1. 1 UKCES: Skills for Jobs and Growth Challenges for Innovative Training: Quality and Competitiveness Fundacion Real Fabrica de Tapices, Madrid 24/25 November 2009 Professor Mike Campbell OBE Director of Research and Policy UK Commission for Employment and Skills

2. 2  UKCES: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills  Prosperity: Jobs, Productivity and Skills  International Benchmarks of Skill Levels: Today and Tomorrow  Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’  Key Messages: an agenda for action  The Way Ahead? Outline

3. 3  Assess (e.g. Ambition 2020)  Agenda (e.g. National Strategic Skills Audit)  Advise (e.g. Skills Strategy)  Advocate (e.g. Now is the time) The UK Commission for Employment and Skills

4. 4 High employment/ high productivity High employment/ low productivity Low employment/ low productivity Low employment/ high productivity Productivity: GDP per hour worked (US$ at current prices), 2007 Employment: Employment populations ratio 2007, all persons 15-64 Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22 Prosperity = Jobs x Productivity

5. 5 Other Measures of Performance WEF 1 IMD 2 Global Competitiveness Index Higher Education and Training World Competitiveness Rank EmploymentProductivityLabour Market ManagementEducation Spain33 395320525032 UK1318212817303615 Note 1 The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10, World Economic Forum Note 2 World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009, Institute for Management Development Measure Country

6. 6

7. 7 (continued)

8. 8 The International Skills Position

9. 9 Participation of Adults in Lifelong Learning

10. 10 UK Position: 15th in OECD for ‘older workers’ 21st in OECD for ‘younger workers’ Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.2a Our Progress and Current Position

11. 11 Our Prospects Projected International Skills Position 2020

12. 12 Projected International Skills Position 2020 …… cont’d

13. 13  It is crucial to raise skill levels – more people and to higher levels  But: these increased skill levels only make economic sense for people and for business, if there are the jobs available to make use of those skills Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’ Past and likely future qualification structure of jobs, shares in %, EU-25+ Total requirement qualification level, projected change 2006-20, in millions, EU-25+

14. 14  Jobs/Skills Mismatch (1) Skill Shortages and Skill Gaps –Professional/Technical –Employability  Jobs/Skills Mismatch (2) Over-Qualification/Under-Employment –Unemployment –Under-utilisation of skills  Jobs/Skills Mismatch (3) The demand for high level skills (skill requirements) exceeds supply (skills availability) BUT: –Variations in level of demand for high level skills; –Relatively slow increase in demand (skilled jobs/skill requirements); –Relatively rapid increase in supply (skilled people/skills available)  Demand: Business Ambition Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’

15. 15 Source: Ambition 2020, Charts 7.1 & 7.2, pp 115-116 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6 Slow progress to a high skill economy: change in skilled jobs between 1998 and 2006

16. 16 Difference between Skills Supply & Demand: Change between 1998 and 2006 Source: Ambition 2020, Chart 7.1, p 115 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6

17. 17  We need to go beyond: (i)Skills upgrading; and (ii)a better match between skill requirements and skills availability Business Ambition  The ‘virtuous circle’ of raising skills demand and supply  Business Ambition: Skills as a ‘derived’demand –Economic Policy –Skill Utilisation –Management and Leadership

18. 18 Match Mismatch Positive Economic and Social Outcomes Supply of Skills Employment Demand Negative Economic and Social Outcomes Economic Performance EmploymentReduced InequalityProductivity Required Workforce Business Strategy Management & Leadership Skills Utilisation Economy – level/structure Industrial Policy Economic Policy Other Drivers Potential Workforce Skills Attainment Learning provision Accredited (Qualification) Informal (Training) Skills Investment Individual, Employer, Government Guidance – firms & people Demand Jobs Supply Shortages and skills gaps Unemployment and Inactivity ‘Over-skilled’ / ‘Under-employed Migration Key Messages: An Agenda for Action

19. 19 Maximising individual motivation and opportunity for skills and sustainable employment For the journey in and on in work The Way Ahead?

20. 20  Raise Skill Levels: Our People –Raise Aspirations: The Case for Skills –High Quality Provision and Progression –High Quality Information, Advice and Guidance (Counselling) –Empower Learners: Choice and Personal Learning Accounts The Way Ahead?

21. 21 Increasing employer ambition, engagement and investment in skills World beating businesses

22. 22  Raise Skill Demand: Our Employers –Increase Ambition: The Business Case for Skills –High Value Added, High Growth Businesses, Leadership and Management –Labour Market Intelligence, Foresight and Matching Supply and Demand –Employer Networks, Collaboration and ‘High Performance Workplaces’ The Way Ahead?

23. 23 Building a more strategic, agile and labour market led employment and skills system Skills Market Invest in the wisdom of customers

24. 24  Improve Provision and the ‘System’ –Increase ‘Responsiveness’: Trust Providers and use ‘outcome based’ Performance Measures –Prioritise Public Funding towards Economically Valuable Skills and increase ‘Co-Investment’ –Create a flexible, Module Qualifications System relevant/responsive to Labour Market needs The Way Ahead?

25. 25 A workforce with poor skills not only makes their own lives poorer, it makes all of our lives poorer ….. and a highly skilled workforce will not only make their own lives richer, it will make all of our lives richer