers than today Retraining of existing workers will be key Engagement with workforce crucial Employers in sector poor at introducing environmental awareness training programmes Work in the future will require a higher level of skill Key Issues

8. Anticipation of Change Employer skill strategies must anticipate future skill needs in order to establish effective training programmes Anticipation of skills for the future must balance the demand from industry with the supply of labour with the right skills Just over a third of employers say company has undertaken specific initiatives to forecast their future skill and competency requirements Skills investment must include improvements of the training and educational infrastructure But must also consider incentives to motivate workers to participate in training

9. Views of Unions and Employers Key issues for the transition (in order of priority): R&D Investment Skills and Competencies Unions and Employers consider technology as the main driver, but next..... – Liberalisation by unions – Climate Change by Employers

10. Occupational Change Decreases in transport workers, labourers (low skills) In the coming decade the occupations likely to see the largest increase in number of workers are: – Professional/Technical – Followed by Managers – Then Service/Sales Social dialogue is taking place across Europe, but...... Not a lot is happening on the ground. Nearly 50% of unions and employers surveyed said social dialogue had taken place but nothing had been done as a result !

11. Ageing Workforce What percentage of your workforce are over 50 years of age ?

12. Demographic Change 2004 to 2012 Relatively easy to fill skills gaps and shortages Employers should begin examining future requirements and introducing strategic plans for their survival over the next two periods This period must be dedicated to ensure measures are put in place and employment practices are established to weather future change

13. Demographic Change 2013 to 2019 Companies will witness tightening labour market and difficulties in finding the right skills Those that have not established in-house strategic training programmes and new employment practices will begin to feel the pain Impact of older workers retiring and not being replaced with younger workers will begin to bite

14. Demographic Change 2020 onwards High point of ageing effect across Europe In this period the number of people of working age drops, despite improvements in participation rates Employers will compete with each other to recruit the right number of people with the right skills Employers who have not tackled the ageing effect will be fighting for survival

15. David Tarren davidtarren@adaptinternational.eu +44 (0) 7979 241989 Questions?